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CL Market Profile Analysis
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CL Market Profile Analysis

  #271 (permalink)
Just starting out...
New York
 
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Big Mike View Post
@DeadCatBouncer, I'll guess you went short initially @ 10am and added @ 11:15am. It's what I would have done anyway, lol. I am looking at chart in post #251.

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Mike

Nice Mike!

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  #272 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Jose, Ca
 
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David_R's Avatar
 
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DeadCatBouncer View Post
Hey David, I'm going to be Frank with you, but your MP charts scare the crap out of me. Its like when your a kid and you're in your dimly lit bedroom and you hear weird noises coming from your closet and get up to go and open the closet door. That point where the door is just slightly cracked and you peer around to take a look with your flashlight waiting for something to jump on your face and kill ya. Yeah, well that's kinda how I feel looking at those MP charts!

HOWEVER, even though you were wrong about where I added a couple of contracts, you weren't far off from either of my scale-ins. I'll tell you why where you suggested that I added some contracts was not the best spot. But, I will say that if you can articulate to me why you chose that level that we may be onto something because it would have been nice to have added my heavy scale-in where you suggested that I may have.

I will say that one thing that isn't smart with going short in that neighborhood is doing so above the S1. Although I scaled in higher than that earlier, but that was in an effort to break even.


DCB,

I understand about the MP charts. I really end up thinking its all the same stuff after a while. Pivots end up lining up with MP levels as well as fib levels. Its different, but the same just displayed some other way. I like MP because it takes volume into account and the because it shows where 70% of the activity took place. Is it worth using. I don't know.

I marked up your chart regarding entry. waiting on a break of S2 would make me feel as though I missed the boat.

D

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  #273 (permalink)
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DCB,

Does coloring the volume based on the bar close really provide a benefit? The bar may close higher than it opened, but if the prof money is selling into it then the color of the volume is of no help. Yes/no?

d

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  #274 (permalink)
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Quebec
 
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I was curious to evaluate this CL chart against my main chart i use to handle most of my trades. I must admit, i have never traded CL. On this example, i did not looked at volume or important key levels. I am just gauging the activities in terms of strength and weakness as it appears in my suite of lagging indicators.

Here it is using a 3min chart as this is my main interval usually:

2 arrows mean a unit has just been opened, 1 arrow a unit has just been closed. 1 unit can be 1 or more contract.

P.S. i just want to mention that the Particle Oscillator is very good at spotting areas or price levels where adding to our position becomes possible. When it makes a pullback to its zero line then usually this is the best time to act. Most of my entries coincide with a return to the zero line. Lagging indicators like that i can take a dozen ;-)


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Last edited by trendisyourfriend; August 22nd, 2010 at 09:27 PM.
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  #275 (permalink)
Just starting out...
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David_R View Post
DCB,

I understand about the MP charts. I really end up thinking its all the same stuff after a while. Pivots end up lining up with MP levels as well as fib levels. Its different, but the same just displayed some other way. I like MP because it takes volume into account and the because it shows where 70% of the activity took place. Is it worth using. I don't know.

I marked up your chart regarding entry. waiting on a break of S2 would make me feel as though I missed the boat.

D

First let me start by saying that taking the 3rd short that I took at 73.89 was the easiest position to take on Friday. When you know you're about to make a boatload of money in a relatively short timeframe and all the heat is now gone is a very freeing feeling for me personally. Even if I didn't get in earlier I still would have jumped on that trade. As for missing the boat David, respectfully you are way off. David, you cannot expect to cionsistently ride the bus on its whole route. On a good day I'd much prefer taking 3 lower risk trades for 20-30 ticks each than one big ass (riskier) trade for 60-90 ticks. I just don't have the brass for it. When you're trading size (self perceived or not) and you trade for a living you take the little trades all day long. What's missing the boat mean to you? Does it mean that you didn't get on a 60tick trade? Is there something wrong with 20-25 ticks or something? What if you were trading a 30-lot or a 50-lot? Is being confident to profit 6k-12k on 20-25 tick trade in 60-90 seconds not good? David, I'll do it all day long when I see it.

I will say the mistake I made years ago when all I knew was basic VSA was that I was never happy with my daily profits trading 1-3 contracts because I was always waiting for the heavy breakout trying to bank 60-100 ticks a trade LOL! I was too greedy and way underleveraged for what I wanted to make for profit. Thats why when people think that they can bank $1k/day trading 1-2 contracts WITH ANY CONSISTENCY, they're nuts, and they won't do it. All it takes is one bad trade and they'll get a haircut/margin call, then its basically over like it was for me in the beginning. Be upside down at the end of open outcry and your F'ed on an underleveraged account. That's why I always restrict my margin to 50% of the full weight I can carry just in case I get in trouble I can lower my purchase price substantially by scaling in as many contracts as possible at lower prices (if I'm long) without coming too close to being called on margin at the end of the open outcry regardless of where my current losses are. So say hypothetically I go long at 75.50 30 contracts and I was wrong an the market drops to 75.00. i can choose to get out or based on certain criteria that I am looking for, I can also buy another 30 contracts at 75.00 making my break even 75.25. Now, what needs to be considered is will I have enough in my account at the end of open outcry to not be called on margin for some of those cars? Well, you never allow yourself to get too deep that the rigged-against-you exchange takes some of your cars away because then, in this example, your break even will rise well above the break even at 75.25 and now you really have a problem on your hands. Account management David, combined with order management and a realistic profit target in ticks NOT DOLLARS.

So no, I would never feel like I missed the boat at 73.89 short. I was happy to see that the party was occuring and that I just got there too early. Overall, I was right about the trade, its just that the bus came to pick me up about an hour late 8^) I musta been riding the short bus that day...

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  #276 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
DCB,

Does coloring the volume based on the bar close really provide a benefit? The bar may close higher than it opened, but if the prof money is selling into it then the color of the volume is of no help. Yes/no?

d

It helps me see better thats all. Just personal preference. I can more easily track divergence with the colors so to never confuse one bar with another. It makes things easier for me so that I can be quicker to act instead of taking the extra 2 seconds to double check that I'm lining up the right bar with the right bar.

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  #277 (permalink)
Just starting out...
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Posts: 26 since Aug 2010
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And David, just b/c I have the 20day WMA doesn't mean I trade by it. Please don't, unless you're a scalper. Also, you made some good points in the marking up of my chart but i can't respond to them right now. Need a break brother. I'll get back to you on it though.

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  #278 (permalink)
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DeadCatBouncer View Post
First let me start by saying that taking the 3rd short that I took at 73.89 was the easiest position to take on Friday. When you know you're about to make a boatload of money in a relatively short timeframe and all the heat is now gone is a very freeing feeling for me personally. Even if I didn't get in earlier I still would have jumped on that trade. As for missing the boat David, respectfully you are way off. David, you cannot expect to cionsistently ride the bus on its whole route. On a good day I'd much prefer taking 3 lower risk trades for 20-30 ticks each than one big ass (riskier) trade for 60-90 ticks. I just don't have the brass for it. When you're trading size (self perceived or not) and you trade for a living you take the little trades all day long. What's missing the boat mean to you? Does it mean that you didn't get on a 60tick trade? Is there something wrong with 20-25 ticks or something? What if you were trading a 30-lot or a 50-lot? Is being confident to profit 6k-12k on 20-25 tick trade in 60-90 seconds not good? David, I'll do it all day long when I see it.

I will say the mistake I made years ago when all I knew was basic VSA was that I was never happy with my daily profits trading 1-3 contracts because I was always waiting for the heavy breakout trying to bank 60-100 ticks a trade LOL! I was too greedy and way underleveraged for what I wanted to make for profit. Thats why when people think that they can bank $1k/day trading 1-2 contracts WITH ANY CONSISTENCY, they're nuts, and they won't do it. All it takes is one bad trade and they'll get a haircut/margin call, then its basically over like it was for me in the beginning. Be upside down at the end of open outcry and your F'ed on an underleveraged account. That's why I always restrict my margin to 50% of the full weight I can carry just in case I get in trouble I can lower my purchase price substantially by scaling in as many contracts as possible at lower prices (if I'm long) without coming too close to being called on margin at the end of the open outcry regardless of where my current losses are. So say hypothetically I go long at 75.50 30 contracts and I was wrong an the market drops to 75.00. i can choose to get out or based on certain criteria that I am looking for, I can also buy another 30 contracts at 75.00 making my break even 75.25. Now, what needs to be considered is will I have enough in my account at the end of open outcry to not be called on margin for some of those cars? Well, you never allow yourself to get too deep that the rigged-against-you exchange takes some of your cars away because then, in this example, your break even will rise well above the break even at 75.25 and now you really have a problem on your hands. Account management David, combined with order management and a realistic profit target in ticks NOT DOLLARS.

So no, I would never feel like I missed the boat at 73.89 short. I was happy to see that the party was occuring and that I just got there too early. Overall, I was right about the trade, its just that the bus came to pick me up about an hour late 8^) I musta been riding the short bus that day...


I'm not saying that 25 or 30 tics is a bad trade. I'll take those all day long even if I never see a 60 or 100 tick winner. What I mean is that from the visual perspective price had fallen a fair amount how can we be sure it doesn't reverse from where you enter just like it did on you the first time. What you called a little heat I call a significant amount of heat. Yes, I probably am way off. :-)

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  #279 (permalink)
Elite Member
Englewood
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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swing trading

Hi,
I am new here, I am quite familiar with Market Profile and several strategies, but they all are for day trading. I am going back to work, which will force to star taking overnight and swing positions. Can someone share any thoughts or strategies for swing trading base on Market Profile?

Thanks

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  #280 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Russia
 
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Hello! Tell me please how to set these figures in the MarketDelta ?

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