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Hey guys, I don't post much here as I'm still working on getting consistent in my methodology, and don't want to be the guy that only posts his winner, but thanks to what I've been learning/seeing thanks to this thread here is what I did this am:
I did take some 2 lot scalps and was slightly down on the day as everytime we made a low, it wasn't by much so I was getting whipsawed by only having a few ticks profit then a reversal.
Looking at the delta on both the 5 min and 1500 tick, everytime we made a low the red was less and less deeper. Also what I noticed was the final bottom (as of now) was at the lower end of one yesterdays high volume areas as well as the speed in which price came off of the low.
What I want to highlight is that by the time my entry method gave me a signal, we were farther off the lows than I wanted to risk, so only did a one lot. That being said, i did have 2:1 reward to risk and took profits at the lower end of the overnight consolidation which also was just below the previous close and current vwap.
Right I have distanced myself from futures.io (formerly BMT) lately, due to the need to focus on my career etc
Though i would try and fill @Private Bankers shoes and do some top down analysis for you
You guys should do this too in your own way, it helps a lot to understand the bigger picture time frames and market sentiment
Right or wrong......here is my view at the moment
FROM THE TOP
Monthly
On the monthly we seem to be in major consollodation with a distinct trading range bracket
We have a wedge in side a wedge and there seems to be no major directional conviction
Weekley
Again zoomed in on the weekly you can see a bit more detail, a more clear price wedge with clear consollodation
I can also see two clear balance area inside the major bracket we are in
Daily levels and MA`s
Again a more detailed picture, you can see the major price wedge which is also from a bull and a bear channel you cannot see as its not zoomed out enough.....buy you get the idea of the consollodation we are in
We have excess lows and highs i have also market which are important levels on the daily chart
Finally......look at the cluster on MA`s we have at the moment. The MA`s have really been stuck in the mud this year with no direction in play so far. The clear price bracket we have in play I have also highlighted
Daily gaps and excess
On this picture you can see the 2 clear balance areas from the weekly picture with a clear low volume area in the middle of the price wedge
At the moment we have 2 clear unfilled gaps above and below the price wedge were the sellers and buyers have acted agressively at the highs and lows of this current market
I have also highlighted the major extremes we have in place with nice excess to work with @ $103 and $87
Again all we can see is no over all direction and consollodation of price in the wedge
So last but not least the current developing values
I've not been doing this long enough to really comment on this, but to me we have a funny situation here. Unless you understand vwap you will find it hard to understand what i mean
The last 2 developing values from Feb and March are over lapping and i have highlighted the over lap in value
All this means from my view is the sellers and the buyers from the highs and lows have clashed with positions and views. I suppose this happens a lot in major price consollodation
At the moment we seemed to find buyers below March vwap were we found support at Febs vwap lows, now we have popped above this level and have found support in the over lapping values in the highlighted green zone
Week Vwap`s
On the weekly vwap, from last weeks sell off we found support at the lows of last weeks value this week and we just tested last week vwap today
Could be interesting were we go from here
So from all this, i still dont have a clue where crude oil is going tomorrow
But we can understand the over bigger pricture allowing us to get a grip the on longer term time frames
All i can see is we are in major balance and untill we break out of this big bracket and wedge
Sell the highs and buy the lows
Simple trading
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
