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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #31 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Las Vegas, NV/USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
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lancelottrader View Post
I'm embarrassed to even say what happened to me today...I totally lost control of my emotions and discipline. First I must admit I went to a Halloween part last night and drank way too much Red wine. I knew I was way too hungover to trade properly..but my ego said, "Ok, just trade 1 contract of TF." So I tried drinking a little extra coffee to sharpen up...this only made me feel hungover and..anxious. Somehow by 2pm, I was over $350 down. Normally I would have walked away and chalked it up to a bad day. Somehow I started becoming unhinged and I put on a 5 contract trade..even though the market wasn't looking too great...Lost 10 ticks..now $850 down. Like a maniac I put on 10 contracts and quickly lose 10 more ticks. Now minus $1850.00, I take another 10 contract trade and bail out when I'm 5 ticks up. So I make only $500 back. Finally, I summoned the strength to walk away from my computer. The lesson here is obvious..Never trade when you know you are impaired in some way. I was hungover and caffeinated and all my rules and discipline flew out the window. Believe me folks, this hasn't happened to me in years. I'm still in shock.. I am not a novice at this...Anyhow..this thread is supposed to be about catching runners on TF...Here's the one I should have waited for..in the final 3 minutes of today's US stock market session. I'm usually pretty good at catching stuff like this..but I had already walked away from the PC.

Thanks for sharing. Helpful to hear I'm not the only one messing up like that.

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  #32 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
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bluemele View Post
How did you do yesterday in the MONSTER MASH at the opening bell?

Good question. I was watching my YM chart at the same time..and I thought TF would make a nice nosedive..but instead it made some choppy surges...I lost 12 ticks in the first 30 minutes of the open...Decided I didn't like the price action and went on Demo. After I lost a few on that, I knew that I had made the right choice. I was watching around 1 pm est and went back live and caught 10 ticks on a pretty good move. I was a bit jumpy so I got out a bit earlier than I should.

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  #33 (permalink)
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There was a nice short later in the day, but boy, who knew... I guess someone did.

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  #34 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Nice momentum on this one

The opening US session was rather bumpy for TF and I lost 12 ticks on my first Trade. I noticed CL was very strong, so I jumped into a move there and made back some ticks. Then started watching TF again around 3:00 Pm est . I saw some downward volatility start picking up and I noticed the Dow started plummeting. I hesitated and missed the first wave down in TF at about 3:13. So less than 10 minutes later, I saw the price start dancing around a mild support level , which my software had drawn. I was also watching the dow continue down strongly and I jumped in at about 736 and stayed in untill my trailing stop dots got breached at 729.5 This all happened in about 5 minutes. To me, this is the type of trades I wait for. It's all about momentum..When price is moving slow and there is no volatility, it's just a guessing game for me...Maybe it will go up, maybe it will go down. But with a trade like this, it's pretty obvious which way it's going.. But to wait for these moments takes huge amounts of discipline, which I don't always have. Getting better though.

Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-tf-12-11-2-range-11_16_2011dotrunner6points.jpg  
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  #35 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Next week changing some rules

I've had a rule for a few weeks that says after a 20 tick drawdown for the day, I'm done live trading. So today after losing 20 ticks, I switched to SIM and must have made over 75 ticks. These two beauties in the charts show the Stock index meltdown at around 12:15 pm. I think mathematically for any system to work out, you need to take ALL high probability trades that meet your edge or criteria in a given session. Often I will quit live too soon and then make huge profits on SIM. Also, I quit when I'm 20 ticks down and like today miss out on some good opportunities.

Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-ym-12-11-2-range-11_17_2011sim.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-tf-12-11-2-range-11_17_2011sim.jpg  
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  #36 (permalink)
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Hey lanceolot,

How has the trading been going since your last post?

I just finnish reading this thread because your style and approach to trading is very simular to mine.

I traded not too long ago depending heavely on indicators, and have concluded that a simple approach based on price movement is best.

Anyways, look forward to hear how things have been going.

Cheers Float

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  #37 (permalink)
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Doing good


float View Post
Hey lanceolot,

How has the trading been going since your last post?

I just finnish reading this thread because your style and approach to trading is very simular to mine.

I traded not too long ago depending heavely on indicators, and have concluded that a simple approach based on price movement is best.

Anyways, look forward to hear how things have been going.

Cheers Float

Hi there. Thanks for asking.. Things have been getting better and better. I have been focusing a little more on Crude Oil lately since I have been seeing much bigger moves in it lately. It seems the best times to catch some of these moves are at 9 am EST, between 9:30 and 9:45 am EST..and 11 am est is often a great time. Around 2 to 2:30 PM is also good . The Euro (6E ) often makes some nice pushes at 11 am as well. Strangely enough, I rarely see anyone ever mention the 11 am moves on most Forums. Guess I should kind of keep that tidbit to myself. My chart set up has definitely helped keep me in some runners, that I'm sure I would have exited early without. I really don't see how everyone likes to trade CL with a 5 minute chart. 5 minutes seems like an eternity to me with something that moves as fast as oil. Anyhow, my exit strategy is either to exit when the algorithmic trailing stop dots are breached..or if I feel it is breaking through more price levels, I will wait untill the black spine is penetrated. The charts below show examples of both types of exits. By the way, how is your trading going?

Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-03-12-2-range-1_23_2012-dotrun-60-ticks.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-03-12-2-range-1_25_2012-spine-run-60-ticks.jpg  

Last edited by lancelottrader; February 6th, 2012 at 06:11 PM. Reason: forgot to attach files
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  #38 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Hi there. Thanks for asking.. Things have been getting better and better. I have been focusing a little more on Crude Oil lately since I have been seeing much bigger moves in it lately. It seems the best times to catch some of these moves are at 9 am EST, between 9:30 and 9:45 am EST..and 11 am est is often a great time. Around 2 to 2:30 PM is also good . The Euro (6E ) often makes some nice pushes at 11 am as well. Strangely enough, I rarely see anyone ever mention the 11 am moves on most Forums. Guess I should kind of keep that tidbit to myself. My chart set up has definitely helped keep me in some runners, that I'm sure I would have exited early without. I really don't see how everyone likes to trade CL with a 5 minute chart. 5 minutes seems like an eternity to me with something that moves as fast as oil. Anyhow, my exit strategy is either to exit when the algorithmic trailing stop dots are breached..or if I feel it is breaking through more price levels, I will wait untill the black spine is penetrated. The charts below show examples of both types of exits. By the way, how is your trading going?

the 6E moves around that time because that is when they are starting to close for the day.. across the pond..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #39 (permalink)
Elite Member
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I have been recording my trading sessions on using the Screen Movie Studio desktop screen recording program and I've found it to be very useful . I do a constant commentary while watching the CL market and announce when I see a viable setup occuring. I have noticed when I watch it back, I can see some patterns consistently emerging before a big move takes off in Oil. Here's kind of what my screen looks like when Oil is about to make a strong push. I reccomend this to traders to be able to review their trades. I record myself stating why I should enter, why I should hold the trade or exit, what the prevailing market conditions are (choppy, trending, chaotic or volatile). I do constant "What-if" scenarios.

In other words I look at potential entries, long or short, and say what additional conditions must be met if that entry price is reached. I like to see what the dollar index and the dow are doing, what's the volume like..along with my signals generated from my software.

By watching the videos, I can see when all the factors come together that result in a high probability trade. I save the videos, of course, on a portable hard drive, to preserve disk space on my PC.

Failure is not an option
Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-8-28-move-part-3.png  
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  #40 (permalink)
Elite Member
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 719 since Oct 2011
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Nice move yesterday during Bernanke's speech. Cl started to dive a couple of minutes into the speech, then did a nice quick 100 tick reversal. The charts below show the move from the 2 range and 5 range perspective. I will sometimes take my 2 range signal (the break of the thick black spine) before the 5 range gives me a signal (the color change and ema crossover combo). Sometimes I ride out the trade and use the exit signal from the 5 range..in this case a 100 tick ride.

Failure is not an option
Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-10-12-5-range-8_31_2012-100-tick-pop.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-10-12-2-range-8_31_2012-70-tick-move.jpg  
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