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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #181 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I agree with you in terms of limiting risk...BUT inventory is a great way to make fast money....you just have to be on the right side of the move....and here is an interesting tidbit....the movers are already positioned for the move...well in advance....they know whats coming more or less long before we do....and so you will often see a head fake in one direction prior to the move in the opposite direction.

Ok so keep that in mind...

Now for the good part....the set up you would ordinarily take usually appears 15-45 minutes ahead of the number....its not always a small stop as you know....and 20 can sometimes be inside the liquidity vacuum and thus gets filled and yet not have the price printed on the screen....its happened to me a couple of times although not recently.

So this means you can look for your entry well before the number and just hold through it....keep in mind there's usually some violence in the first couple seconds but if you can withstand that, the money is there....

Today was a good example at least for me of a 50/50 set up....so I traded it small but I was uncertain because not all my references were lined up like I want to see them...but the near term trend was down and so watching the dom, I just clicked in....and it was all good from there.....

If this isn't something you feel you can do or even think is prudent, then by all means don't...but the method is there if you want to....

Thanks for that..Some great points. I highly value your opinion and suggestions.
I do think you have to have some big Cajones and a lot of testosterone to enter before the numbers come out.
I have seen some violent surprises. I tried it once and it moved 60 ticks against me in close to five seconds...and my stop got hit with massive slippage. Lately though, it hasn't done stuff like that. I think the overwhelming downward momentum has blunted the recent oil report reactions.

I find one of the best setups is when it moves up strongly 100 ticks or so..hits a resistance level and then starts reversing. (That happened today after the initial move down) From what I have seen..many, many times is that the reversal moves down pretty much as strong as the move up..I think all the stops from all the people that went long at various levels start getting hit and it creates this snowball effect.

Sometimes I have done well.entering a few minutes after the numbers..since I am pretty good with fast, volatile moves..but often I have lost many trades too early as well.

For me the best bet is 20 to 30 minutes after the announcement when the price is less "bouncy". I have been trading the inventory for several years..but Wednesday has been my most consistent losing day.

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  #182 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
That's a good question..It's a fairly dynamic indicator that responds to price in various conditions. If you take a 2 range chart..a 75 period EMA comes pretty close.

I found 2 range is too small and choppy, but 4 range is looking promising with 10 and 75 EMA's:

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  #183 (permalink)
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meow View Post
I found 2 range is too small and choppy, but 4 range is looking promising with 10 and 75 EMA's:

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That looks good..I only use the 2 range to time some of my entries..I always look at bigger timeframes as well. That chart looks similar to the ones I have with the Rampage indicators.

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  #184 (permalink)
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Perhaps because I was battling a bad cold, I found this week in Cl to be somewhat challenging. I did end up getting past my minimum 60 tick weekly goal, but it wasn't easy.
I'm sure a lot of people will read this and scoff at the idea of only 60 ticks for the week. We've all seen a few Cl threads where people look like they are making 100's of ticks a week. More power to them. I can assure you, if I was averaging 200 ticks a week..I would be making close to a Million dollars a year. All you have to do is build up your account..and keep leveraging. Imagine just 10 contracts at 200 ticks a week...That's $20,000 a week..about $80,000 a month..or $960,000 a year. Now imagine that at 20 lots.

So, anyhow, I have been trying to prove on 1 contract that I can make at least 60 ticks a week live for at least 3 months straight. I have found that this is an attainable goal right now for me. I have a statistical 'Batting average" that shows I am at this level. I probably will keep improving and be able to make more in the future. But the important thing is I have clearly defined my risk . The worst I generally will lose on a trade is between 10 to 15 ticks. There are exceptions on Oil report day where I might take a 20 tick loss, but generally 15 is max and 10 to 12 is the usual. Wins average between 20 to 30 ticks, but there are times when I catch a 50 to 60 tick strong momentum move. Again, I find lots of 20 to 30 tick opportunities and since these for my style of trading have a high probability, I target these moves.

So, the next step is to trade 2 contracts and achieve the same 60 ticks for a couple of months. Then I will go to 5 contracts. At 60 ticks a week, that is about $12,000 a month. After several months of that, the plan would be to build up my account to comfortably trade 10 contracts. That's $24,000.00 a month.

This to me is an attainable goal. So, I don't care about finding some magic system or honing myself to make 100's of ticks a week..since I can make all I need from building my account up and leveraging contracts. So, while 60 ticks a week seems paltry to some..it is all I need.

I have been getting good results on my NQ Sim trading. My chart setups work very well on it and my Tick strike indicator is a huge help. I made over a 100 ticks on NQ this week. Again, it was SIM, but I am confident I will be able to incorporate it into my live trading eventually. The benefit of course is that I will have a choice of trading, at any given moment, the best moving instrument between CL and NQ.

Where I have really improved as a Trader is in my ability to read the prevailing market conditions. I can recognize early in a session if the moves are going to be choppy or chaotic. There are days..or at least part of days where virtually every setup will fail because of the type of day. On the other hand there are days where several opportunities will present themselves. Those are the days you have to keep trading and take advantage of those conditions.

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Last edited by lancelottrader; October 25th, 2014 at 11:18 AM.
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  #185 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Perhaps because I was battling a bad cold, I found this week in Cl to be somewhat challenging. I did end up getting past my minimum 60 tick weekly goal, but it wasn't easy.
I'm sure a lot of people will read this and scoff at the idea of only 60 ticks for the week. We've all seen a few Cl threads where people look like they are making 100's of ticks a week. More power to them. I can assure you, if I was averaging 200 ticks a week..I would be making close to a Million dollars a year. All you have to do is build up your account..and keep leveraging. Imagine just 10 contracts at 200 ticks a week...That's $20,000 a week..about $80,000 a month..or $960,000 a year. Now imagine that at 20 lots.

So, anyhow, I have been trying to prove on 1 contract that I can make at least 60 ticks a week live for at least 3 months straight. I have found that this is an attainable goal right now for me. I have a statistical 'Batting average" that shows I am at this level. I probably will keep improving and be able to make more in the future. But the important thing is I have clearly defined my risk . The worst I generally will lose on a trade is between 10 to 15 ticks. There are exceptions on Oil report day where I might take a 20 tick loss, but generally 15 is max and 10 to 12 is the usual. Wins average between 20 to 30 ticks, but there are times when I catch a 50 to 60 tick strong momentum move. Again, I find lots of 20 to 30 tick opportunities and since these for my style of trading have a high probability, I target these moves.

So, the next step is to trade 2 contracts and achieve the same 60 ticks for a couple of months. Then I will go to 5 contracts. At 60 ticks a week, that is about $12,000 a month. After several months of that, the plan would be to build up my account to comfortably trade 10 contracts. That's $24,000.00 a month.

This to me is an attainable goal. So, I don't care about finding some magic system or honing myself to make 100's of ticks a week..since I can make all I need from building my account up and leveraging contracts. So, while 60 ticks a week seems paltry to some..it is all I need.

I have been getting good results on my NQ Sim trading. My chart setups work very well on it and my Tick strike indicator is a huge help. I made over a 100 ticks on NQ this week. Again, it was SIM, but I am confident I will be able to incorporate it into my live trading eventually. The benefit of course is that I will have a choice of trading, at any given moment, the best moving instrument between CL and NQ.

Where I have really improved as a Trader is in my ability to read the prevailing market conditions. I can recognize early in a session if the moves are going to be choppy or chaotic. There are days..or at least part of days where virtually every setup will fail because of the type of day. On the other hand there are days where several opportunities will present themselves. Those are the days you have to keep trading and take advantage of those conditions.



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  #186 (permalink)
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Thinking of dusting this off the shelf..

Here is a tool I've had for a few years that I've been testing out again recently. Thinking of using it under certain conditions to automate my trade management. I feel it could help me stay in some moves longer and reduce some psychological hurdles. Instead of trailing with a fixed tick amount like ATM, it can be programmed to trail to a variety of moving averages...


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  #187 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Here is a tool I've had for a few years that I've been testing out again recently. Thinking of using it under certain conditions to automate my trade management. I feel it could help me stay in some moves longer and reduce some psychological hurdles. Instead of trailing with a fixed tick amount like ATM, it can be programmed to trail to a variety of moving averages...


Great stuff,

Love the thread Lancelott, I have a very similar methodology to you, born out of my own observations too (thousands of hours watching). It's good to know I'm not crazy.

Really liked the ideas in this Youtube video, is the indicator available freely online?

Also with regards to the post about people "scoffing" at 60 ticks per week, nobody would, that's fantastic results and no doubt they will even increase with time, why stop at 5 contracts?

Wish you all the best,
Turismo


Last edited by TurismoTek; October 25th, 2014 at 04:48 PM. Reason: spelling
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  #188 (permalink)
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TurismoTek View Post
Great stuff,

Love the thread Lancelott, I have a very similar methodology to you, born out of my own observations too (thousands of hours watching). It's good to know I'm not crazy.

Really liked the ideas in this Youtube video, is the indicator available freely online?

Also with regards to the post about people "scoffing" at 60 ticks per week, nobody would, that's fantastic results and no doubt they will even increase with time, why stop at 5 contracts?

Wish you all the best,
Turismo

Yes..there's nothing like watching price action on an instrument through countless hours of screentime. If you have the type of brain that has a highly efficient pattern recognition ability, you will see market events that repeat themselves over and over. I will watch sometimes as price hits these minor areas of support and resistance..and I can predict almost to the tick..how far it will bounce. Then at other times. I can tell from how fast and strong price is moving that it will just smash right through these areas.
I'm glad you can relate to what I am doing. The indicator that does the auto trail is something I bought 2 years ago from a site called Indicator Warehouse. I haven't checked to see if they still offer it. If it is free somewhere, I don't know about it. For some reason, I rarely ever used it. I think the best time to activate it is when I am up 20 ticks or so in a trade and due to the order flow and volatilty I'm seeing, I decide to let the trade be a runner. So, I could set a large target and decide that either the target gets hit or it hits the trail.

And as far as 5 contracts go, I didn't say I would stop there. I just would stay there until I built my account up enough to safely trade 10...and so on... Hopefully I'll get there in the not so distant future.

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  #189 (permalink)
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Glad to read

Of your ongoing progress. I think you have the right attitude Lancelottrader, to keep your trading (and losses) under control. I doubt if anyone could criticize your plan to have achievable targets, to avoid the gambler mentality.
I want to make a post for those less experienced traders thinking about how many contracts they could trade.
There are 2 main issues that affect this, even assuming that one has an unlimited funds in the trading account.
1) Mack, of PATS, makes a good point that even when you are successful the stress of trading more contracts increases with each contract, to the point where you just cant add any more and still keep your wits about you.
2) Depending on the instrument and time frame, there are only so many contracts one can trade before one affects the order flow, which then changes your trading parameters. the most successful trader I ever met, or for that matter, know of, trades oil on a short time frame and would not trade more than 10 contracts because of this. I have read the ES number is more like 50 on the short term. Of course if you are trading that many contracts you are really an institutional trader and are probably going to use more sophisticated entry and exit tools than most of us need or have access to.
So people shouldn't get caught up with the idea of just multiplying contracts = more money.
Lancelot is right to keep the greed monster under control.

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  #190 (permalink)
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trvlntrdr View Post
Of your ongoing progress. I think you have the right attitude Lancelottrader, to keep your trading (and losses) under control. I doubt if anyone could criticize your plan to have achievable targets, to avoid the gambler mentality.
I want to make a post for those less experienced traders thinking about how many contracts they could trade.
There are 2 main issues that affect this, even assuming that one has an unlimited funds in the trading account.
1) Mack, of PATS, makes a good point that even when you are successful the stress of trading more contracts increases with each contract, to the point where you just cant add any more and still keep your wits about you.
2) Depending on the instrument and time frame, there are only so many contracts one can trade before one affects the order flow, which then changes your trading parameters. the most successful trader I ever met, or for that matter, know of, trades oil on a short time frame and would not trade more than 10 contracts because of this. I have read the ES number is more like 50 on the short term. Of course if you are trading that many contracts you are really an institutional trader and are probably going to use more sophisticated entry and exit tools than most of us need or have access to.
So people shouldn't get caught up with the idea of just multiplying contracts = more money.
Lancelot is right to keep the greed monster under control.

Very good points..I remember a few years back, trading forex, I managed to get up to 10 standard lots ($100 a pip)and it really affected my nerves. I obviously wasn't ready mentally..or skill wise..either. My heart would race when i was in a trade and my face would turn all red. I bet if I had taken my blood pressure at some of those moments..the readings would have been pathologically high.

That is a terrible state to make trading decisions under. I had some horrible losing days back then...with no max daily drawdown limits. I won't even get into how much money I lost because I would be embarrassed to admit it.

This is one of the reasons I have been so cautious now. I don't want to hurt my health..or my trading account. So I am slowly ramping things up and only trading 1 contract until I am convinced I can achieve certain goals for several months in a row. Then I will go to 2 and stay there until I am psychologically ready to trade more.

People that have never gotten past SIM have no idea the stress involved in trading large contract size, especially if you are not ready. I wish I could go back and undo so many of the foolish trading mistakes I made.

Anyhow, I appreciate your comments and I agree with you.
By the way, if you have any good tips from your friend that Trades CL successfully, I am always open to good ideas.

Lance

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