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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
John Kemp had some interesting Natural Gas charts in this mornings email regarding US heating demand for winter 2019/20 to be roughly -8% below the long-term seasonal average through Jan. 13: . (If your not on John's daily 'energy news' blast I would strongly recommend it. Signup Here.)
Here are 2019/2020 gwHDD running total from July 1, 2019 to Jan 20, 2020. Long term avg (1980-2010) is 2,485. 2019/2020 is 2,303. That's a -182 DD difference. https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Another smaller than historical withdrawal again this week (-115 vs -150ish). I believe this is the 6th time in 7 weeks that this has happened. Storage at 2,494 Bcf is now 612 Bcf over last year at this time and about 215 Bcf above the 5 year average.
Gas prices for most of the country are below prompt month futures. There's a 20-30c premium for the most constrained areas in the Northeast (ie New York/Transco Zone 6 and Boston/Algonquin, Iroquois) with some legs of Tennessee Pipeline pricing even higher. Other than that San Fran (PG&E) and LA (Socal CityGate) are the only other premium points at 2.65 and 2.35 respectively. At the other extreme, gas in West Texas (Permian & Waha) is 40c!
As someone who only knows squiggly lines on charts, I'm always impressed and happy to read something about the real world. I don't know what to do about any of it, and frankly am not going to try to compete with the ones who do know.
But it is reassuring to know that there is something out there in the world and that somebody does know about it. Whatever it might mean.
Thanks.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
@SMCJB, without giving away the farm, how comprehensive is your analysis of LNG market dynamics?
Are you checking population-Weighted Degree Days (heating/cooling) on a national level plus exports for implied demand, then daily production & imports on supply?
I've been briefing through piles of charts dealing with GFS and ECMWF forecasts for WDDs, which can lead to a decent headache, given how quickly the forecasts can change...and ECMWF is generally seen to be more accurate (i.e. year-to-date, less dramatic) than GFS. In trying to zoom out beyond N America weather dynamics, that leads to looking at ENSO data and so on, but I sure as heck don't have a "Buy here, sell here" system yet.
Some of the data scientry (sic) types pitch certain machine learning tools for forecasting, but I'm not sold on that yet...rather just pull the historical supply & demand data and try for a 'probabilistic' logic set, based on some rough visual backtesting, then try to dial it in from there without overfitting.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Sorry for lack of reply. Not sure how I missed this. I'm a career energy trader having traded for some of the largest energy traders in the world who is now a prop trader trading for himself. While I do follow a lot of fundamentals my Natural Gas trading is not that fundamental in nature any more so the level of analysis I do is less than it was and a lot less than prop trading desks will do. I'm aware of high level LNG dynamics (actually did some work years ago with several LNG groups) but don't model them specifically. Ditto storage and weather. Most of what I follow is from publicly available information and not proprietary.
