NASDAQ desk, just getting ready to hit the floor when The Education of a Speculator was released. It was not that long before then that I would write a "B" on my left hand and an "O" on my right had to avoid getting confused when the orders came furious. I bought the book at the airport on the way to my honeymoon...a stunt that I do not recommend.
That book, which I'd recommend to anyone, was seminal in the development of a new traders approach to risk.
So posts like the ones in this thread are very interesting, as all yours are, Gary. I really appreciate the way and the things you share here. No doubt you are of my mentors generation in both experience and status. Your contribution enriches my experience, reminds me that I can still learn so much more, and keeps my focus and perspective in line.
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Thank you, Dan. I appreciate your comments and praise. You are one of a handful on this forum that gets it. What i find ironic, is a post like the "vic interview" goes largely unnoticed and unappreciated, judging by the acknowledgement and feedback it has received. We are talking about one of the most successful traders, and one of the most progressive thinkers , the world of trading has ever seen. Gaining an insight into how someone like that thinks, what he looks at, and what he DOESN'T look at, is nothing short of priceless. But instead, people are more interested in the latest indy, or the latest reinvention of-the-wheel - some repackaged way-of-trading, that dates back to when we drew charts by hand.
Last edited by tigertrader; January 14th, 2014 at 05:34 PM.
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from the honeymoon, having read the book twice in that two week period, I got a copy of the daily charts...remember the paper ones that came in a book?...and I headed down to UofC to "retrace" Neiderhoffer's steps. Then of course, I went to the horse track at Arlington Park where I watched and interviewed some of the sage horse guys based on Vic's views.
Shit, if I actually could have met the guy!
So in that period I was able to crate the basis from which I would approach risk and really push my size and do so with respect, not fear.
I can totally relate to your lament. I though, feel like I can't or shouldn't badger you about things that I wish I could have experienced myself. Rather I've been trying to draw those valuable lessons and stories out by encouraging posts. I do think there are some that might pick up on it. It is the reason I asked if there was a way to stalk specific members.
Be well Gary. Thanks for the time and the dialogue.
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Does this mean that you are tape reading without realizing it? Is your subconscious seeing patterns your conscious mind misses? What do you mean by "getting lucky"?
I always believed that HFT would become a technological arms race where eventually everyone would have the same weapons and the same information, at which point excess profits would be competed out of the marketplace. What happens then?
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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Next-Generation Trading Using Artificial Intelligence
anyone who has been trading for a while understands that it never gets easier to make money, it always gets more difficult - those who who seek to control and profit, tell us it is for our own good, but inevitably it only serves to tilt the playing field more in the flexions' favor -
improvement means deterioration, it's the cynical observation that is the thesis behind hutber's law
I share the same view. Back in the days when market participants were less informed maybe one could trade on statistical models. But now most traders are "informed traders" and also there are plenty of algos out there so there is less and less edge in this kind of approach I believe. I would argue that trading is about probabilities at all! Price imbalance (=movement in price) never occurs only by chance (talking about meaningful swings, not just noise). That being said a losing trade is never bad luck but lack of information or the proper way of digesting available information.
The complexity of evaluating information makes it difficult to teach someone how to trade. The essence of a good trading decision is how well one can weight different kind of information which essentially keeps markets almost stable. (Price movement equals the magnitude of imbalance; hence no price movement - which is a common state in the markets - represent near perfect equilibrium).
When making a trading decision I ask myself:
What is the big picture? What are the big fundamental driving forces?
What is the market anticipating shorter term?
How others are positioned? Where are the significant levels? Where are the stops? Who are the weaker hands? (Why?)
Is it a ranging or a trending market? Where are we in the trading session? How can news change perception?
For me it just seems stupid to follow a rule-based technical system which is a lot of times obviously wrong. Also each system (set of rules) have best results during a CERTAIN period of time or cycle in the market. Keeping those same rules for a different market environment is perfect receipt for disaster If someone wants to trade based on rules, he better have a set of systems which fit different market cycles but then again it become discretionary, isn't it?
ps.: I also think it is important to know the products, FX is mostly about sentiment and STOPS; bonds are about liquidity and sentiment, indicies are about sentiment and momentum.
Anyway, let me ask you tigertrader: why do you keep referring to the 30Y bond, isn't the 10Y better to trade?
Why do you trade ES and ZB?
Last edited by Yuri57; January 16th, 2014 at 04:21 PM.
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i watch everything - trade the es, zb, gc, maybe some 6e & other instruments if event driven
tying for more of a portfolio approach, but everything is so correlated now, that it almost doesn't matter
however, if you break down the trade to range, trend, carry (as you suggested) you can not only fit your methodology to the type of market, but also achieve an alternative form of diversification in your portfolio
addressing your question...old habits die hard -i've traded the 30 year contract since its inception, and i like the big tic
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