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How many contracts can you trade before affecting market in CL and GC markets?
What was your max drawdown last year?
What was your percentage of winning trades? Percentage of losing trades?
Amount of average winning trade? Amount of average losing trade?
And total number of trades?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I'm not saying 300% isn't possible, people have done it. It's just very rare and I'd expect someone pondering the question to have already had a good understanding of how the market is impacted after having so much success.
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
The above is the proper response to this issue. Debating whether a poster's claim is truthful, doubtful, embellished, or otherwise is an utter waste of time. Struggling traders tend to believe, since they can't do it, then no one else can either. It's pure rationalization. Why should you care what other traders think, as long as that method is putting money in your wallet? Let them debate your claim till they are blue in the face. Maybe if they were open minded enough to venture beyond the standing trading status quo, maybe they'd be making 300% too. I've seen and had too many of these debates, I've stopped participating in discussions of strategy, trading approach, and posting charts for this very reason.
Sometimes I wonder what if lets say a billionaire goes insane and decides to do something drastic. lets say he's going to kill himself and he wants to just unleash his frustration on the CL. So he just takes his few billion dollars and decides to buy oil in arbitrary numbers of contracts between 100-1000 increments from all his different brokers he has accounts with. Lets say he just sat there buying and buying all day endlessly with the CL. I honestly don't know if he'd move the market very far considering algorithms picking up on this activity solely on CL. Even if he spreads this money out on other related instruments I still think he'd lose out if there wasn't any macro economic related reason CL should increase in price. I don't believe the flash crash would have occurred with ES if it wasn't for coincidental external conditions despite the billions of dollars of selling that occurred.
R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
And really, you need to know the max drawdown over the same period that returns are quoted (so, you really need the max drawdown in the past 3 years). Then, annual % return / max drawdown % = MAR ratio, which is a great metric to compare strategies.
A simple way to determine the authenticity of a trading method is to see if it shows relationship between wins and drawdown. Every trading system either sacrifices wins in order to take lower drawdown, or accepts higher drawdown in order to improve the win ratio.
Simply put: you take greater risk in order to achieve greater reward, and the results of the trading system will show this.
