CL Market Profile Analysis - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


CL Market Profile Analysis
Updated: Views / Replies:47,365 / 280
Created: by David_R Attachments:133

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 133  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

CL Market Profile Analysis

  #261 (permalink)
Just starting out...
New York
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NT ToS
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 26 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 6 given, 36 received


David_R View Post
DCB,

In Market profile the intervals of time, or period are generally 30 minutes long. In essence its a 30 minute candle or bar chart except that instead of candles or bars you have what are called TPO's or Time Price Opportunities and each TPO period is indicated by a letter. In the first 30 minute period of the day say from 9:30 to 10 would be period A and A is used for the entire 30 minute period. From 10-10:30 that would be period B and it is used for the entire 30 minute period and then C,D,E until the close. Every time price prints at a level the letter for the corresponding TPO period is printed. For example, lets say at 6:45 am price hits 75.00. Since that is the first period of the day you would see an "A" at 75.00. Depending on the interval or period of the day a corresponding letter would print at the same level of 75.00 if price were to trade there. So, the time component comes into play in two forms. There could be more, but I know of two. 1) If price spends very little time at a price you will see very few TPO prints. Lets say price opens at 75.00 and starts to move away immediately and doesn't come back to 75.00 all day. You would see "A" at 75.00 and that's it. Lets say price stops at 74.00 in the same "A" period and begins to "consolidate or oscillate back and forth between 75.10 and 74.90 the rest of the day. That means that every other TPO period or interval for the rest of the day would see or touch the price of 75.00. You would see A,B,C,D,E,F,G,...etc all printing at 75.00. That would mean price is spending a lot of "TIME" at this level. I will stop here, but I could go on. See the pic for a visual.


Forgot to say that the reason time is important is because if price is spending a lot of time at a price or zone it means price is in balance. Both sides agree on value. Once price moves away directionally from this area of balance, or where a lot of time was spent, it can be considered to be support or resistance depending on the direction of the move. The reason why price that spends little time in an area is important is because, if it is in deed true that it takes volume to move price away from an area swiftly leaving only TPO prints from one time period (AKA single prints), that can be considered institutional or big money activity. The concept is that they will defend their positions if price were to return.
David

Thank you very much for your time David. Considering that I somewhat talked MP down initially, I appreciate your patience with my lack of truly understanding that MP was not one of those classic lagging indicators, so again, thanks!

I need to spend a little time trying to absorb this data so that I can possibly try to see if and how its worth any value to the way I trade. And it may very hold some supporting value to me. Is there any way for you to take my chart from 8/20 and extrapolate any useful correlations related to your MP chart? I'm sure this early in my understanding of MP that I won't be able to do it, yet.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DeadCatBouncer for this post:
 
  #262 (permalink)
Just starting out...
New York
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NT ToS
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 26 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 6 given, 36 received


David_R View Post
Isn't Time and Sales reading the tape, or are you referring to something else when you talk about the tape? I thought you viewed reading the tape as important.

D

As I stated earlier, there are some variations of how one can read the tape. Sure T&S is reading the tape, and so is watching price action on a ladder. Reading the T&S can't always tell one where the real excitement is. I find the price action way of reading the tape to be much more insightful. Although I have learned that closing the DOM (price ladder/order book) after I get in a trade is helpful because staying focused on my levels and the corresponding volume trumps all. Once I'm close to potential support or resistance that may mark the end of my ride, I then go back to the order ladder to place my order. Once there, I will then revert back to watching price action to try and decipher if my order to get out of my position at said level is right thing to do or will price momentarily squirt resulting in a much better fill. You gotta keep your greed in check though.

David, its not very complex, but there is alot that goes into how and why I do what I do when I do it. Of my two biggest faults in my trading I will say that conservative (brass-less) exits on the profitable side is one of them. This is mainly because, for example, I hate being in the green 30-40 ticks, just for it to turn into 20 two minutes later and the having to wait 45 minutes to possibly get back to up 40 ticks and possibly 60. I don't like to wait to get paid and I don't like being married to a trade. Get me in and get me the hell out! But as time goes by and the accounts grow I've noticed that the brass thickens. However, when the brass gets too thick you start to become a superstar in your own mind and open the door for catastrophic losses. Essentially I do my best to keep my greed and my head at bay. To make in a week what many comfortable people make in a year is something that needs to truly be taken into perspective and understanding that it can all get flushed down the toilet just as fast if you think you're a tuff guy; its critical to know that the trap door is there.

Its not you vs. the market in this game. Its you vs. you. You click the mouse, the market doesn't click it for you...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DeadCatBouncer for this post:
 
  #263 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received


DeadCatBouncer, you speak as a VSA practitioner ? Is VSA at the core of your trading ? The few rare persons that master it all say the same things, ie, indicators are lagging, Fibonacci levels are nothing more than levels of demand/supply that can be easily deduced from price action, volume at key levels is the way to go as they show where smart money runs their business etc.


When i ask them OK, where do you enter and why, they can easily identify these areas on a previous day by hindsight but when i ask them to do it live i do not see much difference with those who use so called lagging indicators, ie, they win some they lose some. Volume is quite tricky to decipher even more so when you use the standard vertical histogram it can even be considered as a lagging indicator. I get more usefull information from areas that have low volume than high volume quite the opposite of what a VSA user would tell. Most of my winning trades are preceeded with low volume activity and indecisive bars.


Anyway, it would be interesting to show where and why you enter a trade using your volume and level analysis.

Reply With Quote
 
  #264 (permalink)
Just starting out...
New York
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NT ToS
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 26 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 6 given, 36 received


David_R View Post
DCB,

I don't know where you entered your position for the ride down. This is part of the difficulty I have with this. Can you point it out?

Also, I've read a lot about having rules in regards to trading. I was constantly breaking my own rules and ultimately lost a lot of money. I'm trying to turn that around. Do you have rules associated with this method of trading? What do you need to see take place to enter a trade? Can you show me?

I don't know if you are the person or not, but I learned a methodology very similar to what you have discussed. It's a little freaky because he used TOS for pivots, both weekly and daily and he uses many of the terms you have used in your posts. He has literally hundreds of videos on Youtube all winning trades without indicators and speaks constantly about professional money as well as some of the other comments you made. I'm wondering if you know who I'm speaking of? Or, is it you, or have you taken a course of his?

d

I'll get to my entry soon. I'm just trying to see if anyone can find roughly where and why I went short. So I'm going to hang tight on that for a bit.

there's alot I need to see take place to enter a trade. And for me to go heavy, I need to see exactly what I'm looking for in a manner that I say to myself, "There it is, that's precisely what I was waiting for." Its almost like being a gazelle in the African savannah (yes I know, a member of a herd) that senses things are going to change here in a moment, and then all of a sudden you, and only you, get a peek at a cheetah poking its head through a few think blades of grass. Right then and there David you know its time to act, you need to be ready and confirm that your criteria have all been met, and if so you just get in.

Yes I have rules, and yes I break them from time to time and its very dangerous to do so. But you also have to make your rules reasonable. Sometimes people place their stops too tight and get taken out all day long. If you're not willing to take some heat there's no reason to click the mouse in the first place. But you need to manage the heat properly and call a loss a loss, or bad trade just that: a bad trade.

Account management and size management is really outside the scope of this discussion. Its a whole different party talking about that. I might get into it sometime, but now's not the time.

As for me being some youtube trader who always wins, well I wish I were that guy. My style of trading isn't the most popular, if it was the where would smart money go to get their daily profits? Not from me with any relative consistency. But the methodology of trading based on volume and price levels isn't all too uncommon and I see it spoken about on a number of different forums. But I do believe that most people think that its too easy to be real. My account is real, that i do know.

I'm self taught, but without having met a couple of key people in the industry and learning just a few things from them I would have never known what I know now.

I must say though, that I've already said more in these posts than what was explained to me many years ago. I took the ball and ran with it because I wanted it more than almost anything else.

Look at those levels from my chart David, then look at the volume associated to those said levels, watch where price closes, then start to practice determining where price is going to go over the next 10-90 minutes based on that criterion. Then once you able to squeeze out 20-30 ticks at a time with relative ease, then go and do it live with one contract. Take it from there and don't sit around waiting to catch the 80 tick moves. There are usually about 3-4 good setups a day in the most heavily traded commodities.

Reply With Quote
 
  #265 (permalink)
CL Assassin
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: ZenFire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Gary's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,070 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 504 given, 2,230 received


DeadCatBouncer View Post
Anyone want to take a stab at where I took my heavy-lot for the ride down on Friday based on what I've spoken about to this point?

Side Note: David, by all means, let me know when you want me to bounce to another thread with this. My forum etiquette is rusty.

Hey DCB,

I am just taking a educated guess based on what you have written here, and taking a quick look at a chart from Friday that you entered somewhere just under $74 a little after 10 CST. Now, I don't use volume in my trading, but I see a number of factors which would indicate a short opportunity here on multiple charts. I also got a signal close to the same price. And, last, I didn't see anyone else guess on your entry point, so here I am.

Gary

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Gary for this post:
 
  #266 (permalink)
Just starting out...
New York
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NT ToS
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 26 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 6 given, 36 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
DeadCatBouncer, you speak as a VSA practitioner ? Is VSA at the core of your trading ? The few rare persons that master it all say the same things, ie, indicators are lagging, Fibonacci levels are nothing more than levels of demand/supply that can be easily deduced from price action, volume at key levels is the way to go as they show where smart money runs their business etc.


When i ask them OK, where do you enter and why, they can easily identify these areas on a previous day by hindsight but when i ask them to do it live i do not see much difference with those who use so called lagging indicators, ie, they win some they lose some. Volume is quite tricky to decipher even more so when you use the standard vertical histogram it can even be considered as a lagging indicator. I get more usefull information from areas that have low volume than high volume quite the opposite of what a VSA user would tell. Most of my winning trades are preceeded with low volume activity and indecisive bars.


Anyway, it would be interesting to show where and why you enter a trade using your volume and level analysis.



Hi there,

Oh most definitely VSA is at the core of what I do, but there's more to my style than just basic VSA. I analyze volume all day long, however, there's alot of shenanigans in VSA that I filter out. Wycoff, T. Williams, etc. are all smart traders who base everything they did on volume. However, that's always been the number one gripe of those who want to believe in VSA, but just don't because of what you stated: "they can easily identify these areas on a previous day by hindsight but when i ask them to do it live..." Well, let me say that once you've looked at the charts long enough (and only time can do this as you can't spend 40 hours in a week staring at VSA and expect to recognize the correct patterns.) you can definitely make better trades than those who use lagging indicators, and yes it can be done on the fly, live, realtime.

As for those who have heard of tradeguider, please pass, its a joke. just because they have their proprietary list of dozens and dozens of indicators doesn't mean that that program won't obliterate someone's account. F-that thing. <pass>

Anyway, back on topic. I will say that I whole heartedly disagree with your position that you take related to volume also being a lagging indicator. Yet I'm confused because I completely agree with your statement related to low volume. (whats going on here? you turn left, you turn right, you turn left again: I apologizecon, but I'm a tad confused) There's alot to be said about low volume, but not by itself! You need to combine it with price and levels.

Hang tight, I'll get onto where I entered my trade. I just want someone to tell me where they think I entered and why. Its right there in front of everyone and not that hard to see.

Reply With Quote
 
  #267 (permalink)
Just starting out...
New York
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NT ToS
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 26 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 6 given, 36 received


Gary View Post
Hey DCB,

I am just taking a educated guess based on what you have written here, and taking a quick look at a chart from Friday that you entered somewhere just under $74 a little after 10 CST. Now, I don't use volume in my trading, but I see a number of factors which would indicate a short opportunity here on multiple charts. I also got a signal close to the same price. And, last, I didn't see anyone else guess on your entry point, so here I am.

Gary


Hells yes Gary! SPOT ON! That was my first (not very confident) small lot short! Nice stuff. Yes, I was fooled and had a case of premature tradejaculation. I took some heat, but grabbed some cheaper cars not too much later on.

Now Gary (or anyone else) tell me where I scaled in a few more cars ( its obvious, yes, but a little risky).

Then I eventually went heavy and doubled my overall lot size, but where do you think i did it? What was I looking to see? What crietrion needed to be met for me to go balls-out? Please try and tell me where and why when you take a stab at it again.

PS: Thanks again for taking a shot, I'm glad the first person to try was correct, and I'm surprised you picked the bad leg of the trade because IMO that one was even harder to see!

*************Edit: Oh crap: I messed up Gary. 10AM CST was not right. Sorry for the f-up! I entered on the 10:10 bar EST! Shucks! My fault. The call you made was closer to my all-in trade, but not quite.

DCB

Reply With Quote
 
  #268 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Jose, Ca
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,510 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,267 given, 2,371 received

DCB,

Okay, I took the MP charts and looked for correlations with the levels on your chart. It took me a few charts. I also added your chart for a refresh and put where I thought you added on.

David

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-clmp082010.jpg   CL Market Profile Analysis-clmp070610.jpg   CL Market Profile Analysis-clmp0706merge.jpg   CL Market Profile Analysis-dcb-820-chart.jpg  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
  #269 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,214 received

@DeadCatBouncer, I'll guess you went short initially @ 10am and added @ 11:15am. It's what I would have done anyway, lol. I am looking at chart in post #251.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #270 (permalink)
Just starting out...
New York
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NT ToS
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 26 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 6 given, 36 received



David_R View Post
DCB,

Okay, I took the MP charts and looked for correlations with the levels on your chart. It took me a few charts. I also added your chart for a refresh and put where I thought you added on.

David

Hey David, I'm going to be Frank with you, but your MP charts scare the crap out of me. Its like when your a kid and you're in your dimly lit bedroom and you hear weird noises coming from your closet and get up to go and open the closet door. That point where the door is just slightly cracked and you peer around to take a look with your flashlight waiting for something to jump on your face and kill ya. Yeah, well that's kinda how I feel looking at those MP charts!

HOWEVER, even though you were wrong about where I added a couple of contracts, you weren't far off from either of my scale-ins. I'll tell you why where you suggested that I added some contracts was not the best spot. But, I will say that if you can articulate to me why you chose that level that we may be onto something because it would have been nice to have added my heavy scale-in where you suggested that I may have.

I will say that one thing that isn't smart with going short in that neighborhood is doing so above the S1. Although I scaled in higher than that earlier, but that was in an effort to break even.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > CL Market Profile Analysis

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market analysis with SQL shodson Platforms and Indicators 8 March 28th, 2015 12:45 AM
Day Time TJ for CL starting 2/22 with pre mkt & post-mortem analysis spartacus Trading Journals 53 April 28th, 2011 01:05 AM
market profile? jrs659 Traders Hideout 6 September 24th, 2010 09:45 PM
CL rollover adjustment & volume profile charts neko333 Commodities Futures Trading 19 September 13th, 2010 04:02 PM
ES/YM Market Profile Analysis David_R Emini Index Futures Trading 37 August 24th, 2010 05:50 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:36 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-10 in 0.19 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.221.73.186