So what do you do when the market ranges like mad?
Give back all your Big Wave profits?
You have some great examples and of course anyone could trade an ATR breakout and make 'gobs', but the trick is knowing that the market is going to do this or not. If you could predict for certain that a date is ranging or a day is trending then that alone would make you a billionaire within a couple years.
No offense to you personally, but the obvious has been printed in your thread here.
"If price moves up and keeps moving up, stay long!"
Nope that is definitely not me, nor anyone I have yet to meet or even see trade.
You are right that it is a 'feel' of the market and it requires 'chart time', and I apologize as my post seems pretty insulting which it wasn't meant to be. I am tired of reading thread posts with the following:
"Indicators are the past..." and finish it with "...Volume is the predictor" OR "...Cumulative Delta is the predictor" OR "...Market Profile setups are the clear predictor" OR ...............
I guess we are in agreement. The only real indicator as PandaWarrior has named himself in gratitude is the person behind the mouse.
Lornz and you may have a special gift and that is great to share that, so please accept my apologies. But if you are given a block of stone to chisel from, people will come up with 10,000 ways to do it and none of them 'right'.
I am happy you can hit those long runs. Something I hope to aspire to! I just remember when I would trade trend, I would be up on my account and then give it all back because I didn't know when to stop! haha....
That all comes with exp. in my opinion which is something you point out!!!
The following 2 users say Thank You to bluemele for this post:
When reading your posts this reminded me of some experiences I had watching the eurodollar.
This is because there were a number of times when I had the following experience that I relatively “ certain” “ knew” price was going to fall or rise for a good move. Because if you watch an instrument live for several months you “ feel” that the candles and waves are more bearish or bullish behaving than ‘normal’.
The clues I could see it were just the way the candles were formed. You can see the candles get more “ jumpy” and you “ see and feel” that the downticks are made far easier /faster than the upticks ( in bearish case/short).
It is just that because I am not that experienced I am waiting like a good boy for a pullback. This while your inner voice also says “ there ain’t going to be a pullback” and just sell, it is falling now, the later you jump in the riskier it will be. Perfect pattern or not, this is just going down.
Of course, there is a good possibility is that I think I can feel those instances, but reality is different because my mind will filter out the times I’m wrong. I dare not to put real money in this ‘ feeling’ because there is no statistical backup for it. So this is maybe something I have to note down every time I think it will happen to see the actual results.
Is this what you are meaning or totally not?
Last edited by Zwaen; October 24th, 2011 at 04:52 AM.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Zwaen for this post:
Being I have lurked on here for a bit...I have read several of your posts and I definitely respect your opinion. As far as hitting the Home runs, that is fairly new for me. My prevalent style is scalping. I wouldn't consider these examples I gave "Trend Trades." They are more momentum moves that I follow closely with a manual trailing stop or a tight Ninja ATM strategy. Generally a 7 tick move against me and I'm out, but if I sense the move is a quick pullback because the price just bounced off a minor support or resistance level (but it still has some juice on it), I may withstand a 10 tick pullback, but that's pretty much it. Also, I try to move myself to breakeven as soon as possible. If I scratch a few trades, I'm ok with that.
Yes, I think you are giving some great examples of what I'm writing about. I traded the euro/usd (Forex) almost exclusively for 3 years..watching it every trading day from about 9 am est untill 12 pm est. I got to know it real well and how it moved . For example, if you were to watch it around 11 am est, on many days the price would suddenly start accelerating. I would watch my chart and also my Broker Panel. You could see it really start to race. Now I would see that it would race up (or down ) depending on direction to the next level of price congestion..which my software would draw those areas..in real time. So, one technique I'd use was to enter 5 to 10 ticks away from the price congestion area..and if it failed to breakthrough..exit with my small profit. If it broke through, sometimes there would be a 20 to 50 pip move in less than 5 minutes. Now if the breakthrough occured at 9:10 am and there was very little price acceleration, I would not enter. More than likely, the breakout would fail. In fact, you could often win a small profit by taking the opposite direction. Also 10:40 am est often yields a big move in euro/usd...Not sure why. I figure 11 am, there is some European market closing, so I get that. But 10:40 is often great too. I have many charts I've saved of euro/usd with great 11 am and 10:40 moves. Anyhow, I know this is the Index Futures forum, so I don't want to get too far off track. I do see some amazing moves on TF at 3:45 pm est as well. Traders closing out their positions for the day causes some nice 'Runners." I guess the bottom line is if you watch these instruments long enough, you can start recognizing some high probability patterns. Then trading these patterns and starting to win consistently will help with the fear and hesitation involved in pulling the trigger.
The following 5 users say Thank You to lancelottrader for this post:
Lancelottrader, I was wondering if you could break your paragraphs up a bit kinda like I did on the most recent one. The unbroken paragraphs make it difficult for me to read and I think you have something worth reading. To be honest, I generally skip paragraphs with more than 3-4 sentences, even when I write them.....but I've made forced myself to read yours at least up to this point.
Don't take offense at my request, you write the way I talk and write. But I force myself to break my paragraphs apart once I've written them.....makes it easier for me to read what I've written.
Thanks for the thread, I've enjoyed it so far.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 2 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post: