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when you take a market profile trade like you did on monday, do you have a first target that is a scalp such as 4 or 6 tics and then shoot for the larger target, or is the target always based on structure?
I took a long in the YM today of the POC from Thursday and there wasn't any recent market structure resistance. I usually scale out +10, +15-20 and open. Now that I think about it the overnight session made a new high. Should I use overnight data to determine a target?
David
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Oil continues to march higher. One chart is a weekly that shows a channel that oil has been in for a fair amount of time. It may or may not hit the top of that channel. The other is a daily profile chart with some key support areas.
David: It depends. Sometimes market profile is the setup and sometimes its a part of a setup. When i just trade of the market profile like yesterday I base the target on structure, like yday: Most days will have a range exentsion. Only 1-2% of the most recent days (1y) will be contained in the IB. So u "know" there will be movement out of the IB. U just dont know on wich side. (Just like the previos high/low). But sometimes i get a indication wich side it will be. Yday, it starts to go down and i get a short setup so I go short 76.25. I se 2 problem areas: single prints from 75.75 wich corespond to that old VAH and the POC at 74.25. I belive the trend is up so i look to cover the short early. But i dont get filled at POC since it turns at 74.50. After it makes a 5 tick reversal (the VB is gravestone doji so there is some confirmation in orderflow but not much) I revers position to long. I now belive this is a open-test-drive. when it crosses the open it confirms this. I put the SL under open and i wait for the first range extension.(after first 60 min i put alert). After the range exention i get a shooting star on 5 tick chart. Since i dont have a limit (not knowing how far RE will go) i dont sell yet. IB high is 81.75 so if it goes below i will think of it as a failed auction so i move my stop to 81.50. i bounces of 81.75 and goes back up. but there is bad trade fasilitation for longs. it starts to build volume/acceptence 81.75-83.75 so i cover vpoc 83..
other times when market profile just is part of the setup then the real setup is in the system i use. then i cover 1 unit always after 2p. this is because i backtest my system and this has good winrate and good netto win. Like the short i did. it was a part of system setup. but 4-6 tick is to little target for me. if i belive this is the least movement i dont take it. i look to at least 8 ticks.
david: forgot about your question "should I use overnight data to determine a target?"
i use the overnight data. i think that data is valuable. i used to just look at daily rht but i find more information in looking at the 24h split into normal distributions.
dr steenbarger had a good piece on targets a while ago:
"The odds of exceeding highs or lows are even higher when we frame overnight highs and lows as initial targets for futures contracts. Well over 90% of days take out either their overnight high or low, so when we open within the overnight range, a worthwhile initial trade is to play for one of those levels once we see evidence of a directional bias to the day's trade."
days trade based on mp (and some basic DOM reading on entry). it not my intention making this my diary but the open-auction opening and narrow range was right out of the market profile handbook
I encourage you to start a journal so it *is* your intention I enjoy reading your posts and would like to see it in journal format so I can learn more about your method, specifically psychology aspects, trade/risk/money management, daily goals/limits, etc.
I'm confused on your chart. You say that "P" broke the IB, but isn't the Blue vertical line the IB? "P" is contained with in the Blue vertical line. Is this a split profile and is the IB actually further back in time?
I used your suggestion on the DOM today. I saw a lot of resting orders at resistance as indication for my short. YM doesn't seem to have the adding and pulling of orders as much as ES.
thanx mike. iīve thought about it but i not sure i would keep it up so thats why i never started one.
btw. i read your post in cunparis thread about a lot of change but and little consistency and it was like u were writing to me. last year i used a very simple approach with the profile and was successfull with that. then end of year i started to "improve" it by adding new indicators and new ideas. kind of lost focus and had some bad months getting nowhere just making my broker fat of commissions. not sure if it was a information overload or if all the change got me to lose confidence in the setups. so i want to thank u for your post. a good reality check for me at least.
david. sorry for the confusion. i split the profiles but when i talk about the opening i talke about the rht open. m period is the rht first 30 min of trading. p period is the 3rd but since it breaks the balance i start a new one. i actually split ydays rht into 3 distributions.still i always keep track of what is happening during the day. like the width of the IB and the range extensions because i use them in trading.
not sure about YM and the orderbook there but my first "encunter" with orderflow was an old webinar with a trader named jack broz and he traded the YM and the bonds. it is probobly more pros and algos in the ES but still i find it hard to belive YM is spared. itīs just not easy spotting these games all the time. if someone puts a fake big lot in the book to lure the other players and then pulls is before it gets hit he is probably pretty advanced and really good at this game. and his intentions are not that u notice whats going on...
