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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #581 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 624 given, 2,445 received

Today's post oil report move demonstrates what I call an order flow event. Extreme volume to the upside initially...then a retrace...which triggers 1000's of stop loss orders..then longs exiting their positions..profit taking..All this combines to have a fast 100+ tick reversal that has nothing to do with fundamentals..technical analysis or anything..pure order flow move.
I caught a few good moves already..waiting for a possible move back up later.

Failure is not an option
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  #582 (permalink)
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Beaverton, Canada
 
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lancelottrader View Post
There were a few factors involved in the entry. First at close to 9 am est, I felt we were starting see a possible trend change at around the 36.65 area. Price made an initial impulse wave long of about 45 ticks...My orderflow indicators showed some decent buying going on in that move.
One of my preferred setups is the first pullback/re-entry after a fresh, new trend reversal. Keep in mind, I'm not waiting for the close of a 5 minute chart..or some lagging indicator to tell me I have a new fresh trend underway.
So price pulled back to around 36.90 from 37.10 (which was around a 50% fib pullback)..touched twice to form a W. That is one of my setup types and then my entry is on the break of the black spine. My Tick Strike order flow indicator also began to signal buy orders coming in...my 10 second volume chart shows buy volume accumulating (you can see the increase if you look at the video.) And the icing on the cake happens to be the 9:40 am time. This is a time I call the Hotzone. It is 10 minutes after the opening of the equity session..and after some initial flurry of orders in stocks..etc..often the true first move shows up. This also carries over to Cl as well. In Cl..it just often means some increased volume comes in at that time.
Hope that explains the entry.


Thanks Lance. I appreciate your comments.

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  #583 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
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Price on Cl is moving in a rather "bouncy" manner so far...Not a good day for tight stops.

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  #584 (permalink)
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Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
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But it is moving up..for now.

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  #585 (permalink)
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Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
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Lost a few early on...was 30 ticks down..now almost even...not an easy day to trade...Might stay out for a while.

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  #586 (permalink)
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Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
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I will probably not take any entries on Cl unless price fails at a significant low or high of the session..then possibly play a reversal. Conditions are not good for my usual entries.

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  #587 (permalink)
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Hello Lancelottrader

Reading your thread very interesting progress on your trading, congrats.
Difficult day to trade CL.
Do you look at TF on days like this?, and like CL, hours you like?
I have sim trading cl on 2 range chart and like the pace,for me. Being trading other instruments like ES, NQ, sometimes CL watching times of the day, also make my day shorter.
CL and TF seem to fit me better, like momentum,volatility etc.
If you trade TF can you recorded so we can watch and learn more of your analysis trading it?
Appreciate your help.
Srq1

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  #588 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 624 given, 2,445 received

Anyhow..for me..this was a day to basically stay out. This is what I refer to when I mention unfavorable market conditions. These are also the days that provide those statistics you read about in the threads that claim price action setups and patterns don't work.
You have to determine, early on, that this is not the type of day to keep taking entries or you will probably end up losing lots of trades.

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  #589 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 624 given, 2,445 received


Srq1 View Post
Reading your thread very interesting progress on your trading, congrats.
Difficult day to trade CL.
Do you look at TF on days like this?, and like CL, hours you like?
I have sim trading cl on 2 range chart and like the pace,for me. Being trading other instruments like ES, NQ, sometimes CL watching times of the day, also make my day shorter.
CL and TF seem to fit me better, like momentum,volatility etc.
If you trade TF can you recorded so we can watch and learn more of your analysis trading it?
Appreciate your help.
Srq1

Yes, I took some trades on TF today and made about 30 ticks..but they were only on SIM. I need a few more weeks on it before I go live..When I go live..I will probably record both monitors so the TF trades can be seen. The problem is when I record both monitors, it shows up as a split screen and the charts are pretty small. It's hard to see the details.
I like the opening hour or so on TF and the last half hour sometimes.

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  #590 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sarasota, Fla
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader ,Tos
Favorite Futures: NQ YM ES
 
Posts: 43 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 182 given, 15 received

TF trading


I thought you trade TF, read it in one of your post, while back, .
Are you re-training yourself on it.
Are you using same system.
How did you do before when you trade it.
Thanks for taken the time to respond
Srq1

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