right next to BAL. I think BAL left the floor in late 1999 or early 2000. Thank about perfect timing!
@tigertrader I wonder Gary if you see HFT as having a similar impact on screen based trading as the screen had on the pit based trading. Do you think misprice or inefficiencies will be (or are they already) totally eliminated? What then is left, directional short term speculation.
Last few days I think I've seen a correlation developing back between the $ and ES something that for the most part has been absent for years, imo.
What would you say are the main areas of focus in determining the "state of the trade/trading" going forward?
when i first started trading more than 40 years ago markets were undeniably inefficient; information was extremely asymmetric, spreads were large, audit trails were nonexistent, and there weren't any computers, nor the internet. a long career in the markets has afforded me the perspective to see how the markets have changed. invariably, the market’s metamorphosis is due to government regulations, changes in order handling rules/reg ats, market fragmentation/dark pools, the exchanges going public, global economic shocks, systemic market shocks (flash crash), the advent of indexed instruments/etfs, electronic trading, algo/hft driven trading and market-making, decimalization, central bank policy/qe-zirp, the law of ever-changing cycles and most importantly advances in information processing and the internet. what's most troubling now, is not that the markets continue to change, but the rate at which they are changing.
progressively weaker statistical regularities are already the result of the changes in the marketplace as a result of the above factors. When I asked Ralph Vince how much longer we have before all exploitable price-to-price relationships will be mined out, and trading ceases to be profitable, he replied, “ I wonder if all the price-exploitable relationships aren;t mined out right now even -- the only thing making some things still appear as such being the second arcsine law. I'm beginning to think that unless you can find something that is profitable, by virtue of a CAUSAL relationship, it may well fall into this category. Such things are very hard to find (of course!) but are likely the only thing worth backtesting (at which point, what would be the point of backtesting it then?” vince may have been overly pessimistic in his assessment, but he may not be that far off. the markets may remain tradeable for 10 more years or 20 more years, but they will inevitably become more difficult to trade as they move forward. i can bear witness to the fact that today’s markets are extremely more efficient and offer far less opportunity to profit from any inefficiencies than they did 2 years ago, nevertheless 40 years ago.
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I've felt like it is past that point or right on the precipice of that point for a while now. Often, relative to the past, my trading seems somewhat random, like I'm trading the noise and getting lucky. Exploitable, repeatable edge? I could try to state that case but I cant say that I really believe my own case. CAUSAL relationship that is identifiable and repeatable.
This surfaces when I show someone how I do things and they ask why this one but not that one? What you looked for here is also present in this other case. Since the answer doesn't fit a entry metric and is discretionary in nature many guys can not duplicate it.
I need to figure out if and how to change to meet the changes in the market. The game has changed yet remains winnable, but significant consistent trading profit seems hared now that ever.
Thanks for the insight tigertrader.
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in reality it was a an e-mail correspondence with the “chairman” (victor niederhoffer) from earlier this morning that somehow reminded me of the eponymously named movie from 1981(My Dinner with Andre). there is a lot to learn about trading from the dialogue contained within, but there is an equal amount to be gleaned, from what is not said. vic’s characteristic slant on the market is on display, along with his humanism and humility. as always, i was humbled by his insight and intelligence.
tt: neglected to take my profit in gold
there's an old hungarian proverb
(the palindrome can confirm)
you can only re-heat stuffed cabbage, so many times
before it falls apart
i had just covered my longs, at a small profit, after having +$3,000 in-the-trade
seconds later, gold sold off, almost $10
And yet. You cannot eat breakfast all day. How many days in a row have you profited from gold on the long side. ? -v
tt: it has been a golden year
That's what I figured. " You cannt have breakfast all day nor is it the plite of a sinner when breakfast is taken away to turn his attention to dinner -v
tt: they do like to dress it up on tuesdays so they can hit it on wednesday
I meant gold bullish over nite. -v
tt: as did i
nibbling on some longs as i write
I will wait until 1pm -v
tt: i'm taking a shot at playing the short hop
no doubt, one would be sagacious to wait
There is always a doubt. Spu should have a very good afternoon -v
tt: i hate to say it...
but it is turnaround-tuesday
Yes. That a hoary old thing from our days in the fray - v
minutes before 13:00
Not be buying gold at 1300 a bonds and gold down much -v
tt: roger, that
was just taking partial profits on my 42.80 purchases
with a keen eye on clearing the table
I don't wish to belabor you with random thoughts, (albeit quantified), but since I said I was buying and I am not, I noted it. One is hopeful that Mr. Fisher will say something bearish and give one an opportunity tobuy spu again. -v
tt: please feel free to share your thoughts, at any time
it's always a treat and a privilege
btw: covered the balance @45.50
looking to dine with the spoos now
Last edited by tigertrader; January 14th, 2014 at 04:34 PM.
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