Time to Short Crude Oil? - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Time to Short Crude Oil?
Updated: Views / Replies:4,290 / 38
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:12

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 12  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Time to Short Crude Oil?

  #31 (permalink)
Elite Member
Mandeville, LA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader, Tradestation
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, ES
 
buddy858's Avatar
 
Posts: 101 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 495 given, 146 received

This is what the trade should have looked like, exiting up here around 104.60 or so, had I have focused on the higher time frames and trailed my stop.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I just realized I pretty much hijacked this thread. Sorry Mike. Still kinda new to posting. It won't happen again.

Daniel

Reply With Quote
 
  #32 (permalink)
Elite Member
Mandeville, LA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader, Tradestation
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, ES
 
buddy858's Avatar
 
Posts: 101 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 495 given, 146 received

Last post in here, I promise

I just wanted you to see the main chart showing the major confluence zone. I should have posted this along with the 4 hour chart...Couldn't ask for a more perfect spot for a pivot...

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
 
  #33 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received



josh View Post
I would wait for more unfair prices at the very least at 111-115, and likely 120, and then I'd need to see some multi-day activity that convinced me that it was failing. As of this moment, it looks to be succeeding rather well in its breakout, so for me the price is not right, the activity is not right, and the risk/payoff is just too low. Where would the target be on such a trade? First I would wait for 115 or higher to trade, have about a $5 stop, and target where else but low 90s, the point of price control and breakout point. A secondary target would be the other end of balance between 65 and 70.

We now stand here, after the Syria threat has pushed this market $8 higher in the last 2 days:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


We are sitting around $112 tonight at this moment. The sweet spot for a short is still in the $111 to $120 region IMO, with the preferred area being closer to $115, given the momentum right now. Sometimes these things reverse on a dime, so a very aggressive short could be taken right now. But personally I would still wait. This is a potentially huge breakout and has strong momentum up, so it's not something I would step into yet.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #34 (permalink)
Elite Member
Mumbai, India
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Favorite Futures: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
 
iqgod's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,659 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,312 given, 2,719 received


josh View Post
We now stand here, after the Syria threat has pushed this market $8 higher in the last 2 days:

We are sitting around $112 tonight at this moment. The sweet spot for a short is still in the $111 to $120 region IMO, with the preferred area being closer to $115, given the momentum right now. Sometimes these things reverse on a dime, so a very aggressive short could be taken right now. But personally I would still wait. This is a potentially huge breakout and has strong momentum up, so it's not something I would step into yet.

Good observations @josh

..... however it is the top of the trading range that has emerged after the "Big Up Big Down" move and like all trading ranges this will behave in a manner to preserve itself.

A double top bear flag also presents itself now after the breakout and it seems right to short right away, while watching the chart carefully.

Also a bull trendline has been broken - to me the "huge breakout" reeks of climactic exhaustion i.e. the market would be hard pressed to find buyers in this zone and the correct way seems down atleast to retest 86. From there a fresh call would have to be taken.

IMHO.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to iqgod for this post:
 
  #35 (permalink)
Elite Member
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, IRT, ToS, Ninja
Broker/Data: Stage 5
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
bob7123's Avatar
 
Posts: 588 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 109 given, 1,907 received

Taking a fundamental look at it, I saw this Time Magazine article... Vladir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices to Save Russia | TIME.com


Quoting 
Falling oil prices make just about everyone happy. [...] But Vladimir Putin is not one of them. The economy that the Russian President has built not only runs on oil, but runs on oil priced extremely high. Falling oil prices means rising problems for Russia – both for the strength of its economic performance, and possibly, the strength of Putin himself.

Despite the fact that Russia has been labeled one of the world’s most promising emerging markets, often mentioned in the same breath as China and India, the Russian economy is actually quite different from the others. [...] Russia is little more than an oil state in disguise. The country is the largest producer of oil in the world (yes, bigger even than Saudi Arabia), and Russia’s dependence on crude has been increasing. About a decade ago, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s exports; in recent years, that share has risen to two-thirds. Most of all, oil provides more than half of the federal government’s revenues.

In that light, I find Russia's role in the "Syria issue" interesting. Clearly oil exporting countries want higher prices, but one may be more motivated (desperate perhaps) to make it happen.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bob7123 for this post:
 
  #36 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received


iqgod View Post
..... however it is the top of the trading range that has emerged after the "Big Up Big Down" move and like all trading ranges this will behave in a manner to preserve itself.

A double top bear flag also presents itself now after the breakout and it seems right to short right away, while watching the chart carefully.

Also a bull trendline has been broken - to me the "huge breakout" reeks of climactic exhaustion i.e. the market would be hard pressed to find buyers in this zone and the correct way seems down atleast to retest 86. From there a fresh call would have to be taken.

@iqgod, can you post a chart(s)? Remember that the initial post in the thread was regarding a long-term short, i.e. 6-12 months.

Reply With Quote
 
  #37 (permalink)
Elite Member
wa/ usa
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: schwab, metatrader, OEC,T4,TDameritrade
Favorite Futures: CL ES 6C 6E
 
Posts: 254 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 197 given, 438 received

Isnt it better to short either the current or front month CL than 6 months out and rollover each expiration. You could catch a decent dip like this last week from 108 to 102--now it retraces to possibly 105.60 area and reload.

Reply With Quote
 
  #38 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Los Angeles, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Custom
Favorite Futures: Options
 
Posts: 17 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 12 given, 5 received


Fat Tails View Post
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

@Fat Tails

I have not used ninjatrader before so I am not familiar with the signals it offers. The signal lines in the chart you have above looks like moving averages, but could I ask exactly what they are? Thanks.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to luck for this post:
 
  #39 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,652 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


luck View Post
@Fat Tails

I have not used ninjatrader before so I am not familiar with the signals it offers. The signal lines in the chart you have above looks like moving averages, but could I ask exactly what they are? Thanks.

The indicator is called trigger lines.

The leading line is a linear regression line with a period of 34 (comes as a default indicator with NinjaTrader and is called LinReg).

The second line is a 5-period exponential moving average of the linear regression line.

You can download the indicator here (elite members only):

https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/731-download.html?view

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Time to Short Crude Oil?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crude Oil trading JDNeeman Trading Journals 526 November 24th, 2016 08:12 PM
What's next for Crude Oil? Big Mike Commodities Futures Trading 16 October 6th, 2012 11:16 PM
Crude Oil Contract Roll Over Bramhall17 Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 29th, 2012 04:14 PM
Crude Oil low, which is correct? crudetrader Reviews of Brokers and Data Feeds 8 January 9th, 2011 10:19 AM
BruteForce-Crude Oil Zoethecus Trading Journals 32 July 14th, 2010 01:16 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:09 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.227.51.103