Trading natural gas futures - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Trading natural gas futures
Updated: Views / Replies:16,276 / 109
Created: by mannya Attachments:8

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 8  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Trading natural gas futures

  #31 (permalink)
Elite Member
NYC, NY
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Qtrader
Broker/Data: Amp and Optimus and CQG
Favorite Futures: Mainly NG and GC, Futures option selling. Spread researcher currently
 
Posts: 494 since May 2013
Thanks: 431 given, 215 received

Has the widowmaker ever gone negative?


SMCJB View Post
The "Widow Maker" specifically refers to the Natural Gas March-April spread and not to Natural Gas in general, but you are right at times Natural Gas can be violently volatile. So volatile in fact for many years it was considered completely inappropriate for retail and even many pro traders. With the extra supply of Natural Gas from Shale Drilling, NG fundamentals have been relatively bearish for several years now, and volatility has also been greatly depressed. One cold winter can turn that around very quickly though.

Has the March/April ever been negative? I can see the spread is pretty low.. this morning it was 0.060.. has this ever become negative? like March lesser than April?

If no, then is it just a matter of buying it and knowing when to get out on a spike.. before a decline into March?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jokertrader for this post:
 
  #32 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,840 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,285 given, 5,017 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

It goes negative quite often but only leading up to expiry when its obvious that there is enough gas in storage to meet end of winter demand. I don't think I've ever seen it go negative early in the winter. I might run some numbers tonight and look.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #33 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,840 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,285 given, 5,017 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


So in the last 18 years the average HJ spread goes negative about 2 weeks before expiry.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #34 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,840 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,285 given, 5,017 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

One more.

That last one made it seem like HJ was unseasonably low, but those averages and standard deviations are heavily influenced by pre-2008. This is how it changes when we only look at last 10 years. (Scales are slightly shorter)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #35 (permalink)
Elite Member
NYC, NY
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Qtrader
Broker/Data: Amp and Optimus and CQG
Favorite Futures: Mainly NG and GC, Futures option selling. Spread researcher currently
 
Posts: 494 since May 2013
Thanks: 431 given, 215 received

Thanks but comparing the black line

In the last graph.. if the average is the black line.. doesnt look like its a clean spike up.. in fact a gentle trend down

so its hope for cold winter.. less storage for spike up...unless im not reading it right

of course several years have the winter spike.. some of the colored spikes on 1st graph....but still plenty of years/lines are all just gently downtrending.. the lines at the bottom of the 1st graph


Last edited by jokertrader; December 13th, 2017 at 07:12 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jokertrader for this post:
 
  #36 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,840 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,285 given, 5,017 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

If we run out of gas, March's fundamental's are scarcity pricing. If we don't run out of gas, any gas left in ground stays there until next year, and March almost becomes the first injection month for the following year, and as such trades flat or below April. For the last 10 years the latter case has been predominant hence Mar/Apr gradually declines as it becomes more and more certain that we have ample gas supplies in storage.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #37 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,840 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,285 given, 5,017 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

With the much lower levels of stocks this year than previous years, and the increased LNG demand, I thought the fundamentals were more supportive than in the last few years. I don't normally make directional trades in NG or CL but am currently slightly long and apparently wrong! Still seems very early to be giving up on winter

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #38 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,840 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 2,285 given, 5,017 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Not sure if this means anything, but I was curious to see how the spreads 'ranked' versus previous years. Since I created it, thought I might as well post it.

For 2019 a little surprised that given how far below the average we are that the rank wasn't lower, but I guess that illustrates how skewed the upside numbers are.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #39 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,455 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,805 given, 1,812 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


SMCJB View Post
One more.

That last one made it seem like HJ was unseasonably low, but those averages and standard deviations are heavily influenced by pre-2008. This is how it changes when we only look at last 10 years. (Scales are slightly shorter)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

The NGJ-NGH spread is called widow maker for good reason. Usually it works, but if there is a cold blast at the wrong time it can be terribly expensive to be on the wrong side.

I bought some cheap NGH calls recently. Weather experts expect La Nina with a probability of approx. 70 %, and this would result in cold weather in the North of US.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #40 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,455 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,805 given, 1,812 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



myrrdin View Post
The NGJ-NGH spread is called widow maker for good reason. Usually it works, but if there is a cold blast at the wrong time it can be terribly expensive to be on the wrong side.

I bought some cheap NGH calls recently. Weather experts expect La Nina with a probability of approx. 70 %, and this would result in cold weather in the North of US.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Today from Dave Hightower:

"The US Climate Prediction Center increased the La Nina probability to 92 % from 73 % for the December - February timeframe ... "

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Trading natural gas futures

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
 

Pro Trader vs Pro Athlete w/Brannigan Barrett @ Habitus Capital

Elite only
 

60 Minutes to Better Decisions & Better Trades w/Agustin Lebron

Elite only
 

Live Day Trading the E-MICROS w/Ilan @ Cannon (special time: 12PM ET)

May 30
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Can Natural Gas Replace Regular Gasoline? Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 March 9th, 2013 04:50 PM
Trading NG (natural gas) tellytub Commodities Futures Trading 11 November 23rd, 2012 08:52 PM
FCG: Revere Natural Gas Fund, ... Mountain Hiker Stocks and ETFs Trading 1 September 11th, 2012 05:46 PM
How Natural Gas Is Changing The Global Energy Market Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 March 2nd, 2012 09:20 PM
Why One Natural-Gas Producer Wants Prices to Keep Falling Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 January 20th, 2011 02:00 PM


Tags
6e, ai, algo, algo trading, algos, amp, average, bid/ask, bitcoin, broker, brokers, buy, chat, cl, commodities, comparison, correlation, data, day trade, day trading, daytrading, dow, eia report, el, elliott_wave_theory, email, energies, es, est, futures, futures trading, hft, index futures, information, instrument, interactive brokers, intraday, journal, limit, list, loss, margin, mirus_futures, natural gas, news, nymex, oil trading, open interest, options, pairs, people, price action, reduce risk, research, reward, short, size, spread, spreads, stocks, support, systems, tapatalk, think or swim, thinkorswim, timeframe, tos, trade management, trade setups, traded, tradestation, trading, trend, volatility, wave

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:43 PM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432 WhatsApp Business, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2019-05-20 in 0.17 seconds with 34 queries on phoenix