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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

  #161 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,397 received

Explaining the Contradictions

My last entry was about how I scalped 80 ticks last Friday..10 ticks at a time. Those who have followed my thread probably recall me mentioning my system tries to win 2 to 3 times what it loses..and I usually keep my stops at 10.
So, now it seems I completely changed things by doing 10 tick scalps...Well...yes and no.

The better I get as a Trader, the more I realize there are no absolutes..besides having a set of rules in place to control risk. When we try to fit a rigid system around a market that can behave different on different days, the lack of flexibility can be restricting and counterproductive. Also, if someone has a particular strength as a Trader, one should put that strength to good use.

I happen to be very good at understanding CL price action..and how it behaves during different market condition. This comes from watching it over 5 hours a day for close to 6 years straight.

I also know my weaknesses..which is that I tend to get anxious in a trade that loses momemtum and wavers. For example..1 minute I'm up 10 ticks and the next minute I'm down 7..and the longer I'm in a trade like that..the more anxious and impatient I get. Sometimes those trades win..sometimes they don't. I just don't like them.

The more I learned about price action, the more I understood how price forms these congestion areas..which my software conveniently draws out. These can also be considered minor areas of support and resistance. Depending how strong a move is.. price will do one of three things.

1. It will fail at the price congestion level and reverse.

2. It will bounce back a few ticks..then resume it's direction.

3. It will smash through the level and go to the next level.

The more I have watched price during different levels of orderflow and momentum..the more I can accurately predict how it will react through those areas. My problem is often I am up 15 ticks or so..I can tell the orderflow is weak..and I know I should just take the 15 ticks. But because my system calls for maybe a 20 or 30 tick target..I will sit there sometimes..and let the trade go back to even..or worse lose 10 ticks. Since I take an all in/all out approach (I tend to make more money that way) I don't peel off half my position when I'm a bit up.

Since I generally know..in the short term that price will be drawn to these next areas of congestion..I know at least where a very high probability target is. The good news is that I don't have to catch a move at the very beginning..before I know the direction or strength. I can wait till the market tips it's hand and reveals it's intention..and then, if possible time in an entry where at least 10 ticks are available before it hits the congestion/target area. This removes much of the speculation involved. Now if, while I'm in the trade..through my Tick Strike or other order flow tools show strength is building up..I can choose to hold for a much bigger target.

So the idea is..not just holding and hoping it hits some target..but tuning in to the immediate conditions of that trade and deciding to hold or not. Again this is not an easy thing to do. You have to be able to discern between random noise..and those few minutes where a definitive move is underway. If I miss the beginning, I will settle for taking chunks out of that move. So between nailing a few runners, I can also scalp, like a sniper, 10 tick pops here and there.

Anyhow, I feel confidant that my original weekly goal of 60 ticks is way too small. I'm thinking easily over 100 ticks a week will be possible.

We shall see.

Failure is not an option
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  #162 (permalink)
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  #163 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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The Crude Dude Cometh


Thought it was time for a name change on this thread..It's more appropriate since I trade mostly Crude oil.
Having said that, I have been practicing NQ trading on SIM. I seem to do quite well on volatile days with lots of strong up and down moves.
Today..made about 85 ticks on NQ. A lot of these were 20 tick moves and some were 30 and some 10 . My 2 range chart I use for oil in conjunction with some higher time frames work well on NQ. Again, for me I need those volatile days where the swings move quickly in one direction.

Today..CL didn't move as well initially as some days and I took a few trades that didn't work out..but made up for it later on.
Ideally, I would like to gain more proficiency in NQ..and have the choice to trade live on that eventually. I feel if it were moving well on a day where CL wasn't , it would increase my options. It's good to be able to cherry pick an instrument that is moving great on a particular day..or even for a particular moment. I will monitor my SIM results on NQ, while I trade live with CL.

One area that has perplexed me with my trading is the concept of Max daily drawdown. I have had days where I am 40 to 50 ticks down..then find some great setups and get back to at least even. Then I had a day a while back where I went into 'Tillt" mode and just kept going. Finally pulled the plug at 100 ticks down. So, I have decided my max losing day is going to be 40 ticks down. That is generally 4 consecutive 10 tick stop outs. I figure if that happens, either the market is off..or I'm off...and it's time to call it a day.
In the past I would tell myself..ok..I'm just going to trade Sim(after hitting daily drawdown.) Then some great looking setup shows up and I find myself switching to my live account. But now, until further notice, Max daily drawdown is going to be 40 ticks.

Here are a few of the NQ trades from today. You can see it's similar to my price action setups on Cl.

Failure is not an option
Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-nq-12-14-2-range-10_14_2014-v1.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-nq-12-14-2-range-10_14_2014-2.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-11-14-2-range-10_10_2014-scalpv3.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-nq-12-14-2-range-10_14_2014-4.jpg  
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  #164 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,397 received

Finished up well on Cl after all.

After a rather dicey start..the momentum I look for showed up, especially later in the session. Unreal to see how far down Oil keeps going. I wasn't really watching it that closely later in the afternoon or could have possibly caught more winners. I'm happy with the 70 tick day, though. here's a few of the trades I took.

Failure is not an option
Attached Thumbnails
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-11-14-2-range-10_14_2014-v1.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-11-14-2-range-10_14_2014-v2.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-11-14-2-range-10_14_2014-v3.jpg   The Crude Dude Oil Trading System-cl-11-14-2-range-10_14_2014-v4.jpg  
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  #165 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,397 received

Futures Edge on FIO

What value do you place on the webinars on FIO?

 
Made a video of my Cl trades today. These are from my actual live recording while trading. This is the type of day where one has to be nimble or it's easy to miss some good moves.


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  #166 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,397 received

I think one main reason this thread deoesn't seem to get much response is that it doesn't have the typical themes you see on most trading forums. I think people are more drawn to threads about struggling SIM traders trying to test and experiment with various strategies and systems. These threads have, I suppose a more dramatic element to them. You know, 'The Endless Quest for the Holy grail" thing. Apparently people, as a whole don't care to view videos of actual live trades being taken in real time and having setups explained in that moment.

Also, my system is fairly simplistic and that doesn't apparently resonate well with people. There isn't talk of VWAPs and balance..or the latest indicator. People want to be able to have a system that says..when my indicators does this or this line crosses that..enter a trade. Unfortunately, there is no such system. You have to understand the context in which those systems work and learn to recognize when those conditions occur.

Now, to those individuals that do view this thread consistently, I only do this for you. Since there is little discussion from others or participation..the only thing I can get out of posting here is that I write possibly one thing..that helps someone improve. If I have helped anyone..even in a small way..I am happy. I, unfortunately..like so many others went through years of failure and lost a lot of money. I am not saying I am wildly successful now. Far from it..but damn..There is definitely a light at the end of the Tunnel.

I stopped losing money, consistently a while back..which was great!! Now I am consistently profitable..not in a big way..but enough to convince me that I will eventually be able to make a living from this. My Dream was always to be able to, regardless what happens in the world..that with my little computers..I can not only survive..but thrive. I think this will soon be a reality.

Another guy on here that I think has what it takes to make a good living from this..is Brian (AKA Panda Warrior). I can tell by his motivation and thought processes..trading style.. that he is on the right track. I wish you all the best, Brian. I am sure you have struggled like I have with this crazy endeavor,..but you never gave up. Good for you.

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  #167 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks!

I for one appreciate your posts very much. It's nice to see a different take on someone trading the same instrument.

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  #168 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 714 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 619 given, 2,397 received


TheShrike View Post
I for one appreciate your posts very much. It's nice to see a different take on someone trading the same instrument.

Thank you very, much. i appreciate it.

Wow, Oil is exploding up right now..100's of ticks..and i missed it lol! What the heck is going on?

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  #169 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Thank you very, much. i appreciate it.

Wow, Oil is exploding up right now..100's of ticks..and i missed it lol! What the heck is going on?

Volatile and dangerous market yesterday. I just skipped trading it.. On the other note will review your system now, just found that thread. Did you change it much from the original one from 2011?

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  #170 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
I think one main reason this thread deoesn't seem to get much response is that it doesn't have the typical themes you see on most trading forums. I think people are more drawn to threads about struggling SIM traders trying to test and experiment with various strategies and systems. These threads have, I suppose a more dramatic element to them. You know, 'The Endless Quest for the Holy grail" thing. Apparently people, as a whole don't care to view videos of actual live trades being taken in real time and having setups explained in that moment.

Also, my system is fairly simplistic and that doesn't apparently resonate well with people. There isn't talk of VWAPs and balance..or the latest indicator. People want to be able to have a system that says..when my indicators does this or this line crosses that..enter a trade. Unfortunately, there is no such system. You have to understand the context in which those systems work and learn to recognize when those conditions occur.

Now, to those individuals that do view this thread consistently, I only do this for you. Since there is little discussion from others or participation..the only thing I can get out of posting here is that I write possibly one thing..that helps someone improve. If I have helped anyone..even in a small way..I am happy. I, unfortunately..like so many others went through years of failure and lost a lot of money. I am not saying I am wildly successful now. Far from it..but damn..There is definitely a light at the end of the Tunnel.

I stopped losing money, consistently a while back..which was great!! Now I am consistently profitable..not in a big way..but enough to convince me that I will eventually be able to make a living from this. My Dream was always to be able to, regardless what happens in the world..that with my little computers..I can not only survive..but thrive. I think this will soon be a reality.

Another guy on here that I think has what it takes to make a good living from this..is Brian (AKA Panda Warrior). I can tell by his motivation and thought processes..trading style.. that he is on the right track. I wish you all the best, Brian. I am sure you have struggled like I have with this crazy endeavor,..but you never gave up. Good for you.

I didn't see your post because you mentioned me, I saw it because I read the thread!....keep it up...I enjoy the written word....just an aside, I rarely watch people's videos. I read MUCH faster than people talk. Therefore I tend to scan stuff and if I like what I see, I'll slow down and read it....but I can't do that with video so I just skip it altogether. Most videos are too long anyway. I like 2-3 minute vids...easy to watch and move on when I'm trying to scan a bunch of different threads.

Thanks for the kind words....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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