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Trading oil (CL) intraday during a black swan
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Trading oil (CL) intraday during a black swan

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Brussels, Belgium
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 11 since May 2013
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Trading oil (CL) intraday during a black swan

I'm following CL charts intraday since a couple of weeks. Can someone with some years experience trading CL tell me how much CL is moving intraday with a black swan event? What kind of moves does CL make on a very bad day? I think I remember a flash crash in oil a couple of years ago?


Last edited by Big Mike; May 24th, 2013 at 06:29 PM.
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  #3 (permalink)
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I'm following CL charts intraday since a couple of weeks. Can someone with some years experience trading CL tell me how much CL is moving intraday with a black swan event? What kind of moves does CL make on a very bad day? I think I remember a flash crash in oil a couple of years ago?


There was a feedback loop in March Crude Oil futures on February 13 2012. The markets were halted from about 2:00 PM to 3:15 PM, before trading resumed. This event is know as the NYMEX Black Swan.

During this period crude moved approximately half a point higher.

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However, your risk is much higher, if you have a short position in the old front month 1 or 2 days prior to the expiry.

The most frightening event happened on September 22, when crude oil price jumped by $ 25 per barril during a single day. Most of the explanations given for this rise were dead wrong. It was the last day of trading for the Octobar contract, and the November contract only rose by $ 6 per barril.

The main reason for the short squeeze was the strange place of delivery for the physical oil. Delivery takes place in Cushing, Oklahoma, and it is not easy to get physical oil there, if you hold a short position. Don't trade the old contract during the last 2 days prior to expiry!


Last edited by Fat Tails; May 25th, 2013 at 06:53 AM.
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  #4 (permalink)
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What about big moves down intraday?

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Are you worried about biggest possible interday move, or how badly a STOP/MKT order could slip, or what?

This is the kind of risk oriented question where any responsible answer requires understanding what you intend to use the information for.

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