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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #851 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 624 given, 2,445 received

Trade system explained

Recap of my current trading system: part 1
Trading three instruments. GC, CL and YM. I have been watching Ym for a while and trading it on SIM for about four months. Now I'm trading it live. Although the point value is only $5 , this gives some advantages. For example a 20 tick stop would only be a loss of $100 per contract. 20 tick targets are easily reached as well. I find when there is good momentum, it moves in a much more linear fashion compared to Crude's Twists and turns. So far, I am doing well with it.

Gold is something I don't trade often, but there are moments when it moves well. I keep my eye on it and always move my little audible price alerts to areas of interest in case I am focused on another instrument. I basically only trade it when it really starts to take off. It often reacts strongly to economic news events.

Unfortunately, Crude..in my opinion doesn't move, on average, like it did in the past. A quick glance at charts from the previous four years or so will easily verify that. It still has it's days (like we have seen recently), but on average I am finding it much more difficult to sustain myself from only trading Crude..like I used to.

So, now before I trade each morning, I identify all relevant support/resistance levels. I examine the overnight activity , look at high time frames for a macro trend . I then go down to my smaller frames , looking for various swing highs and lows and smaller micro areas of price congestion and s/r areas. These small areas can have a profound effect on price action ..along with causing price to bounce. I map these out carefully.

Then I put together my prospective Battle Plan. These are anticipated setups and possible trade areas. These are events, that if they occur, I will need to make a decision whether to take a trade or pass. I, of course, also leave open the possibility of "real time" unplanned setups forming as well.
End of part 1

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  #852 (permalink)
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Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
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Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
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Trade system part 2

Now, as I mentioned in posts in the past, I suspect that I have some issues with prolonged time periods of focus. I like to really be in tune..so to speak ..with an instrument's immediate market conditions at all times. I find my brain, when properly tuned in, is a very good "indicator." From watching market action several hours a day, on virtually the same chart setup..for the past several years or so..I have developed a very good "feel" for price movement. I also have acquired an astute ability to recognize predictable patterns. However, it is hard to silently maintain this type of intense focus for several hours in a row.

To aid in my focus, I constantly do a verbal narration of what the various instruments are doing at all times. I will comment on how much volatility is currently occurring and do a series of "what if" scenarios. For example, I am saying things like "If oil fails at this area, forms my setup pattern ..would this be a trade I want? This verbal commentary gives me the ability to stay tuned into what price is doing at any given moment.
Then, before taking a trade, I ask myself, "Ok..Why not?" So I quickly glance at my checklist to see if there are adverse reasons not to take the trade. Perhaps, there is an overall lack of momentum, or I'm up against a Magnet line s/r level..or I might need to have too large of a stoploss. Maybe there has been chaotic price action, it's a bad time of the day (like 12pm est)..or price is in a cosolidation pattern.

So, if everything checks out, my charts and indicators are giving me good signals etc..then I will take the trade.

In the next part, I will write about managing trades.

End of part 2

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  #853 (permalink)
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Hi Lance,

Excellent analysis as always!

Have you monitored NQ (nasdaq futures)? If so, how do you compare with YM?

I find NQ to be more volatile than YM.

Also, NG (natural gas) can be a good candidate, it moves more predictablly than CL, in my opinion.

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  #854 (permalink)
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wshi88 View Post
Hi Lance,

Excellent analysis as always!

Have you monitored NQ (nasdaq futures)? If so, how do you compare with YM?

I find NQ to be more volatile than YM.

Also, NG (natural gas) can be a good candidate, it moves more predictablly than CL, in my opinion.

Thanks for your comments. I remember your contributions to this thread in the past and I appreciate your interaction. I haven't really looked at natural Gas. I have traded NQ a few years ago, mostly on SIM. It seemed like it had good volatility, but for some reason I didn't do that well on it. I did several posts about it in this thread. However, I think I will start possibly watching it again. If I do, I will watch it instead of gold during the 9:30 am est equity session. I don't like to watch more than two or three different instruments at once. Perhaps I will just watch the GC between 8:30 and 9:30..(First hour of it's US pit open) and then switch to NQ at 9:30.
You may have given me a good idea.:
Thanks. How is everything with you?

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  #855 (permalink)
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

Thanks for your sharing as CL lately is different beast

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  #856 (permalink)
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Traded NQ live for first time in several years!

Recap of today. Thanks to wshi88. I watched NQ along with CL and YM.


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  #857 (permalink)
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logicals fx


lancelottrader View Post
Recap of today. Thanks to wshi88. I watched NQ along with CL and YM.


Theres a lot to like about the Logical FX package. I still don't quite understand exactly what you look for as to entry methos other than W's? could you go in to that a bit if you want to share

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  #858 (permalink)
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stifland View Post
Theres a lot to like about the Logical FX package. I still don't quite understand exactly what you look for as to entry methos other than W's? could you go in to that a bit if you want to share

I have made a few videos and posts that go into specific entry criteria, and will make another in the near future. Basically, the entries are mainly price action patterns that are fairly common , although the context, momentum and overall market conditions are extremely important.
In a market with some directional, trending volatility..I look for pullbacks to either former swing areas or failed reversals through micro or macro support and resistance levels. Then a re-entry into the trend. This can of course be done with a variety of charting styles. I just happen to like the Logical Forex because I have watched it for many years..and I can quickly identify what type of immediate conditions the market is in. I like Tick Strike as well for order flow confirmation.

Often the pullbacks on my charts ..if going long can form a V shape or a W shape. If going short, the pattern will resemble an A or an M. Without the right amount of strong momentum though, these patterns don't mean much. These patterns will look different on candle charts or renko bars, but the same thing can be accomplished.

Other setups would include some consolidation breakouts and sometimes something I call a "Power Move" which is a sudden surge in price that happens almost spontaneously. My charts help me see those moves in real time.. In fact, a small one happened on CL today around 10:15 am est and I was able to immediately take an entry and get a decent 10 tick scalp. The trade only lasted a few seconds.

That's it basically. And although, it's very simplistic..I will only take trades when several factors line up.. As I mentioned a few posts ago, I have a checklist I quickly scan before entry.

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  #859 (permalink)
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Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
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Recap from today's session with live recorded trades. Did fairly well, but didn't take full advantage of the big move down in equities.



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  #860 (permalink)
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Hey Lance


One comment on the MM. i notice you always kind of go all, all out compared to a 2 target approach. So question would be , how would you know when to go for 10 or 20 versus using the spine runner? Maybe would be good to have T1 and a runner. You mentioned you had an atm to approximate the spinr runner so wondering if you could show atm setup for that and i may experiment with it, thanks. B

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