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It also depends on how many contracts you trade. 1 contract in the ZB compared to 1 CL. In the CL you may be limited by the Margin...also most of the Volatility you see today wasn't around last year. The moves in the CL were not any better than the ES.
In the ZB I have time to plan and think. I don't have to worry to much about stop runs which a very prevalent in the CL, ES.
I can trade easily 1-35 contracts and get my fill. Yes I have traded 35 contracts and have the daily statements to prove it.
I normally trade 5 - 10 contracts on a $500. margin (2500-5000). The CL intraday is $1000.
And by the way I trade from around 7 am EST to about 10:30 am...and make 30 50 ticks no problem.
I am considering opening up a room to watch me trade real money...
Before I trade in the morning around 5:30 - 6:00 I pull up my daily chart.
What you see is a candelstick chart of the ZB daily. I also use "Price Action Swing" indicator and the Vol lines are Logic Volumn Wand.
I look back to and through the last significant low and high.
I choose my "major" support and resistance levels from the Vol areas here and mark them in my Jigsaw DOM. (next Pic.)
You can see that the downward pressure after Fridays Employment stopped right on the 154'27 high Vol Support.
The overnight gap up and three days of upward movement corresponded with the "Green Peaks of the Logik Vol.
Monday centering around 156'13, Tuesday 158'18 and Wednesday 158'18 to 159'16. This is a clear reversal pattern.
The inability to close on the low of Thursday and the same on Friday leads me to believe that a couple of things are very likley.
1. The open tonight the price moves directly up for a gap up open at 8:20 Monday morning. To move to, and past the Thursday high of 160'24 and towards 161'31 either by Tuesday or by the close of Monday. By The close of Tuesday and or by Wednesday before the FOMC announcement the price could easily be near or through the 162'28 to 163'02 high of 2/26/2015. Depending on the "patients" of the FOMC up to 164'29.
2. We move up into the congestion of 158'18 and 160'02 and consolidate here for a couple of days. Until the FOMC notes Wednesday evening.
Either way I thing I will err on the long side and look for long trades to stay in. I may go long tonight with a 3 tick stop at the open.
$100. bet...
"I choose my "major" support and resistance levels from the Vol areas here and mark them in my Jigsaw DOM. (next Pic.)"
Here is the screen I use to trade with. I used to have 4 screens but boiled them down to 1.
To get to an early point before I explain what you see in total. In the DOM's center screens you will notice the far left "black" column with green notations. This is where I mark Major support and resistance as well as other important information.
The BBB is triple bottom, the TT is double top, the O is just a place holder so I can see the movement from a "benchmark" place.
The column second from the left with the pink and blue boxes is the volumn for the day. This is giving me support and resistance information for the session I am trading. I try to trade the edges of these areas not the node. I will set my stops on the other side of the HVOL areas.
As you can see I manage my trade with Jigsaw. I minimize the information of price to the last 2 digits to save screen space.
If you look at the "Dark Blue and Red Columns" and the Ninja Trader DOM that what most traders see.
The gray column is what traded at that price, what hit the bid blue text / ask red. The light blue and light red are what many do not see but is very important. This is where you can see pulling limit orders and adding orders.
The blue box to the right is my order and its place in line to be filled.
I use the UB as an early warning of price movement, it moves faster and farther than the ZB. When it stops and turns back, depending if I am at support or resistance or BB or TT, I determine then to stay in take profit or stop out when I am wrong.
My charts are Range not time...I don't care about time except when I am in a trade(Blue box bottom right of the ZB chart).
My indicators are HeikenAshi, to smooth the direction, Price Action Swing for the tick count and price line so I can see price relative to the length of the chart to the left. SMA 7,14,21,50...
The trade timer was programmed for me by Muly at Final and it stays up after you close the trade to tell you how much tome you have been in the trade.
During consolidation and I am scalping, I am usually only in a trade few seconds.
166 could be reached this week... maybe wait for pullback to 162 15 area then buy ....
. The open tonight the price moves directly up for a gap up open at 8:20 Monday morning. To move to, and past the Thursday high of 160'24 and towards 161'31 either by Tuesday or by the close of Monday. By The close of Tuesday and or by Wednesday before the FOMC announcement the price could easily be near or through the 162'28 to 163'02 high of 2/26/2015. Depending on the "patients" of the FOMC up to 164'29.
@ Bill Williams, usually price has to trade through the price to get a limit order fill at the bid/ask. You could of course always place a market order to hit the bid/ask if you want to immediately be in position.
Think about this way from the time and sales stand point, the line for waiting pending orders to be filled is usually 2,000-3,500 deep during normal New York volume, and there may only be 500-1,400 orders filled at that price during a 5-15 minute window, so if you're at the back of the line, expect for price to have to move before you get filled.
And then of course, once it trades through that tick, there's enough liquidity to fill 25-50 contracts without a problem if you need size.
If you have downloaded level II data and using it in Market replay is pretty much accurate as the real market. Usually the fills are good in ZB. Just prepare your self to be very patience trading this instrument, cause it can be veeeery slow at times..
The book is pretty thin on ZB lately, so fill no problem. Look for trapped big size in the end of the moves of 6-10 ticks and enter against them. Market profile is working good as well, move from POC to the edges and back.
