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Started:January 7th, 2013 (05:43 AM) by lsubeano Views / Replies:3,114 / 22
Last Reply:March 28th, 2016 (10:29 AM) Attachments:0

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Old January 7th, 2013, 05:43 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Who's looking to go long?

+1 for me

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Old January 7th, 2013, 05:43 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Old January 7th, 2013, 11:50 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Who's looking to go long?

+1 for me

See my analysis over in the Selling Options on Futures thread.
I have closed my SOLD calls and only have SOLD puts left.

I do think we are trying to find a bottom here but it is still too early to say just yet.


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Old January 7th, 2013, 12:05 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Raw sugar and coffee rose on speculation that investment funds that track commodity indexes will increase their holdings. Cocoa, cotton and orange juice also advanced.

Investors will probably buy 31,451 contracts of raw sugar and 11,148 lots of arabica coffee as weightings shift for the Standard & Poor’s GSCI and Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, Morgan Stanley estimates. The changes may bring inflows of $1.5 billion to the sugar, coffee, cocoa and cotton markets, Hussein Allidina, the head of commodities research at the bank in New York, said in a report today.
Sugar, coffee gain as index funds rebalance; cocoa, cotton rise
So this buying will not last long. Right now coffee is down 2 or 0.02, depending on your price format, from the peak today.

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Old January 7th, 2013, 09:41 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Good info.

I've never traded options in my life. Nice trade on KC. I agree, not sure about bottom yet, but I'm ok taking a contract off for a bit of profit and getting stopped out until it runs.

I'm looking at cocoa and coffee for hopefully multi-month holdings.

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Old January 7th, 2013, 11:16 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Trying my hand at some basic analysis:

According to the j. Ganes December report - Per the USDA numbers, last year there was a statistical loss of 11.5 mil bags. The year before that there was 8 mil bag difference. In three seasons, this implies a total loss of more than 22 mil bags that are simply unaccounted for. This could lead to supplies being larger than officiallu reported.

Also, the seasonality chart for KCH13 shows a top in Jan/Feb. Reason to be bearish on Coffee? Sell Calls 205/210, DTE 32, if able to get fills?

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Old January 10th, 2013, 10:08 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Coffeee is my best money making commoditiy for the last 8 months. I have been selling calls and at the moment I sold May 195 calls.

Good luck,
Alfredo E.

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Old January 11th, 2013, 01:48 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Im using CQG datafeed, and loaded KC 3-13 chart, I've loaded 50 days worth of data and get no data? Can you see the coffee charts in Ninjatrader CQG


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Old January 11th, 2013, 05:13 PM   #9 (permalink)
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+2 pullback to 152 looks good for long

Strategy ≥ Money
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Old January 25th, 2013, 10:56 AM   #10 (permalink)
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You ag traders are awesome. I don't know how you do it. The few times I looked at ag products, it was so amazingly slow it seemed like it took an hour for the price to move a tick. It left me with the impression that if I'm going to trade wheat, I'd get more action just planting it in my backyard and watching it grow.

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