That's really interesting fiki, you trade at the DPOC for the very same reasons that I avoid trading it. I avoid trades that are not outside the 1st stdev bands of the vwap. I find that at the center, anything can happen and it's 50/50. When I trade above the bands then I feel there is a higher probability of a move back to the vwap/dpoc than away from it. Sometimes that doesn't work and I get stopped out but then I can look for continuation setups going with the move.
CP: I think that at the poc u get more time to analyze the situation but like u i rather enter at the extrems at the 1st or 2nd std.dev. the trade usually plays out faster and pays better. but its "riskier" if u dont have a hard stop becuse if buyers/sellers start initiating it can go fast in the opposite direction. at poc. it usually makes a pause..
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I have seen that website before. He trades a method called the universal method. He is using Keltner Channels and a fast stochastic and a slow stochastic and he trades between NPOC. I don't know all the details, but he uses Ensign software and has the setups programmed to tell him when a short or long is coming. I don't really want to look into more methods and I don't want to start adding indicators. With MD the volume breakdown is volume based so I'm okay with that.
About the NPOC yesterday at 81.20, I don't see that on the Ninja version of MP, but there could still be one. One thing I see about yesterdays action is that it was mostly vertical until it got to the NPOC at the 82.8 area. When I say vertical I don't just mean trending, but the profile is skinny. A skinny profile may produce low volume on the horizontal axis, but its my understanding that a skinny profile is high volume on the Y axis. One may call this professional money or institutional money, or whatever, but regardless, it is strong and probably not something to jump in front of.
Last edited by David_R; March 30th, 2010 at 06:17 PM.
Reason: Added last paragraph
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david, i meant the VAL of the previous distributions as shown in the picture. sorry for that. i mainly look at the splits and merges. i just keep en eye on the daily profiles to get a sense of structure and context... concerning the splits and mergers. i´m just finishing steidlemayers 141 west jackson and found some writing about it:
"Prior to this change (refering to the 24h trading), we had already started to remove chronological time from the day profiles, so, as the market changed, we could change with it by removing chronological time altogether. This was accomplished by splitting and merging market data into smaller, larger, and different segments of market activity regardless of their origin date. These provided development structures and gave background control, promoting the move to market development time"
I'm not suggesting we add Keltner & Stochastics. Those are just aids for him to enter & exit. IMHO the important concept I learned from his page is fading moves to the naked POC's. How you enter & exit can vary. In my case I'd look for professional selling leading up to the naked POC and maybe a cycle turning point. I use vwap bands, MP, and cycles for exits.
I'm curious if fading a move to the naked POC is a good trade. it makes sense to me because the day of the naked POC there were lots of buyers & sellers. If price drops below and then comes back up, it seems unlikely buyers would start buying because they could have bought it cheaper. So it seems more likely that sellers would be more active.
I totally agree. That's a great point and something I really need to keep in mind. I have a bad habit of shorting strong moves up. Judging from the volume I saw leading up to it I wasn't the only one.