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How many contracts can you trade before affecting market in CL and GC markets?
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How many contracts can you trade before affecting market in CL and GC markets?

  #41 (permalink)
Sunnyvale, CA
 
 
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pepelucho View Post
I'm not interested in trading anyone's money, and if I were, I already have plenty of friends/family lined up.
But here's proof anyway, 36 month chart...

What was your max drawdown last year?
What was your percentage of winning trades? Percentage of losing trades?
Amount of average winning trade? Amount of average losing trade?
And total number of trades?


Last edited by mwtzzz; January 19th, 2013 at 02:09 PM.
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  #42 (permalink)
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I'm not saying 300% isn't possible, people have done it. It's just very rare and I'd expect someone pondering the question to have already had a good understanding of how the market is impacted after having so much success.

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  #43 (permalink)
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Fadi View Post
You will then become a millionaire in a heartbeat
Congrats!


The above is the proper response to this issue. Debating whether a poster's claim is truthful, doubtful, embellished, or otherwise is an utter waste of time. Struggling traders tend to believe, since they can't do it, then no one else can either. It's pure rationalization. Why should you care what other traders think, as long as that method is putting money in your wallet? Let them debate your claim till they are blue in the face. Maybe if they were open minded enough to venture beyond the standing trading status quo, maybe they'd be making 300% too. I've seen and had too many of these debates, I've stopped participating in discussions of strategy, trading approach, and posting charts for this very reason.

I say, 300% ??? .... Awesome... Congrats!


Last edited by monpere; January 19th, 2013 at 10:51 PM.
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  #44 (permalink)
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mwtzzz View Post
What was your max drawdown last year?
What was your percentage of winning trades? Percentage of losing trades?
Amount of average winning trade? Amount of average losing trade?
And total number of trades?

Even if he did share this info, which I highly doubt, what would either of you gain from this?

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  #45 (permalink)
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Sometimes I wonder what if lets say a billionaire goes insane and decides to do something drastic. lets say he's going to kill himself and he wants to just unleash his frustration on the CL. So he just takes his few billion dollars and decides to buy oil in arbitrary numbers of contracts between 100-1000 increments from all his different brokers he has accounts with. Lets say he just sat there buying and buying all day endlessly with the CL. I honestly don't know if he'd move the market very far considering algorithms picking up on this activity solely on CL. Even if he spreads this money out on other related instruments I still think he'd lose out if there wasn't any macro economic related reason CL should increase in price. I don't believe the flash crash would have occurred with ES if it wasn't for coincidental external conditions despite the billions of dollars of selling that occurred.

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  #46 (permalink)
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mongoose View Post
Even if he did share this info, which I highly doubt, what would either of you gain from this?

The point is that you can't talk about ROI without talking about drawdown.

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  #47 (permalink)
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mwtzzz View Post
The point is that you can't talk about ROI without talking about drawdown.

And really, you need to know the max drawdown over the same period that returns are quoted (so, you really need the max drawdown in the past 3 years). Then, annual % return / max drawdown % = MAR ratio, which is a great metric to compare strategies.

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  #48 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
And really, you need to know the max drawdown over the same period that returns are quoted (so, you really need the max drawdown in the past 3 years). Then, annual % return / max drawdown % = MAR ratio, which is a great metric to compare strategies.

Definitely.

A simple way to determine the authenticity of a trading method is to see if it shows relationship between wins and drawdown. Every trading system either sacrifices wins in order to take lower drawdown, or accepts higher drawdown in order to improve the win ratio.

Simply put: you take greater risk in order to achieve greater reward, and the results of the trading system will show this.

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  #49 (permalink)
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Itchymoku View Post
Unless you're a millionaire there is no need to worry about this

A millionaire just ain't what it used to be ha ha. Most middle class folk near retirement have a net worth of a million.

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  #50 (permalink)
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pepelucho View Post
I disagree, I have a strategy that on average takes 30 to 40 ticks of profit or 15 ticks of loss, and trades about 1 to 3 times a day, which generates 300% per year, and I do worry about what will happen as I start increasing number of contracts.

and I'm not a millionaire...

If you start increasing the number of contracts, people will come after the liquidity of your stops with 15 ticks.

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