Although I do like a good amount of volatility and momentum, I am finding it better for me to avoid news events such as Crude Oil Inventories and Interest Rate releases. Sometimes I think if I wait 10 minutes or so afterwards, there's some nice moves to be made . But the price action can remain unpredictable and chaotic for longer periods . I found myself 30 ticks down during this morning's session which was absurd since it was obvious that CL was moving erratically (I even mentioned it in my last post !)
Another mistake I will no longer make is playing these high speed breakouts of the low of the day or high of the day. When I used to trade Forex and I'd see the Pound/usd or the pound/yen crash through the highs or lows with high momentum, I would score some great trades. But with Oil, it will do these stop-Running moves that lure you in..and then reverse quickly. Then you figure it's just a bounce and you move your stop..and then it bites you! Lol. I need to remember CL doesn't move like the Pound/Yen..or anything else for that matter.
The good news is I saw a nice move on Gold (yes I've been watching Gold lately too.) and caught a nice 30 tick pop...and around 12:40 I took a Trade on CL as it started moving back up. I decided to set my target and auto trailing stop..and then walked away. I didn't want to watch it. I was happy when I heard "Target filled" and got a 45 tick move. At least I finished up slightly for the day..after my foolish mistakes from earlier.
Thanks again for your vids Lancelot - I find them really helpful. The thing I find the most helpful is the ongoing thought process while you are waiting for the trade and then in the trade. These are always the most difficult periods for me - I often find that having a more mechanical way of managing my entry and exit helps quite a bit because it allows me to just breath and wait because I know how I'm going to make the entry/exit decision in advance. Your point about using your pre-analysis to really understand the "terrain" your trade has to travel through on its way to your target is really smart. I try to do this but I am not as "active" in my chart annotation as I could be. Having this work done in advance (by ongoing analysis and annotation) seems like it really helps you stay in a trade.
I read price action and make a judgment about what I call "pace" - the relative directionality or choppiness of a market. I say it has a good pace when price move directionally with few pullbacks and relatively "clean" pullbacks. I say the pace is "bad" or "choppy" when price is not moving cleanly and has a lot of erratic back and forth. This helps me with stop placement and waiting for a trade to hit a target. But I like your use of prior areas of congestion and S/R as tools to help predict or anticipate how choppy a trade might behave once you're in it and waiting for your target.
Thanks again - hope you find the motivation to record more vids - they're def helpful for me.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
Great comments, Surly. I like your concept of "Pace." Identifying early on in the session, they type of conditions that are prevailing is incredibly important. Many people watching 5 minute candles close..find out that the market is choppy way too late. Now, of course, you can have hours of chop and then a great move will come out of nowhere...but overall, I am going to be way more careful and ignore a lot of setups in those conditions.
I find that mapping out those little price congestion areas allows me to anticipate those bounces that show up. Plus it helps time an entry so you don't have to have a large stoploss.
Sorry for the late response, just noticed this. No, the indicator at the bottom has nothing to do with time. The time numbers are simply standard Ninja Trader format. The thing with the green little bars is from Logical Forex. It's called the Watchdog indicator. It turns different colors depending on speed of price and the interaction of price at certain levels with other indicators. I honestly don't pay a lot of attention to it, but sometimes it gives additional entry confirmation.