So monday morning

No major news out......

My 3 hypothesis

I have been looking at the last 3 trading profiles combined

Attachment 98784

I have also been looking at the bracket we are in TPO compostie and longer term Volume composite

Since we had the break out rally and the gap up on the 31/12/2012 we have just been rotating in a high volume area

Attachment 98785good analysis Ryan...curious to see the 4 day profile now....
We have a "p" shaped profile for today,and it seems like the 93 area is indeed a magnet

Here is the high volume areas on a volomue composite since roughy 21/02/2012

Attachment 98786

as you can see we had a high voulme bracket below @87.50 to 84.80

we broke up in a up trend and rallyed up to the next high vloume area

We have a break out level ahead of us @ 94.56 which will act as over head support and the high of the TPO composite

we are clearly in a bull market at the moment

Attachment 98787

The longer term picture shows we are right in the middle though, at the higher end of a bracket

Attachment 98788

I expect to see a test of the 94.56 break out level this week...weather we will see a break to the upside or not is another thing

1. So today my plan is to buy the lows of the 3day composite looking for rotations back up into value above

2. If we fail to hold the 3 day value area i will look for a break out to the next area below $92

some great posts today...good to see PB back!Having scrambled eggs and a beer for dinner....wahooooo!

Now that the New Year is underway I thought I'd add what I'm looking at from a bigger picture perspective to see where we stand from a higher time frame/directional bias.

The first thing I wanted to point out which is where the Oil Vix is currently. We appear to be at or around the lows that were present back in April '12 when the market was at its swing high and well within the $100 range. I realize we are not over the key $100 psychological level but aren't too far away.

Weekly Oil Vix



Daily Oil Vix



Looking at the Monthly chart, we can see that we are still trading within a bracket. We tested the high, then the low and now making a run back to the high again.



If you look at the daily chart, you can see that we are still trading within two price channels and are just about at the top end of the current bearish channel that has served as significant resistance in the recent past.



Also viewable on the daily chart are multiple small gaps below the market. They aren't huge dislocations and you would think they get filled here soon. A fill of one could set off a domino effect and see a large move down.



Looking at the moving averages and MACD, we can see that the market finally broke above the 200 EMA and has been balancing there for the last four days. The MACD averages are now well above the zero line which is bullish and will need to be watched closely for potential overbought levels.



Looking at the TPO brackets/balance areas, the market has been establishing four day balance areas so far. Not sure there's anything to that number but interesting. The current swing high established some nice excess which will need to be watched. Could be a high of this move up but I wouldn't dare call a top. You just never know what news may come here.



Looking at the TPO migration and volume from a weekly perspective, we can see that the market has been one time framing higher with price continuing to auction higher on a larger scale. Today's price action remained within the upper TPO and volume distribution from last week.



And lastly, a look at the larger scale VWAP levels with the weekly VWAP consolidating within last week's value so far while the monthly VWAP close is far below (stretched) from this month's open. The market would have a lot of work to come back down to tag last month's VWAP but certainly possible.





I would think we'd get a pullback and close out some of these gaps below but the market just keeps pushing higher on these balance breakouts. Given the price level and structure in which we're trading at, I'm pretty neutral with regards to where I think the market will head next. Of course, intra-day trading will always be neutral but that's a bit more myopic.