david. i try to be early and anticipate the RE and enter before it happends. yday i waited until it broke because of the open-auction and my loss when i first tried to short it. and i´m aware of the whole 2-tick-break beeing a faild action theory but u have to put it in perspective. if u do a "market profile" of the last years rht range you get that 12p is the norm (poc). yday was 9.75p and it still felt like a trendday. so when volatility is this low than 2-3 ticks on the first try doesnt seem like a fail acution. the ib was only 15 ticks.
other times i try to guess the RE and maybe even take som profits after it happends. when trying to guess wich side it will brake i look at: a. is the trend up or down? (i look at the VA). b. where does it open? c. how does it open? what areas of support or resistance are there? d. how does the cum delta look like?
after that i just guess. sometimes wrong, sometimes right.
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Thanks for the chart. That helps a lot, but I'm sure its difficult in real time to make these determinations and act upon them. At least i know that it is for me. The nuances of how the market operates and how the profile displays that is interesting.
David. yes its hard. Otherwise everybody would be making money. Yesterday was clearcut from a market profile perspective. But the orderflow was very confusing at times. One example is a setup i have based on orderflow alone. It was almost a "go". It only needed 1 tick more to trigger it on a 1.25 rangebar chart. The delta was -13.000ish !!! So i try to front the close by selling it. But the bar reverses and closes up on -9000ish delta and continues to rally to the IB high. So i had to take a stop. Some days orderflow is messed up. I dont track the TICK so much but usually when it is up a bit and delta is down on ES its smaller companies performing well and keeping SP500 up.
But like i wrote. If you played just using market profile, market logic and good trade management it was a good day. But for me it was a horrible day. I violeted my plan, I overtraded, my winrate was at 30% and I had my first limit down day in 2010. The only good thing about yday was that i respected my limit down. So what happend? Well, fiki happend. It opend and instead of stepping a side i wanted to make lots of cash and started taking positions. My dark passanger took over. With the stops came frustration and more trades and more stops. My judgment was clouded and i exiprienced tunnel vision, not seeing past my red P/L.
You write that its hard to make realime descisions on them but it takes time to master any skill. And with the stress of having a position in a market you sometimes loose your cool the way i did yday. I used to be very good in a contact sport a couple years ago untill i hurt my back and had to quit. I remember my first fight. I was know to be a very technical. But when i stepped in to the ring i forgot all about that. My instincts took over and when i watched a videotape of it i just held the guy all red in my face while the coach was screeming "BREADTH"... I takes time to learn how to relax in stress. It takes expirence to gain confidence.
All you can do is have your limits in place and respect those when they get hit. And then after you do a bad day you try to do someting good out of it like analysing your trades and what happend. i try to view "crazy" days like great days. days i really learn something about myself...
Here is how the day COULD have been
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Hi Guys, interesting thread that you've got going here.
Fiki, I was extactly in the same boat yesterday getting chopped up early in the day. The price action & order flow, especially the big lots were hard to read. I did hit my daily loss limit, however, the post lunch sessions break was a tick in all boxes so I overrided my rules (not too happy abt it) & took a 1/2 unit short which played out well.
Now having a closer look at the way how things played out yesterday. I'm wondering whether the open location 1183.25 (a high volume node of prior day) a clue for the following choppy action? How do you see an open at a HVN?
tradert, my view is the same as yours. that is, in a hvn the market it prone to chopp. bacause of this i usually avoid taking a position there since it is "fair value". my problem yday was my mind. i have hade a multiple of days where it played out just as i had planed. so i started to feel bulletproof and getting sloppy. and mr market was fast in correcting my misstake
good examples on openings, trenddays and the 80% rule...
the 1171 was actually a good spot for long. 1170.75 was the upper VA from the last time market was down here. market first drove through the fist zone 74.75-72.75 without reaction so odds were good for rejection at the next levels. trading is a lot about confidence and i was a bit shellchocked from yesterdays massacre so i never "manned up" enough to pull the trigger down there...
david, hope u dont mind me posting these ES profile charts here. maybe i should put them in a own market profile thread?
about yesterday , as you guys already know , i like to trade the YM and for me it was so clear whats going on ...
so what i saw is that previous day we could not break the previous days high so my bias change to shorts , now according to my book , i am always shorting previous days POC if my bias is short
and more then that if you read the order flow pre market you will look for shorts
hope this helps
Keep on sowing your seed, for you never know which will grow -- perhaps it all will.