We are several posting trades in @michaelleemoore journal (which is by the fact no more his journal) and we react each other to our trades (win or loses) make some market calls (not mine they are worth shit, or in fact are just valid for the next 30s...lol). So far we are 4 very active (Michael of course, Inletcap, Rory and myself). It is very funny and entertaining. And more trader are joining the group. It is not a contest for "who has the biggest" but a very friendly sharing even if we have very different trading methods.
R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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Last edited by Okina; March 20th, 2016 at 05:51 PM.
I've been reading it. But when I am trading now, I try to stay extremely focused and really tune in to the "pulse" of the market. Once I start looking at other things...I lose that connection. If the market is exceedingly slow..or it's a planned break time, then I will look.
That quote of mine was from yesterday...Today didn't go very well. As I have learned countless times..Wednesday's (if they are Oil report days) price movement can be extremely erratic. Sometimes the pre report moves are ok, many times they are not. After the report comes out, order flow can be extremely jumbled...even 30 to 40 minutes later .
My setups that work so well under the right conditions, fail frequently on Wednesday. Today there were several moves that looked like reversals at the bottom. I would see a surge of contracts coming in, and I would go long..only to have it fail at some mild resistance. There was a good breakout move, but since it happened at 2:28 est, 2 minutes before pit close, I passed on it.
Now SIM trading on wednesday is a lot easier..since you can be bold and just jump right in..and often it works out. But when you are trading a decent amount of real money, these are not ideal conditions that you want to risk your cash on.
So, after again, reviewing my journal and seeing how many losing trades I have had over the years on Wednesday, I have decided not to trade CL anymore on that day. Today was the last time. The temptation is there because I have had some amazing runners post Oil report But I realize, I can easily hit my goal for the week without trading Wednesday...so why keep taking the risk. When I see momentum come in and I have a perfect entry..that usually works on every other day..but fails at a high level on this day, it's time to stop . I can't argue with my results...and watching it will only tempt me to go in. Yes, I may give up a 100 tick day..But as long as I make my money for the week and keep upping my contracts, it doesn't matter.
Failure is not an option
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I was chatting with a CL trader recently ,about his struggles going from SIM to live, and I thought I would share a few things. He relayed to me a little about his system (which was fairly similar to mine),and mentioned he had had several months of great results on SIM. However, the last few times he had gone live in the past year or so, it had always been a disaster. So like many, he found himself going live for a few weeks, suffering some losses , and then going back to SIM to "work things out." This pattern had gone on for years and was something I could relate to...having been there myself.
He seemed very puzzled why his system worked so well on SIM, but always failed miserably live. He now has been back to live for about three weeks and has won about 50 ticks the first week, but has lost the last two weeks by about 40 ticks each week. The main problem he has told me is that he can't seem to hold a trade..for even a 10 tick target, let alone a 20. He said he wins 20 tick trades all the time on SIM, but now when price pauses or bounce a few ticks against him, he immediately tries to get out at even. He says he feels so much adrenaline that he feels his heart start speeding up and pounding. He's been incredibly depressed the last week or so, since he was hitting his goal on SIM virtually every week.
If some of you think the guy sounds like a weak "Beta Male" type, and you are just a SIM trader...you may be in for a little adjustment period of your own. I can definitely identify with this guy. I had almost the exact same issue when I would go live. Once I made my final live transition, I made up my mind I was not going to return to SIM, no matter what. And it was time to sink or swim. I had been going back and forth from SIM to live for years and if many of you here are honest, I bet a lot of you have, too.
The big problem that comes up is fear of loss. It is 100 times more magnified live than SIM and it will make you pull the plug on lots of winning trades. And if you time in a trade like I do (and the guy I was chatting with)on Small time frames, you can have issues when watching your trade journey to it's target. Lots of things happen on that journey: Ideally, it can blast right to your target quickly...or it can suddenly pause and not do much for 10 minutes or so but bounce a few ticks up and down. Each one of those little downward ticks can be stressful. Or the trade can go against you 6 or 7 ticks and look like a sure loser. But many of these trades go on to win and by getting out of them, you can't make up for your inevitable losses. Watching that P and L and looking at a tiny timeframe can be so much harder live than SIM ..especially if you've had a few losing weeks.
What worked for me was..after taking my entry, I stopped watching the 2 range chart while I was in the trade. Instead I'd look at a 5 minute chart with no profit and loss showing. The slower movement was much less stressful on my brain. If I had a stop as large as 15 and say a target of 20 or 30..I would set price alerts when I was 10 ticks down and maybe 10 ticks up. On the 5 minute chart I drew a green horizontal line where my target was and a red line where my stop was. So basically, no interference until the 10 tick alert sounded and then maybe a quick glance at my 2 range to see if I thought it could go further. But looking at the empty 5 minute chart was much easier on my brain in terms of staying in a trade. I don't always do that now, but when I was going from SIM to live, it helped me stay in my trades. I had broke even on so many winning trades initially, I had to do this to stay in them. Also one can set price alerts at the target and stop ..and simply walk out of the room ..you will hear the alert when either has been hit and then you can come in and verify your platform worked...lol.
Hopefully this will help the guy or someone else who may have trouble staying in their trades.
Failure is not an option
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