CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

January 30th, 2013, 11:20 AM

This week Vwap

January 30th, 2013, 11:50 AM

We have some incredibly choppy trade today. We got a number of 5.9M. You would think we would've sold off hard but the market is remaining resilient thus far. Delta is very negative and I'm looking for further exploration lower into yesterday's profile. We'll see if we can get there.

We have the FOMC statement/Rate today which could be one reason for the sideways chop. The USD has been selling off today but attempting to find some support. A spike higher in the USD could be the catalyst to really get this market moving lower.

January 30th, 2013, 11:59 AM

greenr

Missed my 1st scale out.....

Im taking a break for a bit....cannot seem to get in the flow of todays market

The problem with that trade location was that RTH VWAP had not exhibited any support or resistance within today's price action vs. the DVAH which did and had confluence based on the bigger picture. Had you waited for that area (DVAH), it would have been a smooth sail for you. Hopefully that makes sense.

January 30th, 2013, 12:05 PM

Private Banker

The problem with that trade location was that RTH VWAP had not exhibited any support or resistance within today's price action vs. the DVAH which did and had confluence based on the bigger picture. Had you waited for that area (DVAH), it would have been a smooth sail for you. Hopefully that makes sense.

100% i knew it as soon as it failed, i just got caught up in the heat of this crappy price action!

I managed to hold the position, slightly more risk than i allow

I had my stop above todays RTH value

Just got my 1st 1/3 off finally......today has been rather pear shapped for me

But i have managed my risk well in the 1st few trades keeping my head above water

January 30th, 2013, 12:15 PM

greenr

What i did this morning

I went long on the open drive this morning

We opened in range, out of balane, but in value

How ever we trying to rejected yesterdays value area

Attachment 100987

Attachment 100988

Now to test and try break yesterdays HOD

I am still confused by this. What did you see that told you to go long? When you say you went long on the Open Drive, can you really tell the opening type even before the "A" period completes? Could you please share (maybe footprint) what you saw at the Open that you decided to go long.

Thanks

January 30th, 2013, 12:23 PM

kulu

I am still confused by this. What did you see that told you to go long? When you say you went long on the Open Drive, can you really tell the opening type even before the "A" period completes? Could you please share (maybe footprint) what you saw at the Open that you decided to go long.

Thanks

@kulu

Just on my preperation this morning i was thinking

If we open were we open

roatate down into yesterdays profile, i would like to see buyers and a rejection of value

Thats what i was think and here is what i saw

I was wrong/right...either way i know im still learning and that why i post on here so other people with better knowlage can pick holes in what im doing and think so i can learn for it

Here is what i saw.....

Rotation dowin into high volume area

Here is what i saw on the open on the foot print........

Also we were holding ETH VWap 1st dev into the open

That was my vew...what i did

Right or wrong i still managed to get 2 scale outs with minimal risk

There are other reason why i though we might carry on long today.....im not going to expalin every detail though

January 30th, 2013, 12:31 PM

So the market made a second attempt on an expansion run and we had a TPO bracket close outside of the IB we then came right back into the IB. That's a signal to cover your short position if short.

As for this morning's open, what we had was an open in balance. What that typically calls for is that there generally isn't a trade opportunity right away. You'll want to let the market shake itself out first and wait for an extreme. With that being said, had we opened out of balance and came down and tested the previous session high, then I could see taking the long with the thought of the market rejecting the previous session's value/balance.

January 30th, 2013, 12:41 PM

Private Banker

So the market made a second attempt on an expansion run and we had a TPO bracket close outside of the IB we then came right back into the IB. That's a signal to cover your short position if short.

As for this morning's open, what we had was an open in balance. What that typically calls for is that there generally isn't a trade opportunity right away. You'll want to let the market shake itself out first and wait for an extreme. With that being said, had we opened out of balance and came down and tested the previous session high, then I could see taking the long with the thought of the market rejecting the previous session's value/balance.

Im learning every day...this stuff is NOT EASY!

I got today wrong, for some reason i was thinking that we did not actually forum balance yesterday

So even though we opened up with in yesterday’s range, i had it in my head that we was not in balance

This is what I’m finding the hardest to define

There are so many variable in my un experience mind regards

Balance, value, out of balance, out of value, in a bracket, out side a bracket

there is a art to identifying this stuff and its not the normaly way you would go about think and drawing these market structures

I mean to some of you this might just be a natural way of thinking

But for me...not with MAJOR experience in the way of thinking it’s hard

Im learning fast...but along the way im having hiccups that i am learning from

January 30th, 2013, 01:25 PM

greenr

Im learning every day...this stuff is NOT EASY!

I got today wrong, for some reason i was thinking that we did not actually forum balance yesterday

So even though we opened up with in yesterday�s range, i had it in my head that we was not in balance

This is what I�m finding the hardest to define

There are so many variable in my un experience mind regards

Balance, value, out of balance, out of value, in a bracket, out side a bracket

there is a art to identifying this stuff and its not the normaly way you would go about think and drawing these market structures

I mean to some of you this might just be a natural way of thinking

But for me...not with MAJOR experience in the way of thinking it�s hard

Im learning fast...but along the way im having hiccups that i am learning from

Very cool. Here is what I saw with regards to yesterday's balance.

January 30th, 2013, 01:34 PM

Private Banker

Very cool. Here is what I saw with regards to yesterday's balance.

very nice

i think the main reason for the drive behind my long bias on today other than not fully understanding the price structure was.........

In mind over markets and markets in profile

They talk above having excess at the highs to work with

So...i thought with the poor high we put in yesterday with no real excess as a key level

We would want to probe higher to finish the auction to prove to the smart money that there are a lack of buyers and sellers responded.......giving the shorts confidence to sell into yesterday’s balance/value

I was sitting in bed last night.....as you do

I try to imagine how were going to try and open...

The different scenarios that i could wake up to and how i would handle them

I was thinking if we open gap up...look for buyers...rotation down into yesterday’s high. Tag the highs and watch the buyer respond

if we opened in range to sell the highs of the range

But when we opened up i think i just confused myself from over thinking the situations...making myself believe we were out of balance. Once i saw the strong buyers on the open i thought i had it nailed

Any ways thats my story hope you enjoyed

I drew a new bracket...also wrong!

CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC