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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #741 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Looking better now.

Nice trade. Blasted through your target.

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  #742 (permalink)
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Just saw this momentum move and jumped in..

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  #743 (permalink)
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Decided to just grab 10 ticks.

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  #744 (permalink)
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Another quick 10 ticks..good targeting because it reversed afterwards exactly at 40.47. Haven't been posting much..but got bored today..so figured why not ?

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  #745 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Target acquired.

the cross of the 5 min opening range has worked well today (2 clear one and the third near the close was a little touchy) range 40.36 40.59.

For up cross the target was 40.59 because we had no up trend established but for a down cross you could have targeted more than 40.36.

the 5 min open range is a good tool IMO for none trending day.

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R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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Last edited by Okina; April 15th, 2016 at 04:51 PM.
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  #746 (permalink)
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the last part of the day a little messy as away during no trend day: 1 fail cross but easy to escape from - another failed but that as never reach the confirmation level = and the last one near the close who was scary by re-entering the confirmation level.

(PS sorry to pollute your journal but I see that I take the same trades sometime that you but not taken for the same reasons...)

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  #747 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
the last part of the day a little messy as away during no trend day: 1 fail cross but easy to escape from - another failed but that as never reach the confirmation level = and the last one near the close who was scary by re-entering the confirmation level.

(PS sorry to pollute your journal but I see that I take the same trades sometime that you but not taken for the same reasons...)

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There were a few opportunities but for the most part, this is not the type of day I like to trade. If you see a big overnight move (which it looks like you caught some).. especially down..and it's a friday, you can get into a type of price movement that I don't like. I think some of it has to do with the fact that a lot of big players aren't committing to taking a new position going into the weekend.

To me, the most important thing is to try to get a read on the market conditions as soon as possible..before I lose too many trades. Some of this is hard to tell from looking at a static chart..there is a sort of pulse to the market. It is something that I try to tune in on..and "Feel" it. Sometimes it comes from having traded similar looking days and knowing what happened then. I know I am good enough, at this point to do well on the obvious, easy days where price moves in a strong straightforward manner. It's the tough days that can ruin a week. ..the days where price suddenly lunges a few ticks..then turns around and chops around.. That's why I try to describe out loud what I am seeing..and then make adjustments.
If I don't understand or like what I am seeing, I simply won't trade. If I miss a few moves, I don't mind. My goal right now is to try to detect those "lousy" days and sit on my hands untill something shows up that I recognize. The good days will take care of themselves.

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  #748 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
There were a few opportunities but for the most part, this is not the type of day I like to trade. If you see a big overnight move (which it looks like you caught some).. especially down..and it's a friday, you can get into a type of price movement that I don't like. I think some of it has to do with the fact that a lot of big players aren't committing to taking a new position going into the weekend.

To me, the most important thing is to try to get a read on the market conditions as soon as possible..before I lose too many trades. Some of this is hard to tell from looking at a static chart..there is a sort of pulse to the market. It is something that I try to tune in on..and "Feel" it. Sometimes it comes from having traded similar looking days and knowing what happened then. I know I am good enough, at this point to do well on the obvious, easy days where price moves in a strong straightforward manner. It's the tough days that can ruin a week. ..the days where price suddenly lunges a few ticks..then turns around and chops around.. That's why I try to describe out loud what I am seeing..and then make adjustments.
If I don't understand or like what I am seeing, I simply won't trade. If I miss a few moves, I don't mind. My goal right now is to try to detect those "lousy" days and sit on my hands untill something shows up that I recognize. The good days will take care of themselves.

Yes big trend during the night = lousy day most of time. I have done only 3 trade during the day 2 small loses 1 big winner (of the 2 loses 1 was really because I was sleepy...).

But the impulses in order flow, you can see them on my charts it is the purple bars those one have been draw in less than 2.5 time the averages of the previous 25 bars there is an U or D below them to indicate the way they go so lots of U is an good impulse up and vice versa (and since they are CVB they measure the number of trade - it is a kind of graphical representation of the "sound indicator" that you use). This color coding helped a lot to read a review the chart after. They are static of course but not really static you can spot the move you have missed and try to understand why.

I have use this idea taken in Mark Fisher book for the first time because usually I sit on my hands at the opening since it tends to give me losers most of the time . His concept of opening range helped a lot today.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.

Last edited by Okina; April 15th, 2016 at 08:08 PM.
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  #749 (permalink)
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Musings on daily and weekly targets..

Like many other traders, I have often assigned myself a weekly goal and sometimes even a daily target in terms of how many ticks I want to achieve. The weekly goal was based on what I felt would be a healthy amount of profit that over time leveraging contracts would add up to a substantial income. It also was based on a number I felt was achievable on a consistent basis. What it was not based on was the result of statistical research. .
The questions that I would like to discuss are:
1. Should one try to achieve a set amount of ticks each day? Should a weekly goal be set and once achieved, should further trading for that week be halted?
2. Unless someone has taking all good setups in their daily sessions over a long period of time, do they truly know what kind of results their system produces? In other words if you get to 20 to 40 ticks in a day and decide to stop and then ignore some fantastic moves that happen later, are you depriving yourself of big days..that could possibly offset bad, losing days? I know when trading live and I'm up good on the day, there is a strong desire not to give back my wins. So, many times if I have made what I feel is a decent amount, I stop trading. But then I miss some trades that would work well.
3. For the math to add up, knowing that in all setups there is a random distribution of wins and losses, can you know what your "batting average" is if you decide to quit because you won a few trades?
Also, if you are 30 to 40 ticks down..should you quit for the day and possibly miss out on a huge winner ..because of some max daily drawdown rule..that ignores the math of random distribution of wins and losses?
4. Should,at least on SIM, if one is testing a system...take all good setups each day that occur..regardless of wins or losses..over a period of time so they have a reliable set of statistics that accurately measures their skill level?

I would be interested in reading what some others on here think about these questions.

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  #750 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Like many other traders, I have often assigned myself a weekly goal and sometimes even a daily target in terms of how many ticks I want to achieve. The weekly goal was based on what I felt would be a healthy amount of profit that over time leveraging contracts would add up to a substantial income. It also was based on a number I felt was achievable on a consistent basis. What it was not based on was the result of statistical research. .
The questions that I would like to discuss are:
1. Should one try to achieve a set amount of ticks each day? Should a weekly goal be set and once achieved, should further trading for that week be halted?
2. Unless someone has taking all good setups in their daily sessions over a long period of time, do they truly know what kind of results their system produces? In other words if you get to 20 to 40 ticks in a day and decide to stop and then ignore some fantastic moves that happen later, are you depriving yourself of big days..that could possibly offset bad, losing days? I know when trading live and I'm up good on the day, there is a strong desire not to give back my wins. So, many times if I have made what I feel is a decent amount, I stop trading. But then I miss some trades that would work well.
3. For the math to add up, knowing that in all setups there is a random distribution of wins and losses, can you know what your "batting average" is if you decide to quit because you won a few trades?
Also, if you are 30 to 40 ticks down..should you quit for the day and possibly miss out on a huge winner ..because of some max daily drawdown rule..that ignores the math of random distribution of wins and losses?
4. Should,at least on SIM, if one is testing a system...take all good setups each day that occur..regardless of wins or losses..over a period of time so they have a reliable set of statistics that accurately measures their skill level?

I would be interested in reading what some others on here think about these questions.

Very interesting questions that I ask to myself everyday.

The gambler logic should be to "leave the casino" once you have made a good gain. But I think it does not apply to markets.

Someday your setups perfectly describe the market and you have an incredible success most yours calls are right and I think you should capitalize on those day - it is also the most rewarding day from a personal point of view so why not taking pleasure. Someday the market behave completely differently and your setups mostly failed. This is the time to leave. Also someday after 1 or 2 trades you really see that the problem is not the setups but you, in that case it is also the time to leave (at least for a moment - in that case I leave for real and take a walk outside - unless it is -20 in Montreal lol).

The critical hours for me are 9:30 to 10:30 if at that time I see that my setups as lead mostly to bad trades I leave and will only consider going back for the close which is a different market by itself. I don't have max gain limit but I have max loses limit per day when this number is reach I also leave.

Backtesting: If I could do a complete backtesting of all the setups it will mean that I can automate the system and that I am not longer necessary - it is a dream in my case. I would like to be able to do it but I can't. I have backtested some little part of the system just to see if they make sense (like my trend patterns). But I test them on charts (but it is a difficult and not always reliable exercise since you see the result so your mind is biased) and with market replay. But the setups are always evolving even if the core of the system remain the same.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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