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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC
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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

  #641 (permalink)
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OK well i had enough chances to take a nice scale out on that last trade and i got basically b/e!

So we tried to break out of value to the upside

We have clearly failed lower, there was a lack of sellers below todays IB and yesterdays days value area low

Here is what im looking at now

I can see we are trying to break out of todays Value area and IB highs

Targets above, yesterday Value area highs $96.63`s

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I took a terrible entry on this trade, hanging in my the skin of my teeth

Delta is positive now and we need to see RTH vwap value rejected

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #642 (permalink)
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greenr View Post
OK well i had enough chances to take a nice scale out on that last trade and i got basically b/e!

So we tried to break out of value to the upside

We have clearly failed lower, there was a lack of sellers below todays IB and yesterdays days value area low

Here is what im looking at now

I can see we are trying to break out of todays Value area and IB highs

Targets above, yesterday Value area highs $96.63`s

Attachment 100407

Attachment 100408

Attachment 100409

I took a terrible entry on this trade, hanging in my the skin of my teeth

Delta is positive now and we need to see RTH vwap value rejected

Got my 2 scale outs

Wating to see the reaction at these highs

Next stop could be yesterday high of day above us $96.73

also @ $96.87 another value area high

Year/month highs @ $96.89

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Big seller at the hi of yesterdays value area...b/e

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"

Last edited by greenr; January 24th, 2013 at 12:50 PM.
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  #643 (permalink)
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Last attempt today

have to to go out in a hr

Reversion to the mean trade

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Targeting other side of RTH vwap value @ $96

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  #644 (permalink)
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Here was my thinking on the day thus far. We had an open within yesterday's huge range however, outside yesterday's balance area but within value. We ran up to the NPOC which is where I initiated a short entry with a target to the ETH VWAP. VWAP itself was in an upward sloping position so, VWAP should be the most you should theoretically expect to get out of this trade.

We then got the inventories number which will cause some interesting price movements. After they pushed price higher, we came up to yesterday's VAH and excess area. There was great confluence there with the 1st IB extension as well as the upper 1st SD level for the weekly VWAP. So I've taken a short from there.

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I think the sell off from yesterday was partially on today's inventories number possibly being leaked.

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  #645 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Here was my thinking on the day thus far. We had an open within yesterday's huge range however, outside yesterday's balance area but within value. We ran up to the NPOC which is where I initiated a short entry with a target to the ETH VWAP. VWAP itself was in an upward sloping position so, VWAP should be the most you should theoretically expect to get out of this trade.

We then got the inventories number which will cause some interesting price movements. After they pushed price higher, we came up to yesterday's VAH and excess area. There was great confluence there with the 1st IB extension as well as the upper 1st SD level for the weekly VWAP. So I've taken a short from there.

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I think the sell off from yesterday was partially on today's inventories number possibly being leaked.

Hey Ben, you mentioned we opened outside yest balance area,but within value...Im a little confused about the term balance area i guess...are you referencing the ON data on that?

Also,upon the open, we were within yest value area, but above the ON value area.I was looking for a pb to yest val for a long,is that reasonable?we found buyers off of yest rth vwap close.

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  #646 (permalink)
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bobarian View Post
Hey Ben, you mentioned we opened outside yest balance area,but within value...Im a little confused about the term balance area i guess...are you referencing the ON data on that?

Also,upon the open, we were within yest value area, but above the ON value area.I was looking for a pb to yest val for a long,is that reasonable?we found buyers off of yest rth vwap close.

Great question. "Balance" is what I refer to as where the market facilitated two way trade. Below is a chart of what I'm referring to. The market was balanced up at the top end of yesterday's range and eventually fell out of balance. As far as "value" goes, its really tough to say that there was clear cut value on the day because of the major imbalance that occurred. My reference to value was simply what my indicator was showing. I'd put more weight on the balance vs. value in this situation.

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Hopefully that makes sense.

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  #647 (permalink)
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I wanted to post this pic for todays
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  #648 (permalink)
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bobarian View Post
Hey Ben, you mentioned we opened outside yest balance area,but within value...Im a little confused about the term balance area i guess...are you referencing the ON data on that?

Also,upon the open, we were within yest value area, but above the ON value area.I was looking for a pb to yest val for a long,is that reasonable?we found buyers off of yest rth vwap close.

PB,
thanks for the markup, I understand the idea that the cl spends most of its time in a bracket. How are you defining/ deciding that the this was your bracket high and low. If I were to create a TPO composite of the past 4 days since the breakout on the 17th, could the VAH/VAH be considered the high/low?

Thanks for the insight.

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  #649 (permalink)
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jngrim View Post
PB,
thanks for the markup, I understand the idea that the cl spends most of its time in a bracket. How are you defining/ deciding that the this was your bracket high and low. If I were to create a TPO composite of the past 4 days since the breakout on the 17th, could the VAH/VAH be considered the high/low?

Thanks for the insight.

I'm not quite sure what you're referring to but I'm guessing the bracket in which the market has been trading since the 17th. If so, we had a clean break from the previous bracket area. The break out profile provided some nice balancing as well as clear excess at each end. I want to then see how the market reacts to those levels provided we remain within the same price range. This is just how I look at it. You can certainly roll the profiles into one as well but I prefer to see each session's structure/excess areas. Hopefully that addresses your question.

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  #650 (permalink)
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Great stuff on this thread, imo.Speaking for myself, i feel like the learning process is coming right along.I still have much to learn, and that is what i intend to do.When i think about how long i have been simulating, its a bit frustrating,tho.The last time i pulled the cash, i told myself that i wasnt going to risk $ until i was con sistent in sim.After trying many many indicators, and methods, i stumbled on this type of trading and immediately thought that this was the way.However, as is always the case, for me...it takes time...sometimes i have thoughts like,"if i was just a bit smarter"or"im not the sharpest fella,luckily i can focus on the long term goal",and other various things like that.Im not being critical,just honest.Each day is a puzzle, and some times i see it correctly, sometimes not.I try to see the extremes, and find the confluence.

With all that said,i do feel lately, that the charts are slowing down,which indicates my focus is getting better.Looking at specific levels, that the homework brings forth.With so much going on here with my family,being very busy, i am grateful that i can do my 2 hours off the open, and review the comments in this thread to continue the process of learning how to correctly trade the cl

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