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CL Market Profile Analysis
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CL Market Profile Analysis

  #121 (permalink)
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Chart for CL 4/15/10

CL trading lower in the overnight. If gap open lower could be opportunity for a short. S/R on chart.

D

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl41510.jpg  
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  #122 (permalink)
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Some big moves in CL to the downside leaving gaps in reg. trading hours. Current MP chart with S/R

D

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl041910.jpg  
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  #123 (permalink)
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Here is a MP chart on CL for 4/21/10. I've indicated some areas that can be support or resistance depending on the open of regular trading hours. A lot depends on the open and whether or not price opens within the value area of the prior day. If it opens above it could be bullish. If it opens bellow it could be bearish. Depending on the open look to see how price behaves at the potential S/R area along with volume. I've included a 5 minute candle chart with two potential trades for today (4/21) based on the S/R per the market profile. These are just examples of how you can use the S/R to trade against. If you like to use an indicator it could be of value if you see a divergence or an overbought or oversold condition as well.

David

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl_4210.png  
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  #124 (permalink)
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Hi David

Your CL Makret Profile Analysis thread is a GIANT LIFT to my MP learning! Thank you.

I know you're not trading it. Yet the efforts you spent in educating us are Awesome!!

Beth

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  #125 (permalink)
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I remember this one.. my price volume didnt had a broad range and I gave up trying to figure out how to apply it to the succeeding time frame...

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  #126 (permalink)
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Hello all,

Here is a MP chart for 4/26. I indicate S/R heading into tomorrow 4/27. I hope its of use.

I also attached another chart showing the same day only one profile is split out at "C" period. I do this to show how you can use the profile intra-day. Once you start to see some indication of what may be taking place it may be useful to split out the profile. In the example you can see that there is a selling tail In A period as well as B period. The selling tail is indicated by single print TPO's (Time Price Opportunities) . In other words, no TPO to the right. In this example the trade would be if price comes back to test the VAL of the A and B period profile or the POC of the A and B period profile, which it did. That would be a good short. Also, if you look closely you can see E and F periods also are selling tails in their respective periods. I hope it helps.

David

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl-06-10.jpg   CL Market Profile Analysis-cl_42610_split.png  
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  #127 (permalink)
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Here is a sim trade I took based on support defined yesterday.

I will admit that a long here is counter trend based on the days trend. With market profile and the auction process we are looking to trade the extremes of value. With a broader view you can see that CL has once again been in a bit of a range, albeit a fairly large range. I think that is one of the great things about CL. A $2 range bound market can present quite a bit of opportunity. On the chart I comment about the 80% rule about price reaching the other side of the value area. I may or may not have the rule 100% correct, but in hind sight and if trading real money, I would never let a .50 profit in CL stop out at B/E.

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-cl_427_sim_trade.png   CL Market Profile Analysis-cl_427_sim_trade_2.png  

Last edited by David_R; April 27th, 2010 at 10:00 PM. Reason: added countertrend comment
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  #128 (permalink)
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Here is the MP chart for today, 4/27. I continued with the theme of splitting the profile from yesterday where we had selling tails. With a weak open outside of value the bias can be to the short side. If price comes back to an area of resistance such as the POC or VAH or VAL and you have indications of rejection it is a good short location. The 25th and 26th had overlapping value or balance, so a vertical move would take place at some point in time. merging the 25th and 26th together is another option as well as splitting out the the profile. Fiki on the forum does a lot of splitting where he sees areas of balance.

In addition to the profile chart I show a candle chart and volume which shows indications that short selling is taking place at the high. The increasing volume bar with a close of the bar near the low is a good indication of that. The next bar is on lighter volume, but makes a new high. I feel this is purely done to trap people. Ultimately there is a 1,2,3 pattern and a nice move down. If you look at the up bars following the first down bar (red) that form the 1,2.3 pattern you can see that the volume on the up bars drops off even more.

David

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  #129 (permalink)
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Thanks David for a great post

I see NICE trades here!!!

WTG!!!

Keep on sowing your seed, for you never know which will grow -- perhaps it all will.

-- Albert Einstein
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  #130 (permalink)
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Here is a MP chart for 4/28. I'm leaning towards the long side in terms of the analysis, but with CL there can always be opportunity in either direction. Of course we never know what will happen. I hope this is of use.

David

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