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Gold - I'm calling the top
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Gold - I'm calling the top

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Gold - I'm calling the top

I will add a bit more later, just wanted to get it out there now.

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  #3 (permalink)
Fortitudo et Honor
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You might want to wait to hear what helicopter Ben has to say...

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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cpi65 View Post
I will add a bit more later, just wanted to get it out there now.

a hunch ? or some technical or fundamental reason. I thnk this sucker is going to $2500 or more.

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coming into gold buying season, may be hard to get back in , maybe not ....


"High gold price dents demand in India
Customers refrained from making fresh gold purchases and physical demand for the yellow metal was weak, with market participants scrambling to raise cash to meet margin calls in a battered stock market."


Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website High gold price dents demand in India - GOLD ANALYSIS | Mineweb

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
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shah1266 View Post
a hunch ? or some technical or fundamental reason. I thnk this sucker is going to $2500 or more.

I'm looking for $2700 myself. Bought in @920 two years ago.

The dollar is being devalued and it is collapsing.

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I have been long since 2006, when I first started trading commodities. I honestly think we will see $2000, but I also think that it will crash at some point... But that might just be because I've been holding it long enough to get paranoid...

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Trading Apprentice
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In 2008, gold (and especially silver) were taken to the cleaners along with equities and I liquidated a lot of trading funds to buy physical. Sold a large chunk of my 2008 PM purchases in the silver blow off this year, expecting them all to roll over with equities again. Amazing(ly scary that) this time gold held ground, and usdx only bounced weakly. Notice didn't say 'US dollars'; aside from coins, they're not in circulation anymore. So long as M1 grows, I suspect gold can gain in nominal (taxable!) terms. From this point onward however, I'm not sure if true outsize gains (in purchasing power parity vis a vis other commodities) will be forthcoming, and nominal volatility will be very high as the powers that be attempt to maintain fiat dominance (keeping the majority of proles in paper assets and unbacked virtual currencies) under Metcalf's law. That's my weakly held hypothesis at this moment in time, dispose of as you wish.

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Right, well the price action reversed on me pretty much as soon as I posted this message, basically rallying from the lows of the day to finish near the highs. So that is not ideal in terms of executing a trade, but the idea still stands.

Right, I'm sure you've all seen this before, but look at these three graphs:

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Now, the first one is obvious, the second one is a monthly chart of crude, the last one is a monthly chart of Gold. So, the first part of my view is obviously that I think Gold is a Bubble (lots of people think that), but more specifically we are now in the latter stages of the "mania" phase as shown on the first graph.

Now, some other points that I think worth mentioning...

By my reckoning, todays volume in the Comex gold contract is a record high in the 20 years that I can see, so it's pretty safe to say it's a record high. Now, I look at the high volumes, and the price action, and i think "who else is left to buy this thing?!?!?!"... for whatever reason, supply has entered the market and there isn't anybody smart to pick it up (bad terminology, I hate the idea of "smart money", it's just an excuse made by losing traders in my experience) - anyway, large long positions are being liquidated here. Thats what the chart says to me.

Secondly, look at this 4hr chart::

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2 things strike me as noteworthy here - 1), look at the wicks on those candles.. this baby is whippy! chop chop chop all over. 2) the exhaustion gap from the beginning of the week, which look even worse if you exclude Globex ETH (chart is the hourly):

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Now, in having shown how I see the price action from the charts, a note about the currect economic scenario and what it means for Gold...

... I am not a fundamental analyst of the Gold market. I don't even trade commodities, or use a global macro approach in my trading (bond scalper); but if I take a step back and look at the bigger picture...

* People are saying that because the US was downgraded, the dollar is weaker and Gold should go up*

Actually, the Dollar is as strong as it was 4 months ago, a year ago. An S&P analyst doesn't change that.

* Real money managers are looking at rebalancing their asset allocations *

Which would you rather have at these levels, Gold or Stocks?

* QE3 is on the way - more money supply => it costs more in Gold *

Well, tbh, this is precisely the straightforward, logical sort of argument that loses people money. "the markets can stay irrational...". Everyone is saying Gold should go up, so take the contrarian position. It won't take long before longs feel the pain and capitulate.

And, basically, that is it. If Gold prints above todays high, that does not invalidate my reasoning. I believe we are in the final stages of the bubble, and I would look to be aggressive (If it doesn't go into profit immediately, close it. tight stops. Have more than one go if you need to) selling short gold when my particular strategy gave me signals.

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and, one a more holistic note, some of the best trades that you can make are when the shit is hitting the fan. People are scared of selling into this rally, which is what makes it an attractive proposition

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