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Today I was wondering this question when I saw the ES (3min) drop like a hot potato at an 89 SMA, stop dead on its tracks at early morning support @1424, respect resistance @ 1428.25. While COMP appeared to be following with no noticeable hindrances at the same levels.
If your question had a definitive answer, risk-free arbitrage would be possible and the market would not function.
In other words, it depends. They are each a basket of stocks, and it depends on the basket and on how arbitrageurs operate at any given time.
Today NQ (not COMP as I do not watch the cash) was quite a bit stronger and was making new highs before ES did its stop run. In this case, NQ led. later in the day it made another run while ES did not budge. It "led" but the ES did not follow.
I bet over the long haul that just about every indicator is right 50% of the time, and wrong 50% of the time. At least, that is what I have seen testing many, many indicators.
@Joseph689, here are a few charts that show which was the dog and which was the tail, at least today.
The ES is in the top panel, and the Nasdaq COMP in the lower panel of each chart.
So do look at them, assuming you are able to take your eyes off of my stunning necktie.
Unfortunately I am unable to offer the necktie for sale as that would require my status to be changed to Vendor.
"If we don't loosen up some money, this sucker is going down." -GW Bush, 2008
“Lack of proof that something is true does not prove that it is not true - when you want to believe.” -Humpty Dumpty, 2014
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Prof. Albert Bartlett
(This update version use the same 'old' file names for simple replace... please redownload and confirm the overwrite, if loaded before 1.4.2012)
changelog:
2012 Apr 1. -> update "t4tMultiSym13" on chart/dialog of NT7
2012 Mar 17. -> initial "t4tMultiSym12" …
Now how about that snappy necktie!
By the way, shouldn't the title of this thread be whom leads who? whom leads who'm? who's on first®? I feel badly until I no that this is rite, and I will loose sleep over it.
Just one more thing. Watch the Mark Douglas videos on YouTube. Some of the best trading advice you will ever get.
"If we don't loosen up some money, this sucker is going down." -GW Bush, 2008
“Lack of proof that something is true does not prove that it is not true - when you want to believe.” -Humpty Dumpty, 2014
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Prof. Albert Bartlett
I thought I had stumbled upon some undiscovered knowledge here! 
