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Just watched a video from Gann Global yesterday. IIRC, they're expecting a quick move down to hit the stops, then a run higher. Bonds were supposed to run up over the recent highs just enough to finish forming a bear pattern, which is happening He's looking for a 20 month decline in ZB down to maybe the 110 area. Gann Global is all kinds of crazy over this one.
Supposedly silver typically is the leader in the metals. Silver is kinda the blue collar metal. Gold is the exotic. Gold has been hit a little, but silver is pretty much holding it's own. Should lead the run up.
I expect significant inflation to hit sometime in the near future. You can't print the massive amount of money every economy has and still keep inflation low. It isn't that metals are worth more, it's that the dollar is worth less (or worthless)
If you've been thinking about re-financing your home, I'd get on it ASAP. Bonds should peak and interest rates bottom April 19 to 29th. That's the 60 year cycle.
Lots of incredibly negative sentiment on gold/silver prices. Here are a few charts on silver if I could lump them in pointing to two very different outcomes.
1. On the point and figure chart we are looking at a triple support break down or support.
2. The price channel could put it at 14 to 22 bucks..
Or
3. We just hit a 4+ year support trend line, the year long descending triangle could break upwards, making current price near the bottom of forming the second shoulder of an inverse H&S
i would suggest looking at Gold in "currency-neutral" terms, ie. averaged against the majors (it's not perfect, but I use an equal weight of USD, EUR, JPY, GBP - no more CHF as it is now pegged..). It tells a much different story from Gold futures in that the past year seems completely lethargic. My thinking is that Gold has been in a sneaky bear market over this time period (peaking in summer 2011) that the general public has not accepted. It is certainly putting up a big fight ahead of support, but the liquidation potential is massive. Sentiment indicators have not even approached bearish. This is the stuff that great trades are made of.
The question is, when is all this stimulus going to work its way into the economy? All this QE isn't inflationary untill it gets moved from off the bank's balance sheets, and loaned out to the public. It's not a question of if, but when. $2k gold will look cheap.
