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CL Market Profile Analysis
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CL Market Profile Analysis

  #111 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Jose, Ca
 
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CL MP update. See chart.

D

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl-05-10-4_8_2010-5-min-.jpg  
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  #112 (permalink)
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I think Dalton as this as a special situation in his Mind over Markets book.

The 80% rule strategy put together by Larry Levin of Secrets of Traders can be found here
in the attachment over at the NT forums (NinjaTrader Support Forum) For whatever reason I couldn't use the search in NT forums, but a Google search brought it up.

BTW, I don't trade this strategy/method. Also, my understanding is that this is more likely to work on a probe into a normal distribution (D type profile with a volume bulge at the center)

Hope this is of some help.

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  #113 (permalink)
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fiki View Post
fikis profile report:

good examples on openings, trenddays and the 80% rule...

the 1171 was actually a good spot for long. 1170.75 was the upper VA from the last time market was down here. market first drove through the fist zone 74.75-72.75 without reaction so odds were good for rejection at the next levels. trading is a lot about confidence and i was a bit shellchocked from yesterdays massacre so i never "manned up" enough to pull the trigger down there...

david, hope u dont mind me posting these ES profile charts here. maybe i should put them in a own market profile thread?

Fiki,

You say that price went through the first zone without reaction so odd were good for rejection at the next levels. Do you mean that it drove through the first levels on the way down or back on the way up?

You say you didn't man up to pull the trigger down at the low. did you later in the day and if so, where?

After you get range extension from the IB do you only take trades in the direction of the RE?

David

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  #114 (permalink)
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First the 80% rule. I´m not sure who came up with it but Dalton writes about it in the Profile Reports which are some old newsletters/articles from the 80s. But I think that the MD pdf that David posted a link to explains it better since Dalton only mentions it a leaves a lot of questions unanswered. I mostly put that in because I wanted a reaction and some MP discussion. Everybody gets interested in a 80% winrate strategy.

I don´t have the knowledge to back test this idea and its 20-25 years old and during this time the market has changed. So I don’t know how valid it is. If you google it some say it´s great others that it doesn´t work. It all comes down to that MP is just a way of organizing the AMT and not a system. So I wouldn´t trade it just because of the rule. But it has a lot of sense to it so I use it. For instance yday: Market rejected the lows and busted all the way up to the last balance area. When it hits this area one of 3 things will happened: rejection at the edge/poc, acceptance or it will just pass through not even pausing. Yday it stopped there. G closed inside and H opened inside but then H dropped outside. Then H went inside and I opened inside but also went outside. Then in again and J opens inside and stays there. We have a 80% rule setup. What does this mean? The 4 periods inside shows acceptance and if the old value is accepted then it logical that it will go up and test the upper value.

Concerning a clear setup yday. I was not that confident. But then again i´m by no means an expert. One of the better tools I have for judging a move like yday and the day before is volume. Market moves from balance to balance. And one way of gauging the quality if the auction is how much volume it attracts. And if you look at the day before, the volume dropped off with the lower prices. So I hade a hunch it would be an up day. But not that convinced I would put money on it if I didn’t se a reason to buy.

David. I isolate the distribution and put an upper/lower VA and poc on them. This is Step 3 in the development. Yday I just ran through the balance 75-72 with no reaction so something could be expected on the next stop 69-71. Either a bounce or at least some acceptance giving you a chance of getting out if there was no real bounce. The risk was that when it got back up in that balance which was just passed there could be a selling again.

Yday I went long after the open-cross. When it goes that far down and then revisits the open its significant. As of late I have developed a strategy for the openings, so I was waiting for that setup. I also got a orderflow setup there, a delta flush. I exited on 81.5 but got the same orderflow setup after the 80% rule was in place so I reentered for a couple of ticks higher for a small scalp. Concerning the RE, sometimes I fade it sometimes I go with. Lately I go with. Yday it was a combo of the openings strategy/go-with RE.

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  #115 (permalink)
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Market Profile for CL going into Sun/Mon trading. It looks like to me CL would like to go a little lower until continuing the upward move. I try real hard not to make too many predictions about market direction because I think it can affect your thinking when trading. I know it has mine in the past. I may the comment about additional downside because of the NPOC just below and it matches up well with current similar days ranges. That doesn't mean it will happen, it's just something I'm pointing out. Regardless, the values area extremes and high volume nodes act as good support and resistance and are generally the best areas to initiate a trade.

In addition to the market profile chart i've also attached a link to a youtube video by the teen AMT trader. In this this video he goes over how the market moves from balance to imbalance. Put aside the fact he is a teen and listen to the content.
YouTube - julian062596's Channel


David

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl41109.jpg  
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  #116 (permalink)
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Here is an AMT trade setup that took place today. This is like the kid shows in the video.

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CL Market Profile Analysis-041210_cl_test.jpg  
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  #117 (permalink)
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David, thanks for that earlier charts of CL.

In hindsight, the test of the prior days IBL & LVN and the subsequent failure to hold above the prior day settlement price & HVN is a great short setup.

May I ask what times have you used for the RTH market profile chart?

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  #118 (permalink)
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Tradert View Post
David, thanks for that earlier charts of CL.

In hindsight, the test of the prior days IBL & LVN and the subsequent failure to hold above the prior day settlement price & HVN is a great short setup.

May I ask what times have you used for the RTH market profile chart?

I have the market profile set to 6:00 am - 12:30 pm pacific time. I believe those are the pit hours.

David

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  #119 (permalink)
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Updated CL Market Profile chart.

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CL Market Profile Analysis-cl-041310.jpg  
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  #120 (permalink)
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This is a MP chart for Wednesday 4/14/10. I also include a MD footprint chart as well as a volume chart. AMT does not use indicators as far as I know, but i wanted to include one just as a "crutch" if you will.

The concept of AMT and trading the concept is to buy unfair lows and sell unfair highs. Additionally, the market will auction down to find buyer and up to find sellers. The last few days CL has been dropping, but depending on what timeframe you look at you could say CL is still in an uptrend. If you examine the profile from yesterday there are you see that price was fairly strongly rejected at the 82.50 area. I split the profile for yesterday to make that clearer. Starting In E period price continually took out the high if the preceding period without taking out the low. This happened all the way to J when K took out the high of J as well as the low of J. K matched lows with I and then rallied where L balanced and M took out the high of L. If you break out the profile further at each period such as E and F and G you would see that each of those periods is creating a buying tail. With this in conjunction with the bullish gap open the bias based on this alone could be long assuming the trade sets up.

I just about when long at 84.30 area, but am not trading CL, but felt the trade was there. I think it was better to follow my rules. My main reason for posting this is that I feel that this was an excellent trade opportunity with .15-.20 of risk and the potential of 3:1 or more. The value area high of the large balance area (merge) was reached in one candle after the crude report came out, so the additional potential for at least the average daily range was there. I find it interesting that the crude report supported the trade.

David

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-cl041410.jpg   CL Market Profile Analysis-cl041410-2.jpg  

Last edited by David_R; April 14th, 2010 at 05:58 PM. Reason: Added second pic, bar chart to support trade
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