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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #471 (permalink)
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Thought I would write a bit about the system and how each step has a function. Many of the steps evolved from observing common mistakes I would make.

1. Research and Battle plan- By researching all relevant support and resistance levels and scrolling through the overnight session, I can assess what has happened, where a potential influx of buyers or sellers might come in ..and come up with a pre market open strategy that reflects that research.
Often when a market would open, I would trade without having that kind of info in front of me. Then I would be surprised when price reacted to certain levels I hadn't thoroughly assessed. It's helpful to have a plan of action before the market opens. Now this plan can be adjusted as the conditions reveal themselves. My plans often take both short and long trades into consideration. Even if a strong trend appears to be in place, things can change quickly in Cl. I always think in both directions.

2. Commentary, Trade setup announcement and checklist- As I have mentioned I do a verbal commentary on what I feel is happening at any given moment in the market and when I am about to enter a trade I announce the type of setup it is. Often..there are many moments that tempt me to want to enter a trade..even if that trade setup doesn't meet my criteria. I have specific names for my 3 or 4 setups I use...and if the opportunity does not fit into one of those setups, I take a pass. This prevents random entries that simply "look good" or they "feel" like they are moving up..or down.
Then before entering I do a quick checklist for possible adverse conditions. These may include price congestion in the way of a target...the stop placement requires more risk than I want..the entry is already late and way past my designated entry point...the conditions are weak and there is no momentum. Maybe news is coming out in 5 minutes or has just come out a few seconds ago..So, in other words even if I see a setup that structurally is one of my favored types, I will not take it if there are too many adverse conditions at the same time.
This, in my opinion, is the main reason traders fail. They may have a system or setups..but they don't have the ability to process real time adverse market conditions. So, they hop from one "Holy Grail" system to the next..because they never learn how to read market conditions. It's the same reason most automated systems have long periods of drawdown. They simply can't adjust to changes in conditions.

3. After a few losses, I take a brief time out and review my emotional state...and the state of the market. I then decide if my trade plan needs re-evaluating. Some days..the only valid trades turn out to be when price reaches an extreme price level and reverses. This means the path to those price levels is often to bumpy or choppy to take anything that leads to the destination. In other words..stay out until those price levels are reached. In the past I would take 4 or 5 losses in a row because I kept thinking, "Well maybe this one will work." Now, I know better.

By the way, in my last post..when I mentioned this thread doesn't get much interest, I wasn't directing that at the few people who consistently come on here and put their thanks and replies on my posts. I know who you are and I appreciate all of you. I like making the videos and sharing my ideas...but it is a bit time consuming..and I would prefer this to be more interactive. I don't think you find, on trading forums in general, someone like myself that actually shows their recorded sessions...and explains in detail the reasons for taking the trades. I am glad there are a few on here that appreciate that and again thanks for following this thread. You few are the only reason I continue to post in this journal.

Lance

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  #472 (permalink)
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CL made a $2 (40.6 - 42.6) move early in this morning and almost reversed the entire move now.

Is this common? What caused the $2 jump?

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  #473 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
CL made a $2 (40.6 - 42.6) move early in this morning and almost reversed the entire move now.

Is this common? What caused the $2 jump?

Oil Price Up as Saudi Arabia Votes to Cooperate With Non-OPEC Nations - WSJ

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  #474 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
CL made a $2 (40.6 - 42.6) move early in this morning and almost reversed the entire move now.

Is this common? What caused the $2 jump?

Hi..While it doesn't happen every day, it is fairly common to see CL suddenly run up 200 + ticks and then quickly reverse almost the entire move. I've mentioned that in some of my posts on this thread..If one is flexible and can think in both directions..these moves provide some great opportunities.

I think this news this morning had something to do with the move.
Oil rises after Saudi Arabia reiterates willing to work with non-OPEC | Reuters

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  #475 (permalink)
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On Chat area of main page


jonc View Post
CL made a $2 (40.6 - 42.6) move early in this morning and almost reversed the entire move now.

Is this common? What caused the $2 jump?

@jonc

The Saudi thing that others have mentioned was flagged in the Chat section of this site's main/home page.

Pays sometimes to glance at that for breaking news.

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  #476 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
CL made a $2 (40.6 - 42.6) move early in this morning and almost reversed the entire move now.

Is this common? What caused the $2 jump?

Oil Tumbles Back Into Red As Saudi "Whatever It Takes" Jawboning Is Not Enough | Zero Hedge

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  #477 (permalink)
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I'm in a long..holding for 40 ticks.

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  #478 (permalink)
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Took 30 ticks. instead,

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  #479 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
CL made a $2 (40.6 - 42.6) move early in this morning and almost reversed the entire move now.

Is this common? What caused the $2 jump?

OPEC Says Higher Oil Prices Are Coming, Big Oil Companies Say No | Seeking Alpha

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  #480 (permalink)
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steve2222 View Post
@jonc

The Saudi thing that others have mentioned was flagged in the Chat section of this site's main/home page.

Pays sometimes to glance at that for breaking news.

Just saw it. Thanks

are there also sites or twitter accounts which are good for real time oil specific news?

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