The first file is showing cycle studies. I think Crude completed an eight day cycle last Wednesday in which the low of the cycle was higher than the prior cycle low and it also made a new high compared to the prior cycle.
The action in the last three days has been bullish. When forming the low on Wednesday it left behind a selling tail closing unchanged. The range extension in the last hour on Friday is still suspect since it was the last day of the month. It finished right at the POCs of the bracket at the top of the last cycle. I think it will attract more buyers if it can build value above 80.
The first I view as selling. The second most likely selling but less sure about that one. The negative divergences in better momentum tell me more trades are at the bid and that's a characteristic of selling.
The following user says Thank You to cunparis for this post:
As somewhat anticipated, CL broke out strongly from the consolidation as its daily cycle matures. We have taken out the highs of the previous two cycles which suggests that this is going to be a right translated cycle (i.e. the high will be reached further into the cycle).
Looking back at the plunge in April-May, there is a big red candle which has left a gap in the volume profile between 85 and 83. There is some congestion between 81 and 83. I think in the current cycle we will end up testing the top of the congestion and if risk appetite maintains the top of the volume gap under 85.
Or we might see an extended cycle or a combination of two cycles; the first part will stagnate near 83s as we get close to the NFPs, pull back to fill up the gap left behind in the low 80s and then attempt an assault at the 85 level. Crude and equities, often hit cycle lows on NFP Fridays, which would be consistent with the cycle durations in the recent past (8-9 days from low to low).
Respectfully, it seems like many people here are looking far too deep into this analysis. This MP stuff is craziness IMHO. The powers that ultimately control market price don't look at all that. They don't need to, rather, their leverage alone determines where prices will go. If you can determine (and you can) where the heavy weight professionals accumulate and distribute their supply you can ride the same self fulfilling waves that they do. Sure they cloak their intentions in the eye of the retail trader but that's the point. Try getting a 2k lot on the CL filled inside a 30 tick range, not the easiest thing in the world to do, therefore, they spread it out over a relatively wide range. And in order to do that, within their fill target range, they need to get people on the other side to be more than willing to give up those cars. So how do you see it? Well its right in front of all of us, including the smart money, and it has nothing to do with these various lagging shenanigan indicators. Current and past daily and weekly pivots + volume + where price closes based on those levels and the volume attributable to said price = seeing what the professionals are doing (accumulating supply from the under-leveraged/weak holder or distributing their supply to those same gooses who make them ridiculous amounts of money every day).
Can anyone here tell me using these various indicators you folks use why, with precision, the CLV0 just magically stopped right at 73.44 on the 11:55am EST bar yesterday (8/20), and why price closed, more importantly, on that same bar at 73.53? Well its the same reason that price stopped at 73.53 about five and a half hours prior when on the 6:25am EST bar price wouldn't drop below 73.53 on massive euro-session volume. Just look to the left a few days prior and more closely look at the weekly pivots for 8/18. What do you see for 73.53? Hmmm. Now the question that begs to be answered is how do you know where they will stop price again? Well, you don't know, hell they don't even know yet, but volume and where price resides related to that next unknown level will tell us all. From there, you wait for confirmation of whether that level will be respected and then take your position (volume and price related to volume at said levels confirms that levels strength).
Sure, smart money battles with one another every day, but in the end the stronger one's who have more pull (that day) determine when price stops going up or down for the session. They don't just arbitrarily buy and sell from their massive accounts related to lagging indicators, oscillators, MP, crossovers and the such. They take positions based on specific prior and current levels, and where they feel they can get their massive lots filled. This is done in the most clandestine manner possible in an effort to get their fills as reasonably fast as possible and they get it primarily from the retail side. Sure they take massive heat sometimes to get their fills, but there's no other way for them to do it when we're talking about that type of size. There's no direct stairway to heaven in trading, even when you control the market, there's always heat that must be taken in order to bank coin. The temporary heat that these guys feel in order to properly take position are amounts that eclipse what most well funded retail traders use as total intraday margin leverage. Being down $500k for a short time on a 2k buy lot is not a ridiculous amount of heat ($20,000/tick LOL). And if other powers that be start to lay on heavy pressure away from their position that's when they'll pull out another 4-5k lot and the toughest kid on the block that day is determined (PS: that's why you have to wait for the bar to be painted). You can clearly see their intentions if you look closely, but one certainly doesn't need this gamut of lagging indicators to determine intraday price action.