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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #761 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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ClutchAce View Post
Rory, I'm curious - what is your profile pic of?

Sorry to briefly detour y'all's discussion

Its Joy Division's "Unknown Pleasures" 1979 album cover (inverted colour). It was the graph from the first recorded Pulsar (not from a Fairlight CMI synth display). I own the t-shirt.


Last edited by Rory; April 18th, 2016 at 12:00 AM.
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  #762 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Once again my 1 minute rampage chart keeps you in for a long ride. I am starting to correlate the type of conditions where it makes sense to manage my trade on a chart like this. My screen/ trading recordings show the type of order flow and momentum that yields these type of moves.

Failure is not an option
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-06-16-1-min-4_19_2016-v2.jpg  
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  #763 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Different tools...same conclusion


Funny...different tools and methods, but same conclusion.

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  #764 (permalink)
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my comments


lancelottrader View Post
Like many other traders, I have often assigned myself a weekly goal and sometimes even a daily target in terms of how many ticks I want to achieve. The weekly goal was based on what I felt would be a healthy amount of profit that over time leveraging contracts would add up to a substantial income. It also was based on a number I felt was achievable on a consistent basis. What it was not based on was the result of statistical research. .
The questions that I would like to discuss are:
1. Should one try to achieve a set amount of ticks each day? Should a weekly goal be set and once achieved, should further trading for that week be halted?
2. Unless someone has taking all good setups in their daily sessions over a long period of time, do they truly know what kind of results their system produces? In other words if you get to 20 to 40 ticks in a day and decide to stop and then ignore some fantastic moves that happen later, are you depriving yourself of big days..that could possibly offset bad, losing days? I know when trading live and I'm up good on the day, there is a strong desire not to give back my wins. So, many times if I have made what I feel is a decent amount, I stop trading. But then I miss some trades that would work well.
3. For the math to add up, knowing that in all setups there is a random distribution of wins and losses, can you know what your "batting average" is if you decide to quit because you won a few trades?
Also, if you are 30 to 40 ticks down..should you quit for the day and possibly miss out on a huge winner ..because of some max daily drawdown rule..that ignores the math of random distribution of wins and losses?
4. Should,at least on SIM, if one is testing a system...take all good setups each day that occur..regardless of wins or losses..over a period of time so they have a reliable set of statistics that accurately measures their skill level?

I would be interested in reading what some others on here think about these questions.

Lancelottrader here are my thoughts:

1/ No weekly limits on the upside however different story for the downside...

2/ This is not really a weekly limit it is rather after a big day or two very careful or no trading for the rest of the week. Careful trading day(s) is for to mitigate the "I am invincible" affect. Especially after big days one has to be very careful and keep monitoring physiological state. Usually people get complacent after a series of wins and that is when the market will humble anyone. And yes I have personal experience on this area more than once or twice.

3/ Daily goals yap...
ex. CL these days I believe over 50 ticks per contract is pushing ones luck. It just mentally dangerous to go further because additional trades usually would happen middle of the day when things are lot less predictable and a lot more games are played to pick pocket less capitalized and or novice players.
They are exceptional days when every pull back is a buy or a sell but those are usually once or twice a month at most.
4/ On the money management for losses "Fiercely protect your capital" of course.

5/ Sim, sometimes I do just to check out how the real life decision making process goes while waiting the right side of the chart to develop. However clearly one does not have the same emotional aspects as with skin in the trade.

Hope this helps,

atata

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  #765 (permalink)
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atata View Post
Lancelottrader here are my thoughts:

1/ No weekly limits on the upside however different story for the downside...

2/ This is not really a weekly limit it is rather after a big day or two very careful or no trading for the rest of the week. Careful trading day(s) is for to mitigate the "I am invincible" affect. Especially after big days one has to be very careful and keep monitoring physiological state. Usually people get complacent after a series of wins and that is when the market will humble anyone. And yes I have personal experience on this area more than once or twice.

3/ Daily goals yap...
ex. CL these days I believe over 50 ticks per contract is pushing ones luck. It just mentally dangerous to go further because additional trades usually would happen middle of the day when things are lot less predictable and a lot more games are played to pick pocket less capitalized and or novice players.
They are exceptional days when every pull back is a buy or a sell but those are usually once or twice a month at most.
4/ On the money management for losses "Fiercely protect your capital" of course.

5/ Sim, sometimes I do just to check out how the real life decision making process goes while waiting the right side of the chart to develop. However clearly one does not have the same emotional aspects as with skin in the trade.

Hope this helps,

atata

Great analysis. Thanks.

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  #766 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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This is the type of day I like

Having a great day.(actually the weeks has been very good as well). So many pullback and trend re-entry opportunities.

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Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-06-16-2-unirenko-t2r4o2-4_21_2016-1.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-06-16-2-unirenko-t2r4o2-4_21_2016-2.jpg  
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  #767 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Some of the same trades as shown on my 2 range chart..which I also watch.

Failure is not an option
Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-06-16-2-range-4_21_2016-1.jpg  
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  #768 (permalink)
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Hello @lancelottrader,

I have a very general question, if we exclude the "human error" I would like to know in average what % of your setups failed, and by failed I means price go 5 to 10T in the "good" direction and reverse and go more than 15T against it?

I have another general question: let's say that you enter in a trade with a strong order flow, your are now in positive territory but suddenly the order flow is quiet and the market seems to hoover around the the same level. Do you exit that trade with a small profit or do you wait to see if the move and the order flow resume latter?

Thanks.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #769 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
Hello @lancelottrader,

I have a very general question, if we exclude the "human error" I would like to know in average what % of your setups failed, and by failed I means price go 5 to 10T in the "good" direction and reverse and go more than 15T against it?

I have another general question: let's say that you enter in a trade with a strong order flow, your are now in positive territory but suddenly the order flow is quiet and the market seems to hoover around the the same level. Do you exit that trade with a small profit or do you wait to see if the move and the order flow resume latter?

Thanks.

Honestly, I haven't calculated my percentage of failed setups lately..I have refined my entries in the last month and my win percentage has definitely improved. I do sometimes have a 15 tick hard stop, but I seldom let my trade go 15 ticks against me. However, sometimes price can take a nasty bounce and go 8 or 9 ticks against you. It doesn't mean the trade is always a loser..but I use my discretion. If I feel the order flow has shifted I will try to usually get out with a maximum of 10 ticks. Only rarely will I take a full 15 tick stopout. I almost always never take profits less than 10 ticks. I have a lot of 20 tick winners too, and sometimes 30 to 40..but those are more rare.
If I am in a trade and the order flow stops, I will usually be patient and wait. Some trades can pause for a while..go 5 ticks or so against you..and then start up again and hit your target. Of course it's always less stressful when you have a quick win, but sometimes you have to be patient. After having many months of hitting a decent amount of ticks each week, I don't get too worried while I'm in a trade. I know if I keep taking the best setups, in the right conditions, the numbers will work out. If on some days I lose 2 or 3 trades in a row, then I know either I am off or the market is acting very strangely. I will probably stop trading unless something dramatic happens and I get a good opportunity. Often it is best to just shut things down and come back the next day.

Failure is not an option
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  #770 (permalink)
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Great post. Sums up what I think every trader is trying to do.

Thanks for putting it so well.

Bob.

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