Once again my 1 minute rampage chart keeps you in for a long ride. I am starting to correlate the type of conditions where it makes sense to manage my trade on a chart like this. My screen/ trading recordings show the type of order flow and momentum that yields these type of moves.
Failure is not an option
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1/ No weekly limits on the upside however different story for the downside...
2/ This is not really a weekly limit it is rather after a big day or two very careful or no trading for the rest of the week. Careful trading day(s) is for to mitigate the "I am invincible" affect. Especially after big days one has to be very careful and keep monitoring physiological state. Usually people get complacent after a series of wins and that is when the market will humble anyone. And yes I have personal experience on this area more than once or twice.
3/ Daily goals yap...
ex. CL these days I believe over 50 ticks per contract is pushing ones luck. It just mentally dangerous to go further because additional trades usually would happen middle of the day when things are lot less predictable and a lot more games are played to pick pocket less capitalized and or novice players.
They are exceptional days when every pull back is a buy or a sell but those are usually once or twice a month at most.
4/ On the money management for losses "Fiercely protect your capital" of course.
5/ Sim, sometimes I do just to check out how the real life decision making process goes while waiting the right side of the chart to develop. However clearly one does not have the same emotional aspects as with skin in the trade.
Hope this helps,
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I have a very general question, if we exclude the "human error" I would like to know in average what % of your setups failed, and by failed I means price go 5 to 10T in the "good" direction and reverse and go more than 15T against it?
I have another general question: let's say that you enter in a trade with a strong order flow, your are now in positive territory but suddenly the order flow is quiet and the market seems to hoover around the the same level. Do you exit that trade with a small profit or do you wait to see if the move and the order flow resume latter?
R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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Honestly, I haven't calculated my percentage of failed setups lately..I have refined my entries in the last month and my win percentage has definitely improved. I do sometimes have a 15 tick hard stop, but I seldom let my trade go 15 ticks against me. However, sometimes price can take a nasty bounce and go 8 or 9 ticks against you. It doesn't mean the trade is always a loser..but I use my discretion. If I feel the order flow has shifted I will try to usually get out with a maximum of 10 ticks. Only rarely will I take a full 15 tick stopout. I almost always never take profits less than 10 ticks. I have a lot of 20 tick winners too, and sometimes 30 to 40..but those are more rare.
If I am in a trade and the order flow stops, I will usually be patient and wait. Some trades can pause for a while..go 5 ticks or so against you..and then start up again and hit your target. Of course it's always less stressful when you have a quick win, but sometimes you have to be patient. After having many months of hitting a decent amount of ticks each week, I don't get too worried while I'm in a trade. I know if I keep taking the best setups, in the right conditions, the numbers will work out. If on some days I lose 2 or 3 trades in a row, then I know either I am off or the market is acting very strangely. I will probably stop trading unless something dramatic happens and I get a good opportunity. Often it is best to just shut things down and come back the next day.
Failure is not an option
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