Yes, I understand what you mean about the videos. I think i made this last one, because it really was able to capture CL on a day where it was moving from high order flow..and I was pointing out that even though my entries were a bit late on some trades..the momentum was able to carry them through.
I may take your advice and do really short ones instead. 10 to 15 minutes is a pretty big commitment of time and attention for someone.
Failure is not an option
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I dont know if you are trading today, but CL is very choppy,dont think is good at all for your system, small stops getting killed. I am trading sim today, trying to count waves up and down and its working pretty good.
The following user says Thank You to meow for this post:
Good Observation..Very difficult day..lots of false moves. Very hard to determine any true direction. I made a 20 tick win in the first few minutes of the open. Then gave it back by losing the next two in a row. So, I practiced some NQ scalps on SIM for a bit. Managed to catch a quick 20 tick move on CL when it made a fast, strong move around 10:40 ish est. That's when I called it a day. There are days when you have to just accept the conditions aren't favorable and either sit on the sidelines or trade an instrument that is moving well.
Update: Funny as I was writing this (a little after 12 pm)..I heard my cl tick strike going off very strongly. I just managed to catch 30 ticks on the strong move breaking through 83.00
The strange thing about CL lately is that it's making very strong moves after 12 pm..and in the past it was mostly pretty slow after that time.
I watched some of your videos, you enter the trades many times on the crossing of that "Black spine" from the Logical forex. What is the closest MA to that black spine? I want to try and substitute it.
After reviewing many months of trading data, it appears Wednesday, the day the Oil inventory report comes out, is when I most likely have a bad day. I have hit my max drawdown more times on this day than any other day.
It's also a day, when due to the high volume, you can get some tremendous runners..in both directions often. Today was a day like that.
Before the report comes out, some days can be choppy since many institutional traders wait for the numbers before committing to a big position. Some days you get decent moves ahead of it, but not always.
I seem to do better if I wait a half hour after the report to trade. The early swings, when it first comes out, can be quite unpredictable and a small stop is virtually guaranteed to get hit.
In order to reduce my risk and stop having Wednesdays that literally ruin my week, I am going to apply the following rule: I will only allow a max drawdown of 20 ticks total on this day..instead of the 40 tick drawdown on other days. This can be two consecutive losers of 10 ticks..or 1 loser of 20 ticks. Again the post oil report moves, if timed properly, can be extremely rewarding. Today, after 11..it moved up over 100 ticks and then quickly reversed over 130 ticks. However, trying to trade it with close to a 10 tick stop would have been extremely difficult to time. I think my best results will come from waiting untill after 11, then taking a good entry with a 20 tick stop. If I lose I'm done for the day with no real bad losing day. If I win, I will keep going and try to get the most out of the high volume moves.
Because of the high frequency of losing days on Wednesday, this will have to be my new rule.
Failure is not an option
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The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
I agree with you in terms of limiting risk...BUT inventory is a great way to make fast money....you just have to be on the right side of the move....and here is an interesting tidbit....the movers are already positioned for the move...well in advance....they know whats coming more or less long before we do....and so you will often see a head fake in one direction prior to the move in the opposite direction.
Ok so keep that in mind...
Now for the good part....the set up you would ordinarily take usually appears 15-45 minutes ahead of the number....its not always a small stop as you know....and 20 can sometimes be inside the liquidity vacuum and thus gets filled and yet not have the price printed on the screen....its happened to me a couple of times although not recently.
So this means you can look for your entry well before the number and just hold through it....keep in mind there's usually some violence in the first couple seconds but if you can withstand that, the money is there....
Today was a good example at least for me of a 50/50 set up....so I traded it small but I was uncertain because not all my references were lined up like I want to see them...but the near term trend was down and so watching the dom, I just clicked in....and it was all good from there.....
If this isn't something you feel you can do or even think is prudent, then by all means don't...but the method is there if you want to....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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