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CL Market Profile Analysis
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CL Market Profile Analysis

  #141 (permalink)
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Market Profile chart for CL up to and including 5/7. I also include a chart with some past merges that show value was declining on a higher time frame. In other words, the two merges are both about 2 weeks in length, but the value area was falling from one two week period to the other. Just an interesting observation at this point in time. There is also a 60 minute bar chart that shows where the merges would be as well as possible support areas for CL.

David

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-cl-merge-history-50710.jpg   CL Market Profile Analysis-cl050710-merg-current.jpg   CL Market Profile Analysis-cl-0507-60-min.jpg  
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  #142 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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David_R View Post
C,

What would be a swing set up vs. a daytrade setup? Just on a higher timeframe?

Feel free to bounce off any ideas. I think the things I mentioned above about Crude apply to ES as well. I find it difficult to gauge a swing trade because one needs to be sure the trend is with them. Even a 20 point move in the ES can be erased, so what constitutes a swing? I don't know.

For my method, swing trades are very similar to day trades just, as you say, on a higher timeframe.

As it turns out my idea for a short CL trade would have worked perfectly. I don't swing trade crude but it was a nice opportunity.

Trading with the "trend" is difficult cause I don't really believe in trend. The market is fractal and there are trends & trading ranges at all timeframes, often in opposite directions. So the trick is to find out in what timeframe is the market cycling, verify professional activity is confirming the cycles, and then trade that timeframe.

For example using ES, we can have on the monthly we can have trend down, on the weekly have trend up, on the daily have trend up, on hourly have trend down.

This is why I monitor a market on several timeframes and really it's why I trade only ES because it's time-consuming to trade several.

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  #143 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
For my method, swing trades are very similar to day trades just, as you say, on a higher timeframe.

As it turns out my idea for a short CL trade would have worked perfectly. I don't swing trade crude but it was a nice opportunity.

Trading with the "trend" is difficult cause I don't really believe in trend. The market is fractal and there are trends & trading ranges at all timeframes, often in opposite directions. So the trick is to find out in what timeframe is the market cycling, verify professional activity is confirming the cycles, and then trade that timeframe.

For example using ES, we can have on the monthly we can have trend down, on the weekly have trend up, on the daily have trend up, on hourly have trend down.

This is why I monitor a market on several timeframes and really it's why I trade only ES because it's time-consuming to trade several.

Yes, you certainly had it right on CL. You had the call, but there may have been a day or two more to the upside. I'm not sure how one would handle a swing on CL if you had to sit through a couple bucks of heat. I guess if one has deep pockets it wouldn't matter. I think that is where turning a day trade short into a swing would be a good idea.

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  #144 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
Yes, you certainly had it right on CL. You had the call, but there may have been a day or two more to the upside. I'm not sure how one would handle a swing on CL if you had to sit through a couple bucks of heat. I guess if one has deep pockets it wouldn't matter. I think that is where turning a day trade short into a swing would be a good idea.

That's my problem, I don't want to take a few days of heat with CL. That could be $2000-$5000. Trading USO is one choice. QM is another. but for me it's more about practicing and testing my understanding of the market.

I've also learned that spotting a good opportunity and putting money on the line to capitalize on it are two different things. I often "know" ES is going to do something but always manage to mess up the trade by being early or getting out breakeven before the big move, etc. Very difficult. But practice makes perfect.

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  #145 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
That's my problem, I don't want to take a few days of heat with CL. That could be $2000-$5000. Trading USO is one choice. QM is another. but for me it's more about practicing and testing my understanding of the market.

I've also learned that spotting a good opportunity and putting money on the line to capitalize on it are two different things. I often "know" ES is going to do something but always manage to mess up the trade by being early or getting out breakeven before the big move, etc. Very difficult. But practice makes perfect.


C,

Another thought is if you are confident in your "knowing" that ES is going to do something you could try an option play of some kind. Either options on futures or as you said USO for CL, you could do options on the SPY for ES. That would have worked out nicely as well.

D

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  #146 (permalink)
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Here is a 12 range bar chart chart of CL with AMT/Market Profile type trades. Yes, difficult in real time, but useful.

D

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl050810-mp.jpg  
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  #147 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
Here is a 12 range bar chart chart of CL with AMT/Market Profile type trades. Yes, difficult in real time, but useful.

D

David are those lines marking balance areas and VA's an indicator or u manually draw it after analyzing the chart?

GT
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  #148 (permalink)
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gtichauer View Post
David are those lines marking balance areas and VA's an indicator or u manually draw it after analyzing the chart?


The markings are placed by me after the fact. I do feel that is the way the market works. It is in balance aka consolidation and then it moves to imbalance aka vertical move and then back again. I also find it interesting that the areas of balance or consolidation tend to be the areas where supply and demand are. As always, trading it in real time is the tough part.

David

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  #149 (permalink)
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For swing trades I think your better off with USO unless you have a very large account, because even QM is still quite large to swing multi-day.

Mike

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  #150 (permalink)
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Here is a MP chart for CL. This is as of Wednesday the 12th. In a bit of a range the last 4 days after quite a sell off. Some nearby S/R marked on the chart.

David

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