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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
Started: by lancelottrader Views / Replies:115,553 / 863
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #361 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,393 received


BlueRoo View Post
Lance, I hope you are doing well. I thought I would share my results from September with you. I am starting to try and build some statistics around my trading style and edge to discover finer edges for improvement. Any thoughts are welcome. Cheers Michael (BlueRoo)

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By the way, what is the average contract size being used for these trades?

Failure is not an option
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  #362 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: OX, Z360, Excel
Broker/Data: DeCarley
Favorite Futures: Futures and Future Options
 
Posts: 121 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 75 given, 96 received


lancelottrader View Post
Perhaps you could share some of your method and rules..if you are comfortable with that .

But yes, it looks like you are doing great. Thanks for showing this.

Lance, Yes the win rate is good. I put that down to being patient. My R:R could improve and some of my entry and exit errors as well as psychology. Working to improve. Here is a graphic of the main setup. Simple price crossover...with second average confirmation. "If price crosses the vein in favour of the spine enter at the value of the vein or on the confirmation bar."

2 or 3 lots for CL.

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  #363 (permalink)
Elite Member
Santa Barbara, CA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: ZB
 
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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, Yes the win rate is good. I put that down to being patient. My R:R could improve and some of my entry and exit errors as well as psychology. Working to improve. Here is a graphic of the main setup. Simple price crossover...with second average confirmation. "If price crosses the vein in favour of the spine enter at the value of the vein or on the confirmation bar."

2 or 3 lots for CL.

May I ask what the moving average parameters are?

Is the chart for 5 minute?

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  #364 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: OX, Z360, Excel
Broker/Data: DeCarley
Favorite Futures: Futures and Future Options
 
Posts: 121 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 75 given, 96 received


wshi88 View Post
May I ask what the moving average parameters are?

Is the chart for 5 minute?

The parameters that you choose to use do not make it perform better.

You have to start with your trigger chart and that depends upon what you are comfortable watching...

For me it is a 1500 Vol Chart with 21/55 or 21/75.

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  #365 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,393 received

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BlueRoo View Post
Lance, Yes the win rate is good. I put that down to being patient. My R:R could improve and some of my entry and exit errors as well as psychology. Working to improve. Here is a graphic of the main setup. Simple price crossover...with second average confirmation. "If price crosses the vein in favour of the spine enter at the value of the vein or on the confirmation bar."

2 or 3 lots for CL.

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Thank you for that. I sort of get the idea of what you are doing.

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  #366 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,393 received

A little update. I have continued to hit my weekly goal the last several weeks. As far as trading TF with Oil, I have not transitioned to live trading 100% on TF. I have taken some live trades with it. There are days where it does get into the type of conditions I can recognize and do well with.

However, I realize my expertise is with Cl. I understand how it moves and I know what my charts look like when it is the ideal time to trade it. The reason of course is that I have traded it, almost exclusively for the last three or four years. I am still going to keep watching TF as well for a few more weeks. There are volatile days with great moves..and I want to try to see if I can take advantage of those days. But for me, even on a lousy Cl day, I can usually find a move or two and make at least 20 ticks or so.

The one area that I have made great improvements in, is in controlling impulses and following rules. I also feel like I have gotten very good at reading real time market conditions. I absolutely will not put my money at risk in what I consider adverse conditions. At the same time, I will not hesitate to take a trade if everything lines up such as...momentum, lack of obstacles in the way of target, great price action setup...great hotzone time of day and overwhelming order flow imbalance.

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  #367 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Favorite Futures: Gold, Oil
 
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Posts: 338 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 937 given, 439 received

Lance,

Do you feel that you're now at ease with your new contract size? How long did it take you after increasing to really feel comfortable like you used to before you increased? Just curious as I'm contemplating an increase in contract size. I would also be interested in how your fills changed if any. I know CL is fairly liquid but nothing like ES. Thanks!

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  #368 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,393 received


TheShrike View Post
Lance,

Do you feel that you're now at ease with your new contract size? How long did it take you after increasing to really feel comfortable like you used to before you increased? Just curious as I'm contemplating an increase in contract size. I would also be interested in how your fills changed if any. I know CL is fairly liquid but nothing like ES. Thanks!

The answer is no...I'm not at ease yet. I still get a bit of adrenaline after entering a trade, but much better than a few weeks back.

On a positive note, I am much more likely to wait for the absolute best setup and conditions now..since there is more at stake. The fills have been fine so far. I don't know how many contracts one can trade with Cl before there are problems. I traded 10 a few years back and they filled fine. Maybe 20 and up is an issue? I don't know. Maybe if I get up to that eventually, I'll just press 10 twice. lol.

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  #369 (permalink)
Elite Member
Saint Louis Missouri
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: crude oil
 
Posts: 73 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 61 given, 33 received

order flow imbalance


lancelottrader View Post
A little update. I have continued to hit my weekly goal the last several weeks. As far as trading TF with Oil, I have not transitioned to live trading 100% on TF. I have taken some live trades with it. There are days where it does get into the type of conditions I can recognize and do well with.

However, I realize my expertise is with Cl. I understand how it moves and I know what my charts look like when it is the ideal time to trade it. The reason of course is that I have traded it, almost exclusively for the last three or four years. I am still going to keep watching TF as well for a few more weeks. There are volatile days with great moves..and I want to try to see if I can take advantage of those days. But for me, even on a lousy Cl day, I can usually find a move or two and make at least 20 ticks or so.

The one area that I have made great improvements in, is in controlling impulses and following rules. I also feel like I have gotten very good at reading real time market conditions. I absolutely will not put my money at risk in what I consider adverse conditions. At the same time, I will not hesitate to take a trade if everything lines up such as...momentum, lack of obstacles in the way of target, great price action setup...great hotzone time of day and overwhelming order flow imbalance.

Lance,
How do you recognize order flow imbalance ? Thanks ,
Amin

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  #370 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sacramento, California
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Tradestation & SIM NT7
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 6 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 11 given, 7 received

stupid question


Hiya, I just spent over 2 hours reading through your CL trading thread. Very entertaining read.

I have a very stupid question but cannot shake off why this wouldn't work. Using the rampage scalper indicator, why can't you just reverse your position every time you see an arrow / the color changes? Yes you would rack up the commissions during choppy times, and break even a lot. But you wouldn't miss any big rides?

Please let me know why this clearly wouldn't work

Thanks again for posting it has been a great read!

-amob

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