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Trading natural gas futures
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Trading natural gas futures

  #91 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
@ElChacal I believe a high percentage is associated, which is why they keep producing even though prices don't support. (Waha has been under $1 often in the last 3 months and I believe the Waha First of the Month price for December was actually negative. Meaning if you sold somebody gas at Waha based upon First of Month Index, you would have had to pay them to take it from you!)



Lack of pipelines and storage correct. No other option but to flare it.


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  #92 (permalink)
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ridiculous

What are you trading? The price of NG or are you a producer/consumer? How many contracts are you trading daily weekly monthly? this is utterly ridiculous.

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  #93 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
NG margins drop 20%/$1100 effective tonite.
(Feb & Mar only, but G&H are 300% of April).

NG Margins for
- Mar18 drop $1000 from $4600 to $3600
- Apr18 -$150 to $1550,
- May18 -$100 to $1330
- Balance Summer -$100 to $1100
- Next Winter -$100 to $1275

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  #94 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
NG Margins for
- Mar18 drop $1000 from $4600 to $3600
- Apr18 -$150 to $1550,
- May18 -$100 to $1330
- Balance Summer -$100 to $1100
- Next Winter -$100 to $1275

NG Margins drop again. Mar18 drops $850 to $2750. Everything else unchanged.
Winter has gone!

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  #95 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
NG Margins drop again. Mar18 drops $850 to $2750. Everything else unchanged.
Winter has gone!

$850 is the drop for maintenance margin. It's $935 for initial margin.

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  #96 (permalink)
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For clarification, that is only partly correct. $850 is the actual reported drop in margin. This is the change in initial margin for NYMEX members. This is how they think about it, and how they announce it. (Margin Decrease Announcement). Its also the only margin number they list on their website (NYMEX NG Margins). It is true though that Non-member initial margin is set at 110% of member margin, which you are correct would equal a $935 drop for non-members. As a member I think about it as an $850 drop. As a non-member you think about it as 110% of $850 or $985. Maybe semantics to many, but there is an actual difference.

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  #97 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
NG Margins drop again. Mar18 drops $850 to $2750. Everything else unchanged.
Winter has gone!

NG Margins drop again
- H8 down $900 to $1850
- J8 down $250 to $1300
- K8 down $200 to $1100
Retail non member margins will be 10% higher

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  #98 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
NG Margins drop again
- H8 down $900 to $1850
- J8 down $250 to $1300
- K8 down $200 to $1100
Retail non member margins will be 10% higher

Since this doesn't take effect until Feb 27, 2019 (after H9 is expired) you meant to say,
- J9 up to $1850 from $1550
- K9 unchanged at $1300
- M9 unchanged at $1100
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Last edited by ron99; February 25th, 2019 at 06:07 PM.
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  #99 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Since this doesn't take effect until Feb 27, 2019 (after H9 is expired) you meant to say,
- J9 up to $1850 from $1550
- K9 unchanged at $1300
- M9 unchanged at $1100

Your right @ron99

NG "Tier" Margins are dropping (which is actually what they announced)
- Tier 1 down $900 to $1850
- Tier 2 down $250 to $1300
- Tier 3 down $200 to $1100

But as you highlighted since this is effective 27th, and March expires on the 26th, April is going from Tier 2 to Tier 1, which results in an actual increase.

So if you have an April position margin is going up.
If you have a prompt month position, and are rolling March to April, then margins go down.

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  #100 (permalink)
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Jura View Post
Why?

If you're trading an illiquid instrument, and big players start to unwind, will you as retail trader not suffer from erratic price movements, widening of the bid/ask spread, and more often being stopped out? That would be like August 2007, I suppose. And didn't the liquidity dried up during the Flash Crash? That could not have been a good trading day for retail traders.

So yes, for the order size of retail traders the liquidity is not very relevant. But if liquidity disappears, this affects the whole market - retail traders included.

Thanks for explaining that well. What would you say is a minimum number of daily contracts to consider a product quite liquid?

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