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In your experience, when does the futures contract tend to trend?
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In your experience, when does the futures contract tend to trend?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
roselle park, nj
 
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In your experience, when does the futures contract tend to trend?

So I have been a regular reader of many valuable posts here at futures.io (formerly BMT) forum and wanted to reach out to all of you with one simple question:

In your opinion when does ES, CL and 6E tends to trend the most? And a natural answer would be it depends on a lot of factors. And I'd agree with that, and at the same time in my experience I think these instruments are like humans, they tend to behave in somewhat predictable fashion.

So, is there a time of the day when ES, CL and 6E tend to trend the most? I believe the collective input can be very valuable in selecting time-frames for many of the automated trading strategies that members of this forum use.

To start off I have seen the following trends:
ES: trends well between 5am to 8.30am ET and 10am to 12.30am
CL: 9.30am ET to 12in the noon
6E: no clue, this is still a mystery. I found it difficult to identify any good trending times.

So, here is the question: What does you experience suggest?

Any thoughts, comments, reaction?
Thanks

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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It's all relative.

So far this year, the ES has the best trend of them all.

Are you swing trading? How many days are you holding a position? I ask to better understand why you place a lot of importance on trending?

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  #4 (permalink)
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roselle park, nj
 
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Thank you Mike. I am swing trading but would also like to gain some understanding on how the other members of the forum capture shorter term daily trends. And if there are certain times of the days when the markets are more likely to trend it is better to use that time frame to minimize the risk of a choppy market.

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  #5 (permalink)
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my 2 cents

Hi,
I trade CL and i have noticed there can be some good moves just before the contract changes and afterwards.
So you can start to look for possible exits on Tuesday before the switch and a rally into the next contract and then they can take profit and run it down. There are better days than others: Tues and Thursday can be great days to trade depending if it is in a wedge, bear or bull channel. Also CL can have some nice action prior to the open, depending on what is going on: it can rally from 8:30AM EST, open can trend but can also be in chop, can find a base around 9:30 or 10AM, 10-11Am can be chop. THere can be a possible rally into the european close which can happen around 11, 11:15 etc. Sometimes there is a move around 2PM or so. I like to see if big money has come in at the end of the session, which can cause a nice globex move. Each day is different, finding a commodities personality is important. Put in your time, getting to know it.
Somedays, CL moves big and other days, best to just go for 15 ticks which can add up nicely.
Good luck, Rachel


Last edited by Rachel; March 23rd, 2012 at 06:37 PM. Reason: Just saw you are a swing trader, CL can rally from Feb into April, do the pitchfork set up on larger time frame for trends.
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  #6 (permalink)
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pandyav View Post
Thank you Mike. I am swing trading but would also like to gain some understanding on how the other members of the forum capture shorter term daily trends. And if there are certain times of the days when the markets are more likely to trend it is better to use that time frame to minimize the risk of a choppy market.

Just keep in mind it's all relative.

A trader using a tiny 6 range chart might define a trend as price moving up over the last hour.

A swing trader might define a trend as pricing moving up over the last month.

That is an enormous difference....

Interestingly enough, I started a thread to try and define using hindsight analysis what most of us can agree on as a trending day:
https://futures.io/traders-hideout/18751-definition-trending-day.html

Mike

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  #7 (permalink)
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In regards to the 6E when I was CJBooth's room,. we started at the london open which was 3am EST. then we expect more trending moves as the Asian session was closing. Then at 5:30am to about 6:00am we would take a break as it was supposed to be lunchtime for the london session. Then resuming 6-9 or 10am Est. Unless the NYSE showed some movement, our session would usually be over 1 hr after the NYSE open. But sometimes CJ would stick around especially if there was some news to move the 6E during the NYSE. so we were the nightowl traders especially those of us on the West coast abouts


(however the volume has been sickly no doubt with the unease over the ongoing euro crisis)

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  #8 (permalink)
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South Bend, Indiana
 
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In my world, the ES is the cocaine of day traders. You know you shouldn't use it, but the excitement draws you in and you get hooked. I went thru an eight step program for withdrawal. OK, just kidding but too close to the truth.

I've heard from several sources that Goldman controls over 50% of the ES volume, so they push it where they want and move it when they want. Typically, I find that's between 10am and 11:30 EST. They're REAL good at running stops and reversing. On big news days, small guys are trying to pick each other's pockets so the market just floats until the legal lies are spewed out.

If you're day trading, watch 5 or 10 minute volume. Lets you know if the commercials are in the game and are interested. It seems most days, the euro session runs it one direction and the US session counters and wipes that out. If you did nothing but fade the European session you'd probably make money most of the time.

As noted, CL seems to come alive pre-pit session and continue until mid-day when the big floor traders go have a drink of lunch. I do short term on a 6 range bar and try to take 10-50 ticks per trade. Fibs seem to work pretty well even on shorter term stuff on CL

The euro is just a mess. I suspect there are a lot of BIG players (US gov't, IMF, european union) trying to keep it from going down the toilet. A big pile of money floats in and smacks it around without apparent rhyme or reason. Eventually, the PIGS are gonna suck it down.

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