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I'm not completely sure of what is taking place, but my guess is that the last wave up is ending up to be Effort vs. Reward. The last wave up in CL drew out 700k contracts, but made no progress above the prior high. There was the possibility that absorption was taking place in preparation for a continued move higher. In looking at the most recent price action it appears to be rolling over. The weekly chart is still bullish and a move higher is of course possible, but there may be a drop first. The charts attached show the daily, 3 hour and 3K tick chart. I think in the near term we have been seeing a large effort with little reward and supply coming in. See the highlighted areas on the charts. As always, be nimble, if no follow through to the down side.
Looking at the last 4 pushes up numbers 3 and 4 didn't have as much umpf (technical term) indicating weakness. As we fall I would guess we will find support at one of the previous areas I marked with yellow lines. Your mileage may vary.
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
Was wondering what indicators do you use for volume/swing/Contract count? I downloaded the "cumulative volume" one for ninja (I think it was created by the guy who uses the Wycoffe method) - but it didn't work well showing swing volume count and/or the cumulative volume waves at the bottom.
Can you please refer me to the indicator(s) you sue (recent versions) and maybe a workspace file?
I'm using the Weis Wave. It is from David Weis. It is not free. It can be obtained at weisonwyckoff.com. There is one on the forum here called price action swing that may do what you want.
I want to whole heatedly thank @greenr & @Private Banker for this thread. I finished reading it full, took me almost 2 weeks to absorb all that, but surely now i am ready to trade with a better perspective & dimension to my real time analysis. Thanks once again!!!
