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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC
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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

  #721 (permalink)
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Todays apparent market

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greenr View Post
In mind over markets and markets in profile

They talk above having excess at the highs to work with

So...i thought with the poor high we put in yesterday with no real excess as a key level

We would want to probe higher to finish the auction to prove to the smart money that there are a lack of buyers and sellers responded.......giving the shorts confidence to sell into yesterdayís balance/value

Ok, maybe I'm overthinking this but, I've always thought the same (poor high/low w/ no excess should be tested and possibly broken). After reading the last few posts I might be confusing myself.

PB, are you suggesting that the poor high should hold or be broken?

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  #723 (permalink)
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Goldstone15 View Post
Ok, maybe I'm overthinking this but, I've always thought the same (poor high/low w/ no excess should be tested and possibly broken). After reading the last few posts I might be confusing myself.

PB, are you suggesting that the poor high should hold or be broken?

I sure hope so. I just took a long from the DVAL. Sometimes poor highs or lows can signify a key reversal however, I don't see anything resistance wise quite yet. My earlier short bias was based on yesterday's extremes. Now that the market made an attempt to move lower and pop back up into the IB its becoming clear that the market has not established enough excess at today's high.

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  #724 (permalink)
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Alright, we cleaned up the poor high on this move. I was targeting the first upper IB extension as a final exit into the close. I got filled on that final amount which is great right after the close. I don't normally hold anything after the close but based on the price action, it appeared that we would get there. That was from one extreme to the other.

Anyway, here is what I was looking at as that move was setting up. Like I said, we made an attempt to expand lower into yesterday's profile. We initially found support at the ON low and 1st IB extension. We got a TPO bracket that closed outside of the IB on the second attempt lower with the next bracket coming right back in to balance. That's a cover signal typically on a rotational day like today. With that being observed, I noted that the market established excess to the downside so I just waited for price to come back down into support at the DVAL, waited for delta/buying absorption and got long with the intent of "cleaning up" the poor high we had on the day.

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Pretty lack luster day today. We may be reaching the upper spectrum of this move. I'm still looking for the market to fill the large gap above now that we've made it this far up. We continue to one time frame higher on the weekly chart which makes me think the chances are pretty good to get there. Like anything of course, we'll just have to wait and see.

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  #725 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
@kulu

Just on my preparation this morning i was thinking

If we open were we open

rotate down into yesterdays profile, i would like to see buyers and a rejection of value

That's what i was think and here is what i saw

I was wrong/right...either way i know im still learning and that why i post on here so other people with better knowledge can pick holes in what im doing and think so i can learn for it

Here is what i saw.....

Attachment 101015

Rotation down into high volume area

Attachment 101016

Here is what i saw on the open on the foot print........

Also we were holding ETH VWap 1st dev into the open

Attachment 101017

That was my view...what i did

Right or wrong i still managed to get 2 scale outs with minimal risk

There are other reason why i though we might carry on long today.....im not going to expalin every detail though

@Greer,

Don't get me wrong, I am wasn't saying your were wrong, I just wanted to understand why you took the long when you did when I think we didn't have enough information to go long, in my opinion, of course. I am learning too. You don't have to explain every detail, was just curious of your thinking at the time of the trade. Also, would you take a trade based on a bounce on VWAP bands (with no confluence)?

Thank you for your posts ... very informative

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  #726 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
Im learning every day...this stuff is NOT EASY!

I got today wrong, for some reason i was thinking that we did not actually forum balance yesterday

So even though we opened up with in yesterdayís range, i had it in my head that we was not in balance

This is what Iím finding the hardest to define

There are so many variable in my un experience mind regards

Balance, value, out of balance, out of value, in a bracket, out side a bracket

there is a art to identifying this stuff and its not the normaly way you would go about think and drawing these market structures

I mean to some of you this might just be a natural way of thinking

But for me...not with MAJOR experience in the way of thinking itís hard

Im learning fast...but along the way im having hiccups that i am learning from

This is not EASY. Using market profile isn't easy at all. Why do you think most retail traders don't use market profile? I think it's because they have to put it the work to learn it before they can trade it efficiently, and most of us don't want to put in the time. And for this reason, most of us retail traders think using market profile is just trading the VAH/VAL/POC because those are easy. They use market profile tool as an indicator just like a MACD, MA, etc, where they look for signals when a,b,c happens. I am sure we all know that it's not that simple.

It amazes me to see most of us retail traders aspiring to be PROFESSIONAL traders (be it trading for yourself or a prop firm), yet we are not patient enough to LEARN the ART (SKILL) of trading. Again, for you to be a professional in this, there is a learning curve if you do it right. And it's not easy. But most of us rush into it, move from one indicator to the next, searching for the easy way out. The ones (tools) that work, take time to learn and use proficiently. Again just like a PROFESSIONAL ATHLETES, basketball, football, soccer, cricket, etc, it takes them more than 6 months, a year, two years, etc to be a professional and successful at their art. Trading is no different, yet most of us think we can do this within a month or so.

Sorry for the long message, I had to vent

I am always learning something new everyday. Again, thank you to all for contributing to my learning process. Y'all are always appreciated for your time.

Cheers, Kulu

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  #727 (permalink)
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kulu View Post
@Greer,

Don't get me wrong, I am wasn't saying your were wrong, I just wanted to understand why you took the long when you did when I think we didn't have enough information to go long, in my opinion, of course. I am learning too. You don't have to explain every detail, was just curious of your thinking at the time of the trade. Also, would you take a trade based on a bounce on VWAP bands (with no confluence)?

Thank you for your posts ... very informative

That’s ok

if anything explaining to you in detail help me to understand to

I was a little annoyed with myself, because i had the right ideas. But for some reason i went against what i knew and formed a upside bias

Think everyone is learning here......apart from one exception who continues to lead the pack

Good stuff today, i got churned up abit but came out light

I took the end of day move, i didn’t get in were PB did

I knew were going to try spike up into the close so i waited for the FOMC to be released

we got a pull back into value and most important tested vwap were i got long and held into the close

Good end to the day......

More fun to come tomorrow

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"

Last edited by greenr; January 30th, 2013 at 07:12 PM.
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  #728 (permalink)
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kulu View Post
This is not EASY. Using market profile isn't easy at all. Why do you think most retail traders don't use market profile? I think it's because they have to put it the work to learn it before they can trade it efficiently, and most of us don't want to put in the time. And for this reason, most of us retail traders think using market profile is just trading the VAH/VAL/POC because those are easy. They use market profile tool as an indicator just like a MACD, MA, etc, where they look for signals when a,b,c happens. I am sure we all know that it's not that simple.

It amazes me to see most of us retail traders aspiring to be PROFESSIONAL traders (be it trading for yourself or a prop firm), yet we are not patient enough to LEARN the ART (SKILL) of trading. Again, for you to be a professional in this, there is a learning curve if you do it right. And it's not easy. But most of us rush into it, move from one indicator to the next, searching for the easy way out. The ones (tools) that work, take time to learn and use proficiently. Again just like a PROFESSIONAL ATHLETES, basketball, football, soccer, cricket, etc, it takes them more than 6 months, a year, two years, etc to be a professional and successful at their art. Trading is no different, yet most of us think we can do this within a month or so.

Sorry for the long message, I had to vent

I am always learning something new everyday. Again, thank you to all for contributing to my learning process. Y'all are always appreciated for your time.

Cheers, Kulu

Good stuff...its good to get things of your chest

your right. Most people are just not cut out for this type of work

They wanted money handed to them on a silver platter and thats what draw them to this business

fault prospects

I have always been challenging life and i love trading because most things i do i get board of because there not challenging enough and i just catch on quickly

Even though it has bought me 5 years of frustration and misery and ALOT of cash

im 24 years old and i have dedicated 4-5 years of my life now to this business

While my friends go out evey week end i stay in and study and put the work in

From an uneducated back ground i have spent thousands of my heard earnt cash and time for wak**r to basically con me

i will name and shame one of them www.schooloftrade.com

Im lucky, i am coming out clean the other side

Only since i have been studying Market profile etc has my frustration in trading stopped becuase the markets are now logical and not so random

I now have a structured understanding and this has literally slowed the markets down for me

any ways

as a wise man said to me

always move forwards not side ways

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"

Last edited by greenr; January 30th, 2013 at 07:07 PM.
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  #729 (permalink)
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Small analysis based on pivots, noise bands and volatility targets.


The market for CL is overbought as measured against weekly and monthly levels. CL opened higher than the monthly pivot R2, which is rare. Yesterday'S move was stopped by the weekly pivot R2. This means extremely thin air.

If I look at today's pivot range it is pretty wide. A wide pivot range shows that yesterday's settlement price was close to the high. After an upday in thin air, you would not expect a continuation move, but typically a retest of yesterday's value followed by a balancing day.

If I look at my chart

-> CL stayed within in the noise bands during the night session (insignificant price action)
-> CL then tested yesterday's high
-> CL then tested yesterday's value by moving back into the pivot range
-> today's move from the open was 92 ticks, slightly less than the average of 110 ticks, not unexpected for a consolidation day
-> the weekly move from the open was 220 ticks, between the 4-weekly and 8-weekly average

After an upmove the testing of the value area is an obligation, particularly if the air is thin. The range of a consolidation day is typically below average, which was the case.

The updated versions of the indicators will be in the download section of the forum shortly.

And yes, I do use the VWAP but not on this chart.


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  #730 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Small analysis based on pivots, noise bands and volatility targets.
...

And yes, I do use the VWAP but not on this chart.

No more Fibonacci analysis!

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