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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC
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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

  #651 (permalink)
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london/england
 
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01/25/2013

What i saw and did on the open today

We opened inside yesterdays range, out of balance and out of value

My 1st thought were to sell back into value

Targeting ETH vwap and 1st lower dev

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back into the bracket below

back into yesterdays value area

back to yesterdays NPOC

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" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #652 (permalink)
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Right i got b/e on my last contract on the 1st trade

Failed to take profits at the other side of ETH vwap on the last scale out

This is become a bad habbit now!

Any ways we rotated back up into RTH value Vwap and the highs of the bracket and highs of ETH vwap 1st dev and the highs of todays TPO value area

I took a re entry short about 10 min before the home sales news at 10

I missed my 1st scale out by a few ticks and was going to flatten just before the news release

instead i just moved my stop to entry and held though the news

Lucky the market reacted negativly and i got my 1st and 2nd scale out on the push down

If i didnt have a bearish sentiment going into the news and the position the market was in i would not normally do this

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  #653 (permalink)
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Similar concept as yesterday. Open out of balance, out of value but within yesterday's range/excess area. Responsive selling right at the open. Perfect immediate trade. There were then subsequent shorts down the line. You could've traded around a position or initiated multiple trades based on whatever trade style you employ.

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I traded around a position on this move. The market was staying within the IB range. Once again, the delta was deteriorating as traders were thinking that there would be support down there. This is why Market Profile (MP) is so powerful. One of the primary rules in MP is to establish a position from the previous day's extremes. You can buy/sell the previous POC but if it comes back to you later, its best to wait for... an extreme .

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So going back into today's trading, open out of balance, responsive selling, delta deterioration, false floor under the market. I call this the pulling away the rug move. It happens all the time in this market. From a psychological perspective, traders are thinking that level will hold but aside from the underlying delta deterioration, the market was quietly one time framing lower. If you bought yesterday's POC and we can't take out the opening drive, just exit. Don't stand in the way of the bulldozer. From a MP perspective however, we formed a poor low at that point. Being long against that is very dangerous. The market will most often come back and clean that up. There is a variation to that rule however in that, the market can form a poor low or high at a key reversal area. Today's poor low was right around yesterday's POC so, it could've happened. But again, if it comes back to you and you can't take out the day's high or previous 30 minute TPO bracket, watch out!

One of the reasons why CL will balance like this for a period of time and then spike higher or lower is simply the bigger players are trading around a position. They were selling the highs of the day and backing off as we got lower. This went on for the IB period and into the number. Once the number came out, you can see sellers starting to get more aggressive and really start hitting the bid. There were buyers at the lows once again but a struggle came in at RTH VWAP and price was able to drift back up to the upper 1st Sd/VAH level and volume dried up there. As we turned around sellers were becoming more aggressive. There was one last attempt at the IB low but someone stepped in and hit the bid hard totally crushing the longs and causing stops to fire off in addition to sellers continuing to hit the bid.

Price ran all the way down to the current bracket low which is a great area to look for a confluent exit area. The 2nd and 3rd IB extensions were in between this level and both would've served as a good exit.

I would think we just balance from here for the remainder of the day unless something changes. Its Friday and I would assume many traders will be content with what we've got on the day.

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  #654 (permalink)
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Similar concept as yesterday. Open out of balance, out of value but within yesterday's range/excess area. Responsive selling right at the open. Perfect immediate trade. There were then subsequent shorts down the line. You could've traded around a position or initiated multiple trades based on whatever trade style you employ.

Hi Ben

Thank you for your excellent, informative posts. How can I get the code for the Ninjatrader Delta plot & can you tell me what the costs are. Thanks

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  #655 (permalink)
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Nice Range b4 the Next Move

https://futures.io/trading-journals/17308-day-trading-crude-without-indicators-544.html#post295851

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  #656 (permalink)
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Brutus View Post
Hi Ben

Thank you for your excellent, informative posts. How can I get the code for the Ninjatrader Delta plot & can you tell me what the costs are. Thanks

Thanks for the compliment, I'm using the Rancho Dinero indicators. All of that info is available on their website.

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  #657 (permalink)
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Hi Ben

Thank you for your excellent, informative posts. How can I get the code for the Ninjatrader Delta plot & can you tell me what the costs are. Thanks

Yes i agree, very informative. As Brutus, i'd like to ask "How can I get the code to tap into your brain at leisure and most importantly can you tell me what the cost would be." Thanks

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  #658 (permalink)
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I use TOS for the profile and monkey bars and wondered how you come up with the number of days to form a bracket ?

shane

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  #659 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Yes i agree, very informative. As Brutus, i'd like to ask "How can I get the code to tap into your brain at leisure and most importantly can you tell me what the cost would be." Thanks

Lol!!! I think this might work.

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  #660 (permalink)
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shanemcdonald28 View Post
I use TOS for the profile and monkey bars and wondered how you come up with the number of days to form a bracket ?

shane

Shane,

See this post. Its not derived upon days but upon price levels/structure.

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