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CL Market Profile Analysis
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CL Market Profile Analysis

  #11 (permalink)
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Here is the Market profile for 3/8/10.

Bias is still up. Price did go higher in the overnight and there is still a portion of the gap from Thusdays close to Fridays open. We came down to just above the 61.8 retracement as mentioned on Friday. This is not a Fib thread, but I added it to see if there is confluence with other areas of support.

I also posted a 60 minute chart that gives a representation of a balance area on a candlestick chart.

David

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CL Market Profile Analysis-030810-cl-mp.jpeg   CL Market Profile Analysis-030810-cl-mp-60.jpeg  
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  #12 (permalink)
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Here is the MP chart for today 3/9. In addition to the regular trading hours chart I've included a chart with two overlays, or merges of days that overlap.

As side note, if you look at the 60 minute, we came down to the extreme low end of the balance area. In Auction Market Theory terms this is considered unfair value or low prices. If taking a trade in this area has too much risk exposure, going down to a lower time frame and looking for a shift in trend would make a nice entry. I saw this developing this morning, but did not have the cahones to pull the trigger.

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-30910-rth-mp.jpeg   CL Market Profile Analysis-30910-rth-mp-overlay.jpeg   CL Market Profile Analysis-030810-cl-mp-60.jpeg  
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  #13 (permalink)
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Market Profile for CL 3/10/10:

Not sure how long I will continue to post to this thread. There does not seem to be that much interest. If this is something you really want to continue to see let me know.

For today just the Daily Reg Trading hours profile. Up move continues inspired by the inventory report. The last 4 days have overlapping value areas although todays was a larger than the others as was the range. Price opened and closed with in value. I think the Bias needs to remain Sideways to up unless proven otherwise.

There are a bunch of horizontal lines on the chart. I picked out some areas of support and resistance based off of the overlay profiles as well as the individual profiles and put them on the chart.

David

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CL Market Profile Analysis-031010-cl-mp.jpeg  
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  #14 (permalink)
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David,

Just learning to use MP. Definitely appreciate the analysis on CL which you don't really see anywhere. What's your opinion on the MP indicator on your charts... would you recommend buying that one over the ones available for free here or on the NT forums? Also, would you mind providing the templates you have set up?

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  #15 (permalink)
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CDesai13 View Post
David,

Just learning to use MP. Definitely appreciate the analysis on CL which you don't really see anywhere. What's your opinion on the MP indicator on your charts... would you recommend buying that one over the ones available for free here or on the NT forums? Also, would you mind providing the templates you have set up?


CD,

I will continue to do the postings for awhile. It helps me as well.

I like the MP indicator that i have. It is from Final| Financial Algorithms and I think is $250. I'm not sure about all the free ones. I've seen the one on this forum, imarketprofile65, or something like that. I don't know much about it, but I think it does have limitations. It really depends on what you want to do with MP and how much flexibility you need and want. For example, I don't think the one on this forum has the lettered TPO's as the volume. You may want to be able to split the TPO's. Also merging profiles may be important. Not sure about the one on the forum for that.

My opinion is either use the Fin-alg version or use Market Delta with the profile or Investor R/T with the MP.

I was told and have read the Mind over Markets by Dalton is the best book for MP. Of course its the one I have not read, so I've ordered it, so if yo haven't read it it may be worth it.

D

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  #16 (permalink)
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Market Profile for CL 3/11/2010:

Not to much has changed from yesterday. Support and resistance zones remain although based on today's profile there is a high volume area that could act as S or R depending on where price opens tomorrow. Narrow range today and still with in value and in the horizontal development. Eventually when we come out of the horizontal we will go vertical.

Included in the pic is a trade I took today based on the profile, but in reality Market Profile is not a trading method, but tool. I believe the methodology that coincides with MP is Auction Market Theory. Prices drop to find buyers and rise to find sellers and then balance for awhile when buyers and sellers are in agreement, or balance and then when the demand exceeds the supply prices rise and when the supply exceeds the demand prices fall. The trade is based on this theory.

I watched a recorded webinar on supply and demand last nigh and in that webinar the presentor said that this is how the floor traders and true professionals trade and the reason the retail trader and or the public do not is because it is counter intuitive, emotionally difficult and indicators such as moving averages etc. would not be indicating a buy or sell. With Auction Market trading it can be uncomfortable because on the chart that one is using to enter it can and most likely appear as a counter trend trade, but in terms of the longer time frame the trade is probably with that trend. Hopefully this is where the Bias from the MP analysis comes in.

Here is the webinar I watched. This is from another Journal in the elite section. It is in SteveM journal and a member posted this link because he was having difficulty.
http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2007/11/supply-and-dema.html

Sorry, I'm going on so long.

David

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-031110mp-trade.jpeg  

Last edited by David_R; March 11th, 2010 at 04:48 PM. Reason: added link
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  #17 (permalink)
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David,

What chart time do you use to create your profiles? The Pit Session is only 10am to 2:30pm but I've been using 8am to 2:30pm since there is relatively high volume as early as 8. Have you found a session time that you like for CL?

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  #18 (permalink)
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Isn't the pit 8-2:30 central? I keep hearing different things. I thought I looked it up. If its 8-2:30 central then I have my time frame set to 6am-12:30pm because I'm on the west coast. If I have it wrong let me know. I check my regular trading hours MP chart and its set to 6-12:30 pm PST. It seems to work ok.

you are right about volume at around 8 eastern. I should change the MP and see what that does.
D

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Looks like you were right on the 8-2:30 CST... I don't know where I heard 9CST multiple times but I should have checked this out earlier.

Any thoughts on the earlier start time for your MP chart? I don't think I know enough yet to determine if its better/worse/indifferent. I think the obvious concern is that all of the key points (VA's, POCs, High, Low, gaps, etc) could be different.

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  #20 (permalink)
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CDesai13 View Post
Looks like you were right on the 8-2:30 CST... I don't know where I heard 9CST multiple times but I should have checked this out earlier.

Any thoughts on the earlier start time for your MP chart? I don't think I know enough yet to determine if its better/worse/indifferent. I think the obvious concern is that all of the key points (VA's, POCs, High, Low, gaps, etc) could be different.

I dont think the earlier time is a big deal. I think that since the volume can be significant enough that it should be included. I've changed my profile to include it.

D

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