I wanted to take a moment and acknowledge my appreciation for this forum. I think what Big Mike has put together here is an invaluable resource in terms of information and also I am thankful for many of the great people I have interacted with on here.
There have been several individuals who have selflessly offered their knowledge and time to try and help others along the way. I would name you, but I wouldn't want to accidentally leave anyone out. I have learned many things on here that have helped me progress as a trader and again I want to say thanks to Big Mike and everything he has done on here with Futures.io.
Yes, sometimes there are those people that you spend your time trying to help..explaining things in Private Messages..even making videos for..that obviously don't appreciate the effort..but in the end, it's all worth it. That's what "Paying it forward" means. On the other hand, when you have someone tell you, "My trading has really improved..and I owe it to you because of the things you showed me"...Well, that's a nice feeling.
Failure is not an option
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Through this point in your trading career, do you ever get Fear Of Missing Out in CL or other markets, especially when moves are so fast/volatile, and enter positions when your indicators are *almost* signalling a move, but not quite? I use a system similar to yours, but the psych-side of trading still gets me when trying to get into positions for a move.
Maybe it's my internet connection doing the psyching-out, heh (20M down, 10M up).
Last edited by ClutchAce; May 2nd, 2016 at 12:21 PM.
Hi..Sorry for the late response. I just got back from a trip to New Mexico. Yes, I used to have the problem of worrying about missing a move. The market can be a constant source of temptation and it's hard to remain patient when it appears something is taking off and you're not on board.
I don't have as much of a problem with that now, because every trade has to fit a certain criteria or I don't enter. If I am wrong and it takes off without me, I don't feel any anger or frustration at all. What upsets me is when I jump into trades that are spontaneous or impulsive. I rarely do that these days, either. Some traders do things differently. They don't need much criteria to enter. They jump in..if it goes their way, they add on more contracts. If it goes against them, they may take 50 ticks of heat. That's not how I trade though.
I have always been a big believer in learning by spending hours of observation. I have watched Crude Oil for over 5 years in a row on a fairly similar chart setup, all along. This has given me a consistent frame of reference as opposed to those who change their charts on a weekly basis..and feel like they have found their Holy Grail because they had a few strong volatile days in a row. When conditions change (things get choppy), they switch to a new setup..and it goes on forever.
I have a different approach than most. I try to get in sync with what the market is doing at all times while I am actively trading. From my years of observation and watching my recorded trading sessions, I have found those moments that repeat themselves on a consistent basis. There are conditions that show up..that I have seen so many times..that it is fairly easy to tell (at least for a few minutes) what price is likely to do.
So, when I have a potential setup appearing, I do a quick checklist. If several adverse conditions are present, I will probably avoid the trade. Also, every 5 to 10 minutes I do an update. I will jot on a pad how price is moving, what type of conditions I am seeing, potential setups..how my emotional and cognitive processes are at that moment. I want to totally be in tune with the market at all times. This is one of the reasons I rarely post while I am trading anymore. I find it difficult to be "One" with the market..and do things like typing on a forum at the same time.
To me, the immediate market conditions are the main reason a setup wins or fails..and the more I am focused on those moment to moment conditions..the less losing trades I take. Yes, this is way different than just "fading the VWAP or high of day..etc." My goal is to wait for those moments that I have seen 1000's of time (and they usually involve strong, immediate momentum)and trade only at those times. I want to eliminate as much randomness as possible. I have 3 main setups, but I know the conditions those setups work best in..so I wait for them to appear.
This eliminates worrying about missing a move.
Failure is not an option
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Firstly I'd like to say thank you and how much I appreciate you putting in the effort of creating, and posting in this thread. I just finished reading the majority of it (started reading the posts from around 2012-2013) and there is a lot of useful information throughout.
I had a few questions after reading, and if the answer was already discussed earlier than I had began reading then please tell me and I will go back and read the beginning of the thread as well.
The main reason I began reading the thread was in order to get a better understanding of how people say they "feel" the price action. I assume this is acquired through years of screentime, but is there anything you could describe that I could watch for? In another thread on this site, I believe it was Peter Davies who mentioned a 'drill' where you watch the market orders coming in on your DOM and will pick up on certain things after doing this for multiple hours.
Do you watch for this price action on the DOM? Watching for bigger market orders to come in, pushing the market in a certain direction? Waiting for weak selling or weak buying in order to take the opposite position?
Basically what I'm trying to figure out is what sort of indication you see that says "buy" or "sell" confirming that there may be a quick move in either direction.
I apologize if these questions don't make much sense, as I'm struggling to put my thoughts into words, but either way, I greatly appreciate all you've done in this thread.
Hi. One of the big differences between my trading now and in the early parts of my journal has been the incorporation of order flow. Before that, I was often able to ascertain the strength of a move mainly by observation. My 2 range line chart would take on a particular look and movement. I wasn't able to get the same "Feel" from candlecharts. This was simply a matter of noticing through observation (and reviewing recorded sessions) and correlation between the movement, speed etc. of the 2 range chart and the distance price would travel in a given period of time. I could generally tell very quickly on.. when that imbalance of order flow would occur and the buyers or sellers would start to come in. However, I also found that CL could produce these seemingly random spikes..which I would jump into that had no follow through. Even worse, they would suddenly reverse and move sharply the opposite way. I nicknamed those moves, "Spikefoolery." lol
Then I started using an indicator called Tick Strike which has a visual and audible meter that sounds loudly and lights up bars..according to strength of order flow. I found it to be helpful and I also incorporated volume charts set to small time frames like 10 second charts. So between the tick strike and the volume charts plus price action setups, I started seeing more consistency. And as I have mentioned frequently in this thread, keeping myself "in the moment" by doing a verbal. constant commentary of what I am perceiving (in real time) price to be doing. Is it making little jolts..and then going no where?..Is it failing off of every small pocket of price congestion? Is price moving with authority and speed?..or is it just bouncing around? Am I detecting any changes in overall order flow and movement? What is the Macro trend? Is there a microtrend within the macrotrend? Is there a pullback on a larger timeframe..or perhaps a pullback on an immediate momentum move? Where do I think many traders have entered? Where are their stops? What happens if those stops get taken out and tons of volume comes in?
So between my moment to moment observations using a variety of time frames, my Tick strike and volume charts ..and my constant use of "what if" scenarios, I am always ready when those opportunities occur.
Failure is not an option
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Awesome, thank you very much for the detailed response. I really appreciate it. I opened up a 2range chart and a 10 second chart with volume on the bottom for todays session and just watched and tried to make notes of what was going on. I found the 10 second chart helped quite a bit, while I'm still trying to figure out the 2 range chart. I also like the thought of narrorating verbally what was going on while I was watching as it kept me focussed the whole time.
Although I'm just demoing currently trying to figure out the price action, I was finding some good success on NQ today as that was my main market I've focussed on. I realize demoing is nothing like trading live but I'd prefer to understand the price action and get rid of all the kinks before jumping in live with this stuff. I haven't traded CL as much, but I'm looking into it now.
My trading style consists of volume profile (low volume nodes), support/resistance while I'm currently trying to add price action confirmation which helped today.
Once again, thanks very much and I hope you have a great weekend!
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Honestly, my use of the UniRenko has been very recent. It has been more experimental than anything else. I tried it and liked the way it smoothed price movement to some degree. I watch it in conjunction with my 2 range line chart, 1 minute and 5 minute candlecharts. I will probably have more feedback after another month of use.
Thanks for your nice words.
Failure is not an option
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