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CL Market Profile Analysis
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CL Market Profile Analysis

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
sweden
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: ES
 
fiki's Avatar
 
Posts: 212 since Jun 2009
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I try to avoid fading/taking position at the poc since this is the recent fair value. I look to buy under value and sell over. The thing I donīt like about positioning my self at the poc is the chop. Away from value (unfair high/low or VAH/VAL) it usually moves faster. Eighter rejecting or going through. But if u buy/sell at the poc you usually have to edure chopp like today...

a neutral day today. these are more unusual. only about 25% last year. these usually close in the middle (62%). if they close in one end thereīs usually som follow trough the next day. at least during the ib...

the last few days feel a bit toppy. d-distribution days and now a neutral day. plus the bulk of volume over the composite poc show sellers...

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  #42 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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David_R View Post
C,

In my opinion you fade it at a specified area such as a high volume node and or POC of a prior day, or the high, low, close of a prior day. Some area of significance. Of course use the foot print to determine if the fade looks like it might play out. I'm not a fan of just fading a gap.

D

Yes, there was a naked POC at 1170. Price hit that level during the globex and we get a down cycle on the 4500 tick chart. Price retested during the session. Also I posted a cycles chart that showed bearish cycles on 5 timeframes. But not only that I already had a bearish opinion and was looking for an excuse to get short.

I don't fade gaps either. They often get filled but sometimes it's a week later and the ones that don't get filled until months later can ruin you.

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  #43 (permalink)
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fiki View Post
I try to avoid fading/taking position at the poc since this is the recent fair value. I look to buy under value and sell over. The thing I donīt like about positioning my self at the poc is the chop. Away from value (unfair high/low or VAH/VAL) it usually moves faster. Eighter rejecting or going through. But if u buy/sell at the poc you usually have to edure chopp like today...

a neutral day today. these are more unusual. only about 25% last year. these usually close in the middle (62%). if they close in one end thereīs usually som follow trough the next day. at least during the ib...

the last few days feel a bit toppy. d-distribution days and now a neutral day. plus the bulk of volume over the composite poc show sellers...

Very good advice, thanks for sharing. I agree, I avoid the DPOC and VWAP and look for extremes away from it. But from what I've read, if we move away from yesterday's POC and hit an untouched POC from a few days ago, that "naked" POC can act as resistance.

In this case I'm doing a swing trade and my swing trades are based on a confluence of a lot of criteria. That 1170 naked poc just seemed like a nice place to enter.

Even if we don't move much today, if I see the professionals selling then that'll be good enough for me to hold it.

In my journal I said "trying a short on ES". For some reason I didn't have as much confidence as I usually do. When the 45min signals a down cycle I'll be more confident. But I don't like waiting because there's always the chance that it'll happen late.

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  #44 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
Very good advice, thanks for sharing. I agree, I avoid the DPOC and VWAP and look for extremes away from it. But from what I've read, if we move away from yesterday's POC and hit an untouched POC from a few days ago, that "naked" POC can act as resistance.

In this case I'm doing a swing trade and my swing trades are based on a confluence of a lot of criteria. That 1170 naked poc just seemed like a nice place to enter.

Even if we don't move much today, if I see the professionals selling then that'll be good enough for me to hold it.

In my journal I said "trying a short on ES". For some reason I didn't have as much confidence as I usually do. When the 45min signals a down cycle I'll be more confident. But I don't like waiting because there's always the chance that it'll happen late.


That is my understanding as well. The POC and or High volume nodes act as support and resistance. It does make sense to enter beyond the POC at the extreme of unfair value, but quite often the POC or high volume area stops the move.

In the chart today CL rallied hard and stopped at the NPOC.

The comment on the chart about a long at a test of Fridays value applies to Mondays trading 3/29 not for Tuesday 3/30

David

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-cl32910.jpg  

Last edited by David_R; March 30th, 2010 at 01:48 AM. Reason: Clarify comment on chart.
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  #45 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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David_R View Post
That is my understanding as well. The POC and or High volume nodes act as support and resistance. It does make sense to enter beyond the POC at the extreme of unfair value, but quite often the POC or high volume area stops the move.

In the chart today CL rallied hard and stopped at the NPOC.

The comment on the chart about a long at a test of Fridays value applies to Mondays trading 3/29 not for Tuesday 3/30

David

Excellent find with the naked poc. I was reading about that yesterday and I think it's a really good trade. Just didn't work out on the ES. On CL it broke through one NPOC at 81.20 and I took some shorts there but got creamed. But I'm going to keep practicing those.

This is one of the pages that I read about this method yesterday:

Front Page

Maybe we can work together on testing out this idea?

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  #46 (permalink)
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very hard to read orderflow today (at least for me). bars on heavy selling closed up and bars on buying down...

a possible roadmap for today in the es. on a daily profile it looks like a d-distribution day. hopefully the bottom is in...

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  #47 (permalink)
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fiki View Post
very hard to read orderflow today (at least for me). bars on heavy selling closed up and bars on buying down...

a possible roadmap for today in the es. on a daily profile it looks like a d-distribution day. hopefully the bottom is in...

Difficult for me too. I only got one good move out of CL. The rest was choppy.

My read of the ES volume is that professionals are accumulating and continued doing so down to the low today. The 135min cycle chart is about to go bullish so there is some confluence. For some reason I can't bring myself to take a long trade on ES.

What is minus development? I've heard that term but don't know what it means.

Thanks fiki.

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  #48 (permalink)
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fwiw I have been thinking of these areas more in terms of value, so POC is the killing field or balance of value. I would say it is only worth executing trades in this area if the distribution has a strong bias in terms of direction.?

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  #49 (permalink)
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i didnīt eighter take the long mostly since i focused on the orderflow and got frustraded after beeing shaken out of my short. so i missed the bigger picture.

minus develeopment is what didnīt happen and where inefficiency predominates in the market. like a gap or single prints. no trading took place there. as opposed to a efficient balanced market. this is usally good support/resistance or leeds to fast action if the market starts to trade there. like a zipper...

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  #50 (permalink)
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rassi. the center can be a good spot for a trade and many times its "safer" since the market usually spends a lot of time there so if the position is bad u usually get a chance of getting out. in the extrems it moves much faster and if you are not carefull its easy to end upp with a loss. still i fits my personality better. iīm not a patient man. it kills me looking at my position for an hour and seeing it go +1 -1 +1 .... if you look at my avatar thats mostly my trading state

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