Crude Speculation works both ways - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Crude Speculation works both ways
Updated: Views / Replies:1,946 / 10
Created: by liquidcci Attachments:1

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 1  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Crude Speculation works both ways

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader, r-trader
Favorite Futures: CL, NG, TF, NQ, YM, GC, ES
 
liquidcci's Avatar
 
Posts: 862 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 609 given, 1,051 received

Crude Speculation works both ways

Everyone gets in an uproar about oil speculators pushing prices up. No one gets upset when they push them down. In the end I think speculators have very small long term effects on average price of oil. Short term it gets pushed around up and down and it balances out in the end.


"The recent fall in the price of oil has been partly caused by speculation in the oil market, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum-Exporting Countries (Opec), told CNBC Tuesday.


Getty Images
"Speculation has just taken a huge chunk off the price," El-Badri said, after US crude futures fell to near a three-week low Tuesday morning.

"There are a lot of factors in the price we're seeing but one of them is speculation."


News Headlines

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to liquidcci for this post:
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: TF
 
bluemele's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 3,806 given, 2,826 received


I somewhat agree.

Small retail traders are not the issue. OIL should be limited to bonafide Hedgers over a certain amount and I think the big issue is several firms have 'waivers' to trade unlimited amounts of ES, CL etc..

We fix that along with our political system and we have a winner.

Reply With Quote
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader, r-trader
Favorite Futures: CL, NG, TF, NQ, YM, GC, ES
 
liquidcci's Avatar
 
Posts: 862 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 609 given, 1,051 received


bluemele View Post
I somewhat agree.

Small retail traders are not the issue. OIL should be limited to bonafide Hedgers over a certain amount and I think the big issue is several firms have 'waivers' to trade unlimited amounts of ES, CL etc..

We fix that along with our political system and we have a winner.

Problem is bluemele once they start regulating it I am convinced they will ruin it for the small traders. The big guys will always find a way around any regulation and the small guys get left holding the bag. That being said I wish politicians would just leave it alone.

I also believe the large players are subject to overall supply and demand. They make the ups and downs larger. But the ups offset the down and the downs offset the ups. So in the end I don't believe it effects the end user over time that much. At times we pay more than we should and at times we pay less than we should.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Reply With Quote
 
  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: TF
 
bluemele's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 3,806 given, 2,826 received

I agree on the longer term that yes, the big guys move markets further and deeper. However it is a matter of 'perception' in my opinion.

If speculators show a certain basis of trading contracts and that spikes during times of increased pricing people draw conclusions that it is the speculators. I for one do believe that GS and other firms are a large part of the issue.

Also, 'changing' the rules isn't the case. Bonafide Hedging is a requirement for all FUTURES markets and those 15 or so firms were all granted 'waivers' back in the day through corrupt politics.....

Basically these firms had made there way into the SEC/CFTC and have changed the rules with few noticing.

So... When the news media comes out from a reporter who doesn't know shite about shite and they write that speculators contracts have gone up to x% of the overall market then yes, it does have an effect.

Just my 2 cents... The issue though is that the large speculators will probably be left in the game with the small ones' taken out.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to bluemele for this post:
 
  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,332 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 4,579 given, 10,313 received

you certainly made some good points.

this is not for arguing, only the view from the other side:

if speculators wouldn't have pushed the price up, there would be no need to push it back down. either way, lovely play field for some "speculators".

you say: "At times we pay more than we should and at times we pay less than we should". what would you say was the last time we payed less than we should? or with other words, how do you determine what a fair price is? is today's price (~87) too low?

Reply With Quote
 
  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: TF
 
bluemele's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 3,806 given, 2,826 received

I think 87 is too low.

I would like to see 300.00 and keep it there for at least 3 years.

Yes, it would be the next great depression, etc.. Yes, it would wreak havoc, yes it is lunacy.

I see no other way to ween the babies off the oil.

I think we all agree that having oil in our lives is both good and bad. Having it as a primary source of transportation and commerce is well.... Challenging...

Reply With Quote
 
  #8 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader, r-trader
Favorite Futures: CL, NG, TF, NQ, YM, GC, ES
 
liquidcci's Avatar
 
Posts: 862 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 609 given, 1,051 received


Silvester17 View Post
you certainly made some good points.

this is not for arguing, only the view from the other side:

if speculators wouldn't have pushed the price up, there would be no need to push it back down. either way, lovely play field for some "speculators".

you say: "At times we pay more than we should and at times we pay less than we should". what would you say was the last time we payed less than we should? or with other words, how do you determine what a fair price is? is today's price (~87) too low?

Couple years ago oil went under $40. So for a time we enjoyed low gas prices that speculators played a partial role in making happen if you believe speculators influence the market in a large way. I am not saying that is a fair price or $140 is a fair price. We all know the producer nations manipulate price of oil by restricting supply and opening up supply. It was obvious though based on the mean so to speak $140 was to high as was under $40 to low a few years back. What price should actually be depends who you ask. They have a much bigger effect on price than speculators. I do not believe speculators set the trend at least in long term they speculate based on market factors. Take them out and my bet is you would still have big swings. Take them out and the big producer nations might even have more control to manipulate the market.

I am not saying speculation has no influence on the market. I am saying they tend to ride trends setup up by the market itself and often push them to extreme both ways. The push to extremes means there are times we all pay lower and there are times we all pay higher.

My other point is if regulators move in the big guys who possibly do things in a questionable way will find a way around it. While the small guys will get saddled with regulations that may keep them out of the game.

Just all my incoherent opinion.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to liquidcci for this post:
 
  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,332 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 4,579 given, 10,313 received


liquidcci View Post
Couple years ago oil went under $40. So for a time we enjoyed low gas prices that speculators played a partial role in making happen if you believe speculators influence the market in a large way. I am not saying that is a fair price or $140 is a fair price. We all know the producer nations manipulate price of oil by restricting supply and opening up supply. It was obvious though based on the mean so to speak $140 was to high as was under $40 to low a few years back. What price should actually be depends who you ask. They have a much bigger effect on price than speculators. I do not believe speculators set the trend at least in long term they speculate based on market factors. Take them out and my bet is you would still have big swings. Take them out and the big producer nations might even have more control to manipulate the market.

I am not saying speculation has no influence on the market. I am saying they tend to ride trends setup up by the market itself and often push them to extreme both ways. The push to extremes means there are times we all pay lower and there are times we all pay higher.

My other point is if regulators move in the big guys who possibly do things in a questionable way will find a way around it. While the small guys will get saddled with regulations that may keep them out of the game.

Just all my incoherent opinion.

very good points, thank you.

again not trying to argue. but looking at the chart and remembering the huge financial crisis and the global meltdown we had at that time, I would say $40 was not necessarily cheap.

but again, that move from $50 to $150 and back down to $40 is very questionable imho.

Attached Thumbnails
Crude Speculation works both ways-2011-09-20_1507.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader, r-trader
Favorite Futures: CL, NG, TF, NQ, YM, GC, ES
 
liquidcci's Avatar
 
Posts: 862 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 609 given, 1,051 received



Silvester17 View Post
very good points, thank you.

again not trying to argue. but looking at the chart and remembering the huge financial crisis and the global meltdown we had at that time, I would say $40 was not necessarily cheap.

but again, that move from $50 to $150 and back down to $40 is very questionable imho.

Sure thing appreciate your comments. I think it was moved by speculators over shooting reality but it found its mean.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to liquidcci for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Crude Speculation works both ways

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
G7 to Seek Ways to Prop Up Global Economic Growth Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 September 5th, 2011 10:40 PM
Fed Scorecard: Five Ways QE2 Worked—And Where It Failed Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 June 30th, 2011 04:20 PM
Five Ways Investors Can Play The Turmoil in the Middle East Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 January 31st, 2011 04:10 PM
Good Earnings, Bad Economic Reports Tug Stocks Two Ways Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 17th, 2010 04:40 AM
CHK Speculation tr3nt Traders Hideout 1 July 14th, 2009 04:52 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:27 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-17 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.82.56.95