I have been following /CL oil in the commodities sector. And there is a pattern which repeats from day to day at a very high % by manually counting the days. This patter seems much more prevalent in the commodities specifically in oil. On a down day let’s say on 9/17 of this year or any day for that matter the following day retraces 1/4 or more back up the body of the previous day’s candle, the same with the next and the next. This goes for both up and down days where the candle has a defined body not a doji or hanging man. I can’t be the first to have noticed this and I have made several successful trades in this way recently but am having issues with getting stopped out, and even on those days it still hits my original sell point if the stop wasn't as close. I would like to back it up with some historical data if this is even tradable. I have been trying to create a strategy with trade station with some success but am still very new to easy language.
So as an example on a down day buy/sell on the open on the next day and sell/buy when it reached 1/4 up or down the next days body of the candle. I can play with the stop % , and how large the move is on the day to day. The days I would buy on the next open is if the gap up or down was beyond a certain point, it’s just finding that point is difficult. Has anyone traded anything similar to this idea?
Strategies such as these tend to not have longevity even if there is an edge currently. However, it is rather simple and can be easily backtested. My recommendation would be to do 2 year in-sample backtest with another 6 month of out-sample test before you commit capital.
2 yrs on a daily strategy would give approx. 500 trades, something that can be considered statistically significant.
Best of luck!