Not for high percentage wins exactly, but for high reward to risk.
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This is what the area looked like in Market Profile.
No different than any other buying tail to me in my entire 2 weeks of study. But I am curious if you took odds of risk versus reward on Market Profile study, and integrated odds on time bar structure, and especially added risk to reward, ( not that it is a "system", but just to know.)
The POC has not risen above a prior... The VAH 24h is below the VAL... And still I am intrigued with buying this area. Purely, from the 1 in, "whatever", chance that this is it. It's that kind of place. It may fail just like many do.
But it is one of the few signposts of this size you get in a 12 month period.
So I am gawking.
Last edited by GaryD; March 4th, 2013 at 08:55 PM.
Yes, yes, and yes. There are many examples of this type of view in the spoo thread, just posted one yesterday from a weekly perspective in fact. Particularly as the market has an actual close at the end of the week, I find it interesting to do a weekly analysis. And a yearly analysis is working great for equities right now; however, it might not be so helpful if January breaks out and then February trades back into December's range, for example.
This is good if you want to do a time-based comparison, but often the most valuable insights come from combining profiles that are overlapping, for example 2/21 to 2/28 in CL.
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1) Effective in showing structure, most traded prices. I use it on a daily and larger basis; does not much good to go smaller than that for me.
2) Effective in confirming the average traded price, and the shape of the curve and how the market reacts to it can be helpful. I only care about RTH VWAP, and I start it at the session open.
3) Useless to me personally, in the sense of support and resistance anyway. It is helpful to know whether the IB is relatively large or small, as this can help to identify the unfolding day type. But some people use it as reference points later in the day; personally, at 1pm I do not care what the high was at 10:00am or 10:30am, as it is a relatively arbitrary period of time. Furthermore, is one hour a good period of time for the IB in a market like soybeans which trades only 4.5 hours? Too arbitrary for me.
4) I keep it up and behind my main entry chart as a way to quickly see actual volume numbers in recent activity (as opposed to the volume numbers I have on my main profile on my DOM, which includes cumulative volume for the whole day instead of the last X minutes or range). This is one of my least used tools, but sometimes it can come in handy.
5) Delta -- useful to determine dominant sentiment (not to be used blindly as a "signal" IMO)
6) NYSE TICK -- " " for equities only of course
I particularly like (1), (2), (5), and (6) as I use them on a session and they are the same regardless of whether I view the market in 5 minute or 3000 volume bars.
I think of all of these as simply tools. They are each effective at conveying information that they are intended to convey. The usefulness (or uselessness) is determined by the trader who uses them. We all see the same profile, the same VWAP, etc., but it's how we interpret and use this information that makes the tool valuable or not.
The following 3 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
1. footprint: with range charts. I want to see a new bar because of price change and not because a certain time has elapsed or certain volume or ticks are reached. very effective, you'll see at important levels if there's no interest at all or lots of interest but no follow through.
2. vwap: same value for different time frames. very effective. important tool for participants who can move the markets.
3. market profile: same value for different time frames. still effective because many traders are using it. but only a matter of time till they'll adapt to the "new tools".
4. initial balance: same value for different time frames. kind of effective. can give you a hint: narrow ib can lead to a breakout later, wide ib chance of staying inside ib all day.
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